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A lot of this was down to the huge sales of the Model Y in Europe in the past year or two with subsidized loans at rock bottom rates. The lowest I saw was 0%. O

A lot of this was down to the huge sales of the Model Y in Europe in the past year or two with subsidized loans at rock bottom rates. The lowest I saw was 0%. Obviously today that's no longer the case. Also the MY is due to be replaced so a lot of would be Tesla buyers are holding off. But I don't doubt that some part, perhaps even a large part, of this is down to personality. So it'll be interesting to see what happens when the new Model Y is launched and how much they retake of this lost market share. My guess is, some, but not nearly all of it. People held their noses and bought the Tesla when they were at a huge (interest rate) discount. Tesla obviously can't give people long sub 1% loans and make a profit in 2025. For me personally (in Europe, looking for a new EV this year) I'd be happy to pay more north of a $10k premium to not have the car that says Tesla on it.

andrewinardeer 2y ago
[flagged]
- jajko 2y ago
  Not at all, its all self-inflicted. He keeps insulting most of Europe, continuously, like a rich spoiled kid for literally no gain on his part, ego is too big to have any control over it and his mental instabilities don't help. If you can respect such a man and even give him your money thats you, but many folks don't. Colleagues who own Tesla now regret buying it, literally putting those meme stickers 'I bought this car before elon went fascist'. Right leaning all of them. Its not about left-leaning, no need to spin it that way, he managed to insult literally whole spectrum of people in Europe apart from neonazis. Not many of those buying teslas as one can imagine.
  - mytailorisrich 2y ago
    I don't remember him insulting Europe, what are you referring to?
    - scarab92 2y ago
      He's been attacking European regulators, but not Europeans per se. He has business related objections to the Digital Services Act, and broader ideological objections about Europe's culture of regulation over innovation and blames that culture for Europe's stagnant economic growth.
      - mytailorisrich 2y ago
        Yeah, I think in general what he has said is true but also touches a nerve (because it is political so obviously it is polarizing, and because it is a foreign saying it, which tends to irk people anywhere irrespective of what is being said).
        computerthings 2y ago
        No, it's because it's not true, we actually like the things because they make life better for regular people, and not just the rich who exploit them. Universal healthcare, social welfare, consumer protection, environmental regulations. It's not a foreigner saying it, it's a clueless outsider who wants to get rid of protections for others he doesn't need to make more profit. That touches a nerve because hands off. We SEE the countries that have no regulations and we don't give a fuck about their total size of the economy. Thanks, but no thanks. We saw the sheer brain worms that lead to Brexit, too. If the EU is so terrible why not leave us alone instead of trying to subvert us? Let us live in squalor and do your super shiny mega success stuff that works so well for you.
        scarab92 2y ago
        > Universal healthcare, social welfare, consumer protection, environmental regulations. This is a strawman. Musk isn't attacking these things. What he is attacking is excessive regulations imposed on new technology, often pre-emptively or without significant demonstrable harm. Regulations that aren't solving any real world problem but exist for political reasons. To allow politicians to message "we'll protect you from the Americans" and to allow regulators to continue having a reason to be employed.
  - dzhiurgis 2y ago
    Was it him or was it left media reinterpreting everything into the spin. Basically self insulted. Bravo.
- alchemist1e9 2y ago
  > adversarial nation state campaign if there really is organized mass corruption then it could be an “ adversarial deep state campaign”. The claims of wrongdoing are so severe that they need to start providing the evidence publicly asap and file some charges. I honestly don’t know what to think yet but I agree with you the level of vitriol and unhinged comments is at extreme levels and even here on HN. That said he is intentionally trying to mass trigger as many people as possible likely strategically for a reason we can’t see yet.
  - ZeroGravitas 2y ago
    Suggesting that the deep state are behind online outrage at Elon while also claiming Elon is intentionally enraging people for unknown strategic reasons is a great summary of the current political moment.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
- scarab92 2y ago
  You're right about Reddit. It has become hysterical since the election. If you want an example of what left-wing conspiracy theories look like, just spend some time in the default subreddits. That said, I doubt Musk's politics have had much of a positive or negative effect on Tesla's sales. There's been a significant increase in competition at the same time as many European countries are entering recessions. That's going to be a much bigger factor.
