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I worked as a prop trading quant (mostly market making). I'm not sure about just calling anything a hedge fund. It's a terrible term used by folks that don't kn

I worked as a prop trading quant (mostly market making). I'm not sure about just calling anything a hedge fund. It's a terrible term used by folks that don't know what their actual financial business is. I wouldn't touch professional trading without a lot of information infrastructure built up (particularly volatility modelling, event tracking (related to vol), and tracking of margin utilization efficiency). Its the same as those folks that love to draw all over price graphs with nonsense about Bolinger bands and Fibbonacci numbers, when they don't even know what the resting book looks like. I do imagine these folks are much better at channeling Nostradamus than I, though. All this talk about "resistances" around round numbers. Instead of pretending to be guessing, JUST LOOK AT THE RESTING ORDERS. A lot of crypto exchanges (and most crypto's chains) include L2 or L3 data, and if not, its cheap to get (since there are a thousand idiots trying to do dumb trades with profound optimism).

tim333 2y ago
I speculate a bit as a hobby and have found it's very easy to say oh this will work or that will work and then find something that goes wrong in a way you didn't expect. It's surprising how many ways it can. An example in fact is with looking at the resting orders you can think they are real but they are often kind of faked to try to drive the price one way or another, in crypto at any rate. It's easy to forget you are not just dealing with numbers but with experienced players on the other side trying to outsmart you. In fairness to the guy I think he's just trading his own money for now and looking to maybe make it into a fund down the line.
zahlman 2y ago
>All this talk about "resistances" around round numbers. Instead of pretending to be guessing, JUST LOOK AT THE RESTING ORDERS. Of course they'd be accidentally right a good fraction of the time. Because of course people place orders at round numbers; they're humans, and that's more convenient for them. And the so-called "technical analysis" creates an unconscious coordination in the market. If such analysts are telling each other that something will go up, then of course they'll buy it on the belief that it will go up, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy - an unintentional pump-and-dump. They don't even need to tell each other; they just need to use the same analysis techniques.

tim333 2y ago

I speculate a bit as a hobby and have found it's very easy to say oh this will work or that will work and then find something that goes wrong in a way you didn't expect. It's surprising how many ways it can. An example in fact is with looking at the resting orders you can think they are real but they are often kind of faked to try to drive the price one way or another, in crypto at any rate. It's easy to forget you are not just dealing with numbers but with experienced players on the other side trying to outsmart you. In fairness to the guy I think he's just trading his own money for now and looking to maybe make it into a fund down the line.

zahlman 2y ago

>All this talk about "resistances" around round numbers. Instead of pretending to be guessing, JUST LOOK AT THE RESTING ORDERS. Of course they'd be accidentally right a good fraction of the time. Because of course people place orders at round numbers; they're humans, and that's more convenient for them. And the so-called "technical analysis" creates an unconscious coordination in the market. If such analysts are telling each other that something will go up, then of course they'll buy it on the belief that it will go up, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy - an unintentional pump-and-dump. They don't even need to tell each other; they just need to use the same analysis techniques.