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I disagree strongly with this mathematised notion of causality. Two things can be perfectly correlated at all observed points in history without necessarily bei

I disagree strongly with this mathematised notion of causality. Two things can be perfectly correlated at all observed points in history without necessarily being causal. There can always be some unknown variable driving change in both.

ekianjo 2y ago
Or they can also not be related at all and just happen by pure coincidence.
- ibeff 2y ago
  Right but we have the tools to rule that out. That's what the field of statistics deals with. It tells you with mathematical certainty how likely or unlikely the correlation you're observing is to be random.
  - ekianjo 2y ago
    Statistics never give you certainty. You get probabilities.
    - ibeff 2y ago
      I can't tell if you're intentionally misrepresenting what I said. I said we can tell with certainty "how likely or unlikely" something is, i.e. we can precisely calculate the probability.
ibeff 2y ago
That's what the author deals with in the first part of the article on observational studies. Randomized studies don't have that problem.