4 ms·

Yes, that's what the arms manufacturers want. Let's not do (much of) that.

by guiriduro 2y ago

rad_gruchalski 2y ago
why not? we’ll be throwing rainbow flags at Russians when they decide to invade?
- sgt101 2y ago
  More likely "reparations" - €500bn a year or we're coming to Berlin ! Genuinely - this is a one way bet for the Russians, smash up Estonia and extort the Germans, spend the money on more guns and then kill all the Poles. Coming to a continent near you soon!
  - ivewonyoung 2y ago
    UK and France(along with the US) have nukes, so it's a much different scenario than WW2.
    - tmnvdb 2y ago
      France and the UK have nukes precisely because they did not believe that a country would be willing to risk total destruction to protect another country.
      - sgt101 2y ago
        in every contingency - this is correct I think. It's been very important to the Nato stance to have multiple nuclear armed states, it made Soviet calculations extremely difficult. With the USA leaving the alliance I think that either a joint Euro bomb needs to be developed or Germany needs to acquire one. Perhaps a polite fiction (continuing the current one by the USA) of France providing nukes for German, Dutch, Danish and Polish war planes could be used.
    - sgt101 2y ago
      But will the UK and France bail out Germany? Yes: if Germany acts as a serious and honest partner in defence. No: if Germany refuses to be a responsible security player and swings back to Russia as soon as it can. If Germany reopens the gas pipelines and throws the balts to the wolves I think that they may find that when they need help, there will be no help. Also the UK and France have very limited nuclear capability. Yes, it's really helpful in the context of the Nato alliance. The uncertainty that the european weapons adds into any calculus of escalation really enhances the overall deterrent. Once the USA is out of the picture there is no escalation ladder, it's national extinction (and)or bust. Very unstable, untenable. I see no evidence at all of this position being altered or updated. If Germany could depend on France or the UK in a nuclear blackmail scenario then I would expect (at the least) a crash tactical nuclear weapon program to be up and running in either one or both. I also think that a four vessel continuous deterrence capability is inadequate, so I would expect much more co-ordination between France and the UK on the at sea element and/or a shift to five+ vessels. I see none of this - the opposite in fact.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
- ossobuco 2y ago
  The only current threat to EU territory is from USA to Greenland. There is no threat from Russia, as Ukraine certainly isn't part of EU and Russia has never shown hostility to EU, except in retaliation from EU hostile acts. So I would agree we need to become capable of defending ourselves, but to do so we should very quickly normalize and reestablish friendly relations with Russia and China, then make ourselves economically independent from the USA, ask them to remove all of their military bases from EU, and start to produce our own weapons.
  - mopsi 2y ago
    > Russia has never shown hostility to EU In some parallel reality, perhaps it's so. In this world, Russia has been remarkably hostile for a very long time, to the point where the entire 1300 km border between Finland and Russia - except for one crossing for freight trains - remains closed since 2023, because Russia ferried migrants from the Middle East and Africa to the Artic circle and forced them to cross the border into Finland to destabilize the country.[1] This kind of hybrid attack was launched on even a larger scale against Poland, by Belarus, with Russian support once again.[2][3] Not to mention smaller acts such as desecration of memorial sites in Latvia[4], vandalizing the car of Estonian interior minister[5], and smuggling incendiary devices on board of DHL cargo planes[6]. Greenland belongs to Denmark, and just today, Danish intelligence (FE) issued a new threat assessment[7]: According to FE, Russia is undergoing significant military reforms aimed not only at sustaining operations in Ukraine but also at preparing for potential engagements with NATO countries. /---/ While the report does not conclude that a large-scale war in Europe is inevitable, it warns that such a scenario is increasingly plausible if NATO does not reinforce its military posture. The findings indicate that European countries must accelerate their defence efforts to prevent Russia from exploiting weaknesses in the alliance. [1] https://yle.fi/a/74-20141931 https://yle.fi/a/74-20141931 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus%E2%80%93European_Union_border_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus%E2%80%93European_Union... [3] https://www.dw.com/en/poland-baltics-step-up-border-controls-amid-migrant-crisis/a-69350351 https://www.dw.com/en/poland-baltics-step-up-border-controls... [4] https://vdd.gov.lv/en/news/press-releases/vdd-requests-criminal-prosecution-for-desecration-of-memorial-site-on-behalf-of-russian-intelligence-and-security-service https://vdd.gov.lv/en/news/press-releases/vdd-requests-crimi... [5] https://www.dw.com/en/estonia-detains-10-russians-suspected-in-sabotage-plot/a-68312742 https://www.dw.com/en/estonia-detains-10-russians-suspected-... [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07912lxx33o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07912lxx33o [7] https://eutoday.net/russian-threat-beyond-ukraine/ https://eutoday.net/russian-threat-beyond-ukraine/
tmnvdb 2y ago
This does not seem like a very good basis for rational policy.
- ossobuco 2y ago
  What's the basis then? Who should we listen to, Von Der Leyen?
  - tmnvdb 2y ago
    We should probably consider the policies and weigh their pros and cons.
    - ossobuco 2y ago
      A good rule of thumb for me is to never listen people who profit from war when they tell you we need to prepare for war.
singularity2001 2y ago
people (even here) lack the fantasy to guarantee peace without armament.
- tmnvdb 2y ago
  Fantasy is precisely the right word.

