You are right in that the situation inherently isn't wildly different, and as long as there is a will to resist within the Ukrainian populous, Russia will not a

You are right in that the situation inherently isn't wildly different, and as long as there is a will to resist within the Ukrainian populous, Russia will not achieve their objectives in the long run. But there is the aspect of potential over reliance on Western support by Ukraine, which if cut, the effects on the moral might even outweigh the effects on the defense capabilities, and both would be reduced given halt/pause of Western support