- Certhas 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - sazz 2y ago
    Certified by agencies of the left extremist government which treats the justification as classified information. Moreover, one of these agencies is run by a left-wing comrade who is a qualified social education worker. However, the agency should actually be headed by a lawyer, as in the Thuringian law, which was simply reinterpreted in the case of Stephan J. Kramer. So yeah, that's an trustworthy argument.
  - scarab92 2y ago
    > certified fascists in Germany. Their policies are mainstream right wing policies, like favouring legal migration over illegal migration. If you care about intellectual honesty, understand that the "fascism" label applied to AFD (or Trump, Musk et al) is inaccurate and inappropriate. It's the left throwing whatever mud they can hoping some will stick.
    - dkjaudyeqooe 2y ago
      No one favors illegal migration over legal, that's just a smear and misrepresentation of the situation. Meanwhile AfD act like actual neo-Nazis: "In January 2024, it was revealed that senior members of the party, including Roland Hartwig, then advisor to party co-leader Alice Weidel, attended a meeting alongside neo-Nazi influencers, where plans for the deportation of millions of "asylum seekers", "non-assimilated people", and those with "non-German backgrounds" were discussed, including those with German citizenship and residency rights.[348] The event triggered the 2024 German anti-extremism protests. " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany#Neo-Nazi_controversies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany#Neo-Na... Clearly this AfD's choice and nothing to do with the left wing.
      - scarab92 2y ago
        They support legal migration, but not illegal migration. There's nothing extremist about that. It's a mainstream right wing policy, and one that is also popular with the general public.
- jedrek 2y ago
  That's completely untrue. Both the GOP and AfD are openly anti-EV, so their supporters are often anti-EV.
  - andrewinardeer 2y ago
    Anti-EV with the billions in tax credits they are throwing at manufacturers and purchasers? Pro-fossil fuel, yes. Anti EV? No.
    - abenga 2y ago
      I don't think those parties are the ones enacting tax credits for manufacturers and suppliers. If they had a choice, those wouldn't exist.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  > For every person who won't buy a Tesla because they disagree with Elon's political views, there is a person who would buy a Tesla because they do agree. "Yes, making Nazi salutes is good actually" is a _rather niche position_ in most of Europe (particularly in wealthy countries); even _actual neo-Nazis_ sometimes shy away from the imagery a bit.
- jayski 2y ago
  I don't think you're right. For example not every Trump supporter walks around with a MAGA hat. It's one thing to anonymously vote for Trump, it's another to make it public and deal with all the social backlash. Driving a new Tesla is pretty much a MAGA hat.
- CyberDildonics 2y ago
  The richest person in the world, who makes enough for 10 lifetimes every day off of interest bought his way into government and immediately cut funding to people starving around the world. He is trying to get rid of the department of education, OSHA, the EPA, the FDIC, banking regulations and the people investigating his aiding of russia with starlink. https://www.newsweek.com/usaid-elon-musk-starlink-probe-ukraine-2027054 https://www.newsweek.com/usaid-elon-musk-starlink-probe-ukra... What he did was identical to a classic nazi sieg heil, right down the forcefulness. https://imgur.com/UFrmbJs https://imgur.com/UFrmbJs “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” ― George Orwell, 1984 The entire world knows it is a nazi salute, and people defending it do too. This isn't "his political views", this are evil actions, it is indefensible. The person who has everything wants to take more from the people who have nothing.
scarab92 2y ago
There's also been a significant increase in competition. BYD are competing agressively across the continent, backed by Chinese subsidies, and European automakers are increasing their EV offings. For example, Volvo went from having 1 EV to 6 EV models available. Also keep in mind that many European countries entered a recession over the past year. Also keep in mind that the cost of electricity has tripled since Putin attacked Ukraine. The partisan types will ascribe Tesla's sales fall to Musk's politics, but I suspect that's actually a small effect compared to some of the broader market dynamics.
- tzs 2y ago
  Sales are also way down in Australia [1]. [1] https://electrek.co/2025/02/06/tesla-sales-crash-in-another-market-and-this-time-it-cant-blame-model-y/ https://electrek.co/2025/02/06/tesla-sales-crash-in-another-...
  - scarab92 2y ago
