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I don't expect China to coordinate with the West, but I think there is a good chance that the only reason Beijing is interested in AI beyond the AI tech they ne

I don't expect China to coordinate with the West, but I think there is a good chance that the only reason Beijing is interested in AI beyond the AI tech they need to keep internal potential revolutionaries under surveillance is to prevent a repeat of the Century of Humiliation (which was caused by the West's technological superiority) so that if the Western governments banned AI, Beijing would be glad to ban it inside China, too.

philomath_mn 2y ago
That is a massive bet based on the supposed psychology of a world super power. There are many other less-superficial reasons why Beijing may be interested in AI, plus China may not trust that we actually banned our own AI development. I wouldn't take that bet in a million years.
- hollerith 2y ago
  You seem to think that if we refuse this bet, you are somehow safe to live out the rest of your life. (If you are old, replace "you" with "your children".) The discussion started when someone argued that even if this AI juggernaut were in fact very dangerous, there is no way to stop it. When I pushed back on the second part of that, you reject my push-back. On what basis? I hope it is not, "I just want things to keep on going the way they are," as if ignoring the AI danger somehow makes the AI danger go away.
  - philomath_mn 2y ago
    No, I do not expect things to just work out. I just think our best chance is for the US to be a leader in AI development and hope that we're able to develop it safely. I don't have a lot of confidence that this will be the case, but I think the US continuing to develop AI is the decision with the best distribution of possible outcomes.
  - philomath_mn 2y ago
    Also, to be clear: I reject your pushback based on my understanding of the incentives/goals/interests of nation states like China. This is completely separate from my personal preferences or hopes about the future of AI.
hcurtiss 2y ago
I find it exceedingly unlikely that if the US got rid of all its nukes, that China would too. I also find the inverse unlikely. This is not how state power (or even humans) have ever worked. Ever.
- hackinthebochs 2y ago
  Nukes are in control of the ruling class in perpetuity. AGI has the potential to overturn the current political order and remake it into something entirely unpredictable. Why the hell would an authoritarian regime want that? I strongly suspect China would take a way out of the AGI race if a legitimate one was offered.
  - hollerith 2y ago
    I agree. Westerners, particularly Americans and Brits, are comfortable or at least reconciled with drastic societal change. China and Russia have seen too many invasions, revolutions, peasant rebellions and ethnic-autonomy rebellions (each of which taking millions of lives) to have anything like the same comfort level that Westerners have.
    - hcurtiss 2y ago
      Oh, I agree that neither power wants the peasants to have them. But make no mistake -- both governments want them, and desperately. There is no universe where there is a multi-lateral agreement to actually eliminate these tools. With loitering munitions and drone swarms, they are ALREADY key components of nation-state force projection.
      - hollerith 2y ago
        I'm old enough to remember the public debate about human cloning and human germ-line engineering. In the 1970s some argued like you are arguing here, but those technologies have been stopped world-wide for about 5 decades now and counting because no researcher is willing to work in the field and no one is willing to fund the work because of reputational, legal and criminal-prosecution risk.

philomath_mn 2y ago

That is a massive bet based on the supposed psychology of a world super power. There are many other less-superficial reasons why Beijing may be interested in AI, plus China may not trust that we actually banned our own AI development. I wouldn't take that bet in a million years.

hollerith 2y ago
You seem to think that if we refuse this bet, you are somehow safe to live out the rest of your life. (If you are old, replace "you" with "your children".) The discussion started when someone argued that even if this AI juggernaut were in fact very dangerous, there is no way to stop it. When I pushed back on the second part of that, you reject my push-back. On what basis? I hope it is not, "I just want things to keep on going the way they are," as if ignoring the AI danger somehow makes the AI danger go away.
- philomath_mn 2y ago
  No, I do not expect things to just work out. I just think our best chance is for the US to be a leader in AI development and hope that we're able to develop it safely. I don't have a lot of confidence that this will be the case, but I think the US continuing to develop AI is the decision with the best distribution of possible outcomes.
- philomath_mn 2y ago
  Also, to be clear: I reject your pushback based on my understanding of the incentives/goals/interests of nation states like China. This is completely separate from my personal preferences or hopes about the future of AI.

hcurtiss 2y ago

I find it exceedingly unlikely that if the US got rid of all its nukes, that China would too. I also find the inverse unlikely. This is not how state power (or even humans) have ever worked. Ever.

hackinthebochs 2y ago
Nukes are in control of the ruling class in perpetuity. AGI has the potential to overturn the current political order and remake it into something entirely unpredictable. Why the hell would an authoritarian regime want that? I strongly suspect China would take a way out of the AGI race if a legitimate one was offered.
- hollerith 2y ago
  I agree. Westerners, particularly Americans and Brits, are comfortable or at least reconciled with drastic societal change. China and Russia have seen too many invasions, revolutions, peasant rebellions and ethnic-autonomy rebellions (each of which taking millions of lives) to have anything like the same comfort level that Westerners have.
  - hcurtiss 2y ago
    Oh, I agree that neither power wants the peasants to have them. But make no mistake -- both governments want them, and desperately. There is no universe where there is a multi-lateral agreement to actually eliminate these tools. With loitering munitions and drone swarms, they are ALREADY key components of nation-state force projection.
    - hollerith 2y ago
      I'm old enough to remember the public debate about human cloning and human germ-line engineering. In the 1970s some argued like you are arguing here, but those technologies have been stopped world-wide for about 5 decades now and counting because no researcher is willing to work in the field and no one is willing to fund the work because of reputational, legal and criminal-prosecution risk.