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Developer productivity tools are developer replacement tools. If the current paradigm is: principal/senior devs design system, implemented by more junior devs,

Developer productivity tools are developer replacement tools. If the current paradigm is: principal/senior devs design system, implemented by more junior devs, and LLM tools enable the seniors to produce lots of code, then the juniors are the ones getting replaced. The next step up the stack is enabling the PMs and business people to design (and implement) the system. There is no reason to think LLM based tools are in principle incapable of that. "Software development" will still exist, but if productivity tools become so capable that your PM can crank out a dozen variations and iterate on them solo, that will lead to developer replacement.

taylodl 2y ago
IDK, I've been developing software for 40 years now and have been through several of these "developer replacement" hype cycles. Every single time what ended up happening was even more developers were required. I see this as being the same, at least for the next few years. I do believe that the ultimate end point is quite different - developers will be replaced - but that's several years away and will require major changes to the approach currently being used for software development.
- soco 2y ago
  I've been through this cycle as well, but I don't think this works the same way. I mean the only way it would work the same is if AI never reaches its promises, and I don't mean AGI, but never reaches the level of the thinking of a software developer. Then yes, no replacement. But do you really think AI will never get smart enough? Because the second it gets, whoever works on that level flies out the window. A therapeut needs his hands to work, so a very complex hardware interface with a long way ahead to reproduce, but a developer's work happens directly in the computer, zero hardware replacement costs.
  - taylodl 2y ago
    Do I see it happening in the next five years? No. Ten years? Maybe. But our workflow will have changed to accommodate AI being the primary code generator. Twenty years? The new workflow from ten years will be standard and AI will be able to competently do all code generation. Will AI replace software developers? Yes, and many of those developers will have transitioned to new work driving the new workflow. By the time AI is ready to replace the developers driving the new workflow, then there's very little at that point that humans can do, and AI can't, without assistance from humans. In other words, replacing software developers isn't our biggest problem because by the time AI can do that, nearly all humans are replaceable.
  - fakemex 2y ago
    What do you mean by the AI "reaching a developers level of thinking" and if "it will get smart enough"? Because it doesn't do any thinking it predicts the statistically most likely token depending on the input.
    - soco 2y ago
      I don't care about either wording. The moment when the form it generates based on the written requirements passes the QA.
- AndreasMoeller 2y ago
  Yes this is honestly the silliest part of the whole conversation. I am currently employing 6 software engineers in my company. If from tomorrow they were 10x more productive then I would employ 6 software engineers because that is the budget I have. Their increased productivity would lead to a faster growth and I would then have budget for more. If you increase the productivity of software engineers then people will hire more software engineers not fewer.

taylodl 2y ago

IDK, I've been developing software for 40 years now and have been through several of these "developer replacement" hype cycles. Every single time what ended up happening was even more developers were required. I see this as being the same, at least for the next few years. I do believe that the ultimate end point is quite different - developers will be replaced - but that's several years away and will require major changes to the approach currently being used for software development.

soco 2y ago
I've been through this cycle as well, but I don't think this works the same way. I mean the only way it would work the same is if AI never reaches its promises, and I don't mean AGI, but never reaches the level of the thinking of a software developer. Then yes, no replacement. But do you really think AI will never get smart enough? Because the second it gets, whoever works on that level flies out the window. A therapeut needs his hands to work, so a very complex hardware interface with a long way ahead to reproduce, but a developer's work happens directly in the computer, zero hardware replacement costs.
- taylodl 2y ago
  Do I see it happening in the next five years? No. Ten years? Maybe. But our workflow will have changed to accommodate AI being the primary code generator. Twenty years? The new workflow from ten years will be standard and AI will be able to competently do all code generation. Will AI replace software developers? Yes, and many of those developers will have transitioned to new work driving the new workflow. By the time AI is ready to replace the developers driving the new workflow, then there's very little at that point that humans can do, and AI can't, without assistance from humans. In other words, replacing software developers isn't our biggest problem because by the time AI can do that, nearly all humans are replaceable.
- fakemex 2y ago
  What do you mean by the AI "reaching a developers level of thinking" and if "it will get smart enough"? Because it doesn't do any thinking it predicts the statistically most likely token depending on the input.
  - soco 2y ago
    I don't care about either wording. The moment when the form it generates based on the written requirements passes the QA.
AndreasMoeller 2y ago
Yes this is honestly the silliest part of the whole conversation. I am currently employing 6 software engineers in my company. If from tomorrow they were 10x more productive then I would employ 6 software engineers because that is the budget I have. Their increased productivity would lead to a faster growth and I would then have budget for more. If you increase the productivity of software engineers then people will hire more software engineers not fewer.