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A useful counterexample is all the people who predicted doomsday scenarios with the advent of nuclear weapons. Just because it has not come to pass yet does no

by RajT88 2y ago

A useful counterexample is all the people who predicted doomsday scenarios with the advent of nuclear weapons. Just because it has not come to pass yet does not mean they were wrong. We have come close to nuclear annihilation several times. We may yet, with or without AI.

gretch 2y ago
>Just because it has not come to pass yet does not mean they were wrong. This assertion is meaningless because it can be applied to anything. "I think vaccines cause autism and will cause human annihilation" - just because it has not yet come to pass does not mean it is wrong.
- anigbrowl 2y ago
  No. there have not been any nuclear exchanges, whereas there have been millions, probably billions of vaccinations. You're giving equal weight to conjecture and empirical data.
  - RajT88 2y ago
    There have been tens of billions of vaccinations.
idontwantthis 2y ago
And imagine if private companies had had the resources to develop nuclear weapons and the US government had decided it didn’t need to even regulate them.
- greentxt 2y ago
  A future that may yet come.
  - RajT88 2y ago
    The Onion just had a funny video where Lakewood Church conducted a nuclear test, firing a missile over Washington. True to form, it was deadpan, and featured Joel Olsteen as a Kim Jung Un type leader.
chasd00 2y ago
i see your point but the analogy doesn't get very far. For example, nuclear weapons were never mass marketed to the public. Nor is it possible to push the bounds of nuclear weapon yield by a private business, university, r/d lab, group of friends, etc.
lxnn 2y ago
Note that we only got to observe outcomes in which we didn't die from nuclear annihilation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
achierius 2y ago
If it weren't for one guy -- literally one person, one vote -- out of three who were on a submarine, the Cuban Missile Crisis would have escalated to a nuclear strike on the US Navy. Whether we would have followed with nuclear strikes on Russia, who knows. But you trying to pretend that we didn't come incredibly close to disaster is just totally unfounded in history. Especially when you consider -- we came that close despite incredible international efforts at constraining nuclear escalation. What you are arguing for now is like arguing to go back and stop all of that because it clearly wasn't necessary.
- RajT88 2y ago
  If you think I am arguing that, then I need to write better sentences.

by RajT88 2y ago

gretch 2y ago

>Just because it has not come to pass yet does not mean they were wrong. This assertion is meaningless because it can be applied to anything. "I think vaccines cause autism and will cause human annihilation" - just because it has not yet come to pass does not mean it is wrong.

anigbrowl 2y ago
No. there have not been any nuclear exchanges, whereas there have been millions, probably billions of vaccinations. You're giving equal weight to conjecture and empirical data.
- RajT88 2y ago
  There have been tens of billions of vaccinations.

idontwantthis 2y ago

And imagine if private companies had had the resources to develop nuclear weapons and the US government had decided it didn’t need to even regulate them.

greentxt 2y ago
A future that may yet come.
- RajT88 2y ago
  The Onion just had a funny video where Lakewood Church conducted a nuclear test, firing a missile over Washington. True to form, it was deadpan, and featured Joel Olsteen as a Kim Jung Un type leader.

chasd00 2y ago

i see your point but the analogy doesn't get very far. For example, nuclear weapons were never mass marketed to the public. Nor is it possible to push the bounds of nuclear weapon yield by a private business, university, r/d lab, group of friends, etc.

lxnn 2y ago

Note that we only got to observe outcomes in which we didn't die from nuclear annihilation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle

achierius 2y ago

If it weren't for one guy -- literally one person, one vote -- out of three who were on a submarine, the Cuban Missile Crisis would have escalated to a nuclear strike on the US Navy. Whether we would have followed with nuclear strikes on Russia, who knows. But you trying to pretend that we didn't come incredibly close to disaster is just totally unfounded in history. Especially when you consider -- we came that close despite incredible international efforts at constraining nuclear escalation. What you are arguing for now is like arguing to go back and stop all of that because it clearly wasn't necessary.

RajT88 2y ago
If you think I am arguing that, then I need to write better sentences.