Yes, that's what the arms manufacturers want. Let's not do (much of) that.

rad_gruchalski 2y ago

why not? we’ll be throwing rainbow flags at Russians when they decide to invade?

sgt101 2y ago
More likely "reparations" - €500bn a year or we're coming to Berlin ! Genuinely - this is a one way bet for the Russians, smash up Estonia and extort the Germans, spend the money on more guns and then kill all the Poles. Coming to a continent near you soon!
- ivewonyoung 2y ago
  UK and France(along with the US) have nukes, so it's a much different scenario than WW2.
  - tmnvdb 2y ago
    France and the UK have nukes precisely because they did not believe that a country would be willing to risk total destruction to protect another country.
    - sgt101 2y ago
      in every contingency - this is correct I think. It's been very important to the Nato stance to have multiple nuclear armed states, it made Soviet calculations extremely difficult. With the USA leaving the alliance I think that either a joint Euro bomb needs to be developed or Germany needs to acquire one. Perhaps a polite fiction (continuing the current one by the USA) of France providing nukes for German, Dutch, Danish and Polish war planes could be used.
  - sgt101 2y ago
    But will the UK and France bail out Germany? Yes: if Germany acts as a serious and honest partner in defence. No: if Germany refuses to be a responsible security player and swings back to Russia as soon as it can. If Germany reopens the gas pipelines and throws the balts to the wolves I think that they may find that when they need help, there will be no help. Also the UK and France have very limited nuclear capability. Yes, it's really helpful in the context of the Nato alliance. The uncertainty that the european weapons adds into any calculus of escalation really enhances the overall deterrent. Once the USA is out of the picture there is no escalation ladder, it's national extinction (and)or bust. Very unstable, untenable. I see no evidence at all of this position being altered or updated. If Germany could depend on France or the UK in a nuclear blackmail scenario then I would expect (at the least) a crash tactical nuclear weapon program to be up and running in either one or both. I also think that a four vessel continuous deterrence capability is inadequate, so I would expect much more co-ordination between France and the UK on the at sea element and/or a shift to five+ vessels. I see none of this - the opposite in fact.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
ossobuco 2y ago
The only current threat to EU territory is from USA to Greenland. There is no threat from Russia, as Ukraine certainly isn't part of EU and Russia has never shown hostility to EU, except in retaliation from EU hostile acts. So I would agree we need to become capable of defending ourselves, but to do so we should very quickly normalize and reestablish friendly relations with Russia and China, then make ourselves economically independent from the USA, ask them to remove all of their military bases from EU, and start to produce our own weapons.
- mopsi 2y ago
  > Russia has never shown hostility to EU In some parallel reality, perhaps it's so. In this world, Russia has been remarkably hostile for a very long time, to the point where the entire 1300 km border between Finland and Russia - except for one crossing for freight trains - remains closed since 2023, because Russia ferried migrants from the Middle East and Africa to the Artic circle and forced them to cross the border into Finland to destabilize the country.[1] This kind of hybrid attack was launched on even a larger scale against Poland, by Belarus, with Russian support once again.[2][3] Not to mention smaller acts such as desecration of memorial sites in Latvia[4], vandalizing the car of Estonian interior minister[5], and smuggling incendiary devices on board of DHL cargo planes[6]. Greenland belongs to Denmark, and just today, Danish intelligence (FE) issued a new threat assessment[7]: According to FE, Russia is undergoing significant military reforms aimed not only at sustaining operations in Ukraine but also at preparing for potential engagements with NATO countries. /---/ While the report does not conclude that a large-scale war in Europe is inevitable, it warns that such a scenario is increasingly plausible if NATO does not reinforce its military posture. The findings indicate that European countries must accelerate their defence efforts to prevent Russia from exploiting weaknesses in the alliance. [1] https://yle.fi/a/74-20141931 https://yle.fi/a/74-20141931 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus%E2%80%93European_Union_border_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus%E2%80%93European_Union... [3] https://www.dw.com/en/poland-baltics-step-up-border-controls-amid-migrant-crisis/a-69350351 https://www.dw.com/en/poland-baltics-step-up-border-controls... [4] https://vdd.gov.lv/en/news/press-releases/vdd-requests-criminal-prosecution-for-desecration-of-memorial-site-on-behalf-of-russian-intelligence-and-security-service https://vdd.gov.lv/en/news/press-releases/vdd-requests-crimi... [5] https://www.dw.com/en/estonia-detains-10-russians-suspected-in-sabotage-plot/a-68312742 https://www.dw.com/en/estonia-detains-10-russians-suspected-... [6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07912lxx33o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07912lxx33o [7] https://eutoday.net/russian-threat-beyond-ukraine/ https://eutoday.net/russian-threat-beyond-ukraine/

tmnvdb 2y ago

This does not seem like a very good basis for rational policy.

ossobuco 2y ago
What's the basis then? Who should we listen to, Von Der Leyen?
- tmnvdb 2y ago
  We should probably consider the policies and weigh their pros and cons.
  - ossobuco 2y ago
    A good rule of thumb for me is to never listen people who profit from war when they tell you we need to prepare for war.

singularity2001 2y ago

people (even here) lack the fantasy to guarantee peace without armament.

tmnvdb 2y ago
Fantasy is precisely the right word.