3 ms·
Every situation is different, and thorough thinking requires taking those differences into account, rather than using oversimplified heuristics.
by csallen 2y ago
Every situation is different, and thorough thinking requires taking those differences into account, rather than using oversimplified heuristics.
- beezlewax 2y agoI'm not sure which side of this two-sided argument you are trying to support with this comment.
- csallen 2y agoI'm against the idea that past overestimates of technological progress imply that CurrentTechPredictionX must also be an overestimate. It's a lazy way of thinking that fails to actually look at any specific details of either situation.
- cybrox 2y agoI'm not implying the current prediction >must< also be an overestimate. I'm saying be careful when adjusting your expectations based on current rapid momentum.
- bee_rider 2y agoIMO it is better not to assume a comment is trying to support one of two sides of an argument. For example, it might be critiquing the general way the argument has been framed (where the line’s been drawn between the two sides), or the method of making the argument (if everyone is sitting around looking at some obviously incomplete data and trying to tweak it to push their point, it is worth pointing out that whatever conclusion the group comes to is probably meaningless). Or it could just the a bit vague and hard to interpret.