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I've been through this cycle as well, but I don't think this works the same way. I mean the only way it would work the same is if AI never reaches its promises,
by soco 2y ago
I've been through this cycle as well, but I don't think this works the same way. I mean the only way it would work the same is if AI never reaches its promises, and I don't mean AGI, but never reaches the level of the thinking of a software developer. Then yes, no replacement. But do you really think AI will never get smart enough? Because the second it gets, whoever works on that level flies out the window. A therapeut needs his hands to work, so a very complex hardware interface with a long way ahead to reproduce, but a developer's work happens directly in the computer, zero hardware replacement costs.
- taylodl 2y agoDo I see it happening in the next five years? No. Ten years? Maybe. But our workflow will have changed to accommodate AI being the primary code generator. Twenty years? The new workflow from ten years will be standard and AI will be able to competently do all code generation. Will AI replace software developers? Yes, and many of those developers will have transitioned to new work driving the new workflow. By the time AI is ready to replace the developers driving the new workflow, then there's very little at that point that humans can do, and AI can't, without assistance from humans. In other words, replacing software developers isn't our biggest problem because by the time AI can do that, nearly all humans are replaceable.
- fakemex 2y agoWhat do you mean by the AI "reaching a developers level of thinking" and if "it will get smart enough"? Because it doesn't do any thinking it predicts the statistically most likely token depending on the input.
- soco 2y agoI don't care about either wording. The moment when the form it generates based on the written requirements passes the QA.