    All of these same market dynamics exist in Australia as well, except Australia’s recession is a per capita recession, not an aggregate recession.
huijzer 2y ago
> Tesla obviously can't give people long sub 1% loans and make a profit in 2025. I think this is not the right way to look at it. Essentially, Tesla sells the car for a price that is higher than the sum of all the input costs (the margin). Say this margin is around $10k per car. If the factories have more inventory, they could give customers a $5k discount, but they could also sell it for the full price but give a sub 1% loan. They probably loan that money for about 3 to 5%. So they only take a hit of a few procent for 2 years meaning $60k * 0.04 * 0.04 = $4800. My point is that a low percentage loan is essentially the same as discount on the purchase price. Do these continues price decreases mean that things look dire? Based on solely this information, not necessarily. Battery costs are a large part of the cost of the car, and battery costs are consistently coming down. This saves a few thousand dollars per year. So I expect prices to come down each year. That fact alone is not a problem. Having said that, we know that Tesla's margins have consistently come down for the last 3 years, and we know that Chinese cars become more competitive each year. So things aren't looking great. But again, price declines are expected and not necessarily a problem. I would say market share is the most important metric to look at.
- urthor 2y ago
  The problem is R&D. Tesla absolutely is not and will not compromise on all that self driving car R&D and other engineering work. And that's expensive.
  - jedrek 2y ago
    Except for not using LIDAR?
    - seba_dos1 2y ago
      ...or using consumer-grade parts.
- alkonaut 2y ago
  Yeah I’m aware the interest rebate is just a rebate like any other but the cost of such rebates is much higher if the baseline interest is 4% than if it’s 1%. The difference between 0% and 2% is as expensive as the subsidy between 7% and 5% but I don’t think it will sway as many customers
crimsoneer 2y ago
I honestly think a key ceo skill in this day and age is managing to side step every single culture war issue, and unhelpfully for Tesla, Elon seems to disagree with me (though clearly working out for him personally)
- jimmydddd 2y ago
  Well, I don't think most folks could name a CEO of another car company. So they seem to be doing fine in that category, but maybe not gaining any marketing advantage? I guess a great trick would be for a CEO to have a large social media presence but still side step culture war issues?
  - talkin 2y ago
    > Well, I don't think most folks could name a CEO of another car company. Yup, and I don’t care. I liked the brand better without the drama queen.
  - johnnyanmac 2y ago
    I mean, knowing the CEO of a car company only seems to be working against that car company. He's not exactly known as "The Tesla guy" anymore. > I guess a great trick would be for a CEO to have a large social media presence but still side step culture war issues? Most CEO's these days do, yes. Maybe not "large" but a noticeable precense.
- EasyMark 2y ago
  Yep look at Sundar Pachai or Tim Cook, they just always go with the flow, that's the way I prefer my CEOs when I invest in corps. It's up to a democracy to fix itself, not corporations. I don't need culture wars in corporations, those need to happen at the voting booths, Washington DC, and protests.
  - johnnyanmac 2y ago
    >I don't need culture wars in corporations, those need to happen at the voting booths, Washington DC, and protests. given America these days: what's the difference? Elon bought the election for much cheaper than Twitter.
ttepasse 2y ago
According to the more detailed data for January 2025, published by the Kraftfahr-Bundesamt: Model 3 272 Model S 13 Model X 13 Model Y 979 ∑ 1277 For comparison the data for January 2024: Model 3 695 Model S 31 Model X 33 Model Y 2393 ∑ 3152 Model Y in both Januaries is still a multiple of ~ 3.5 of the Model 3. Your theory, that people were waiting for the MY refresh doesn’t seem likely. According to my experience most people aren’t as much informed of the inside baseball when a new model arrives. Nerd stuff. Edit, Sources, the F10 Excel spreadsheets here: 2025: https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/monatl_neuzulassungen_node.html?yearFilter=2025&monthFilter=01_januar https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Mon... 2024: https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/monatl_neuzulassungen_node.html?yearFilter=2024&monthFilter=01_januar https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Mon...

andrewinardeer 2y ago

[flagged]

jajko 2y ago
Not at all, its all self-inflicted. He keeps insulting most of Europe, continuously, like a rich spoiled kid for literally no gain on his part, ego is too big to have any control over it and his mental instabilities don't help. If you can respect such a man and even give him your money thats you, but many folks don't. Colleagues who own Tesla now regret buying it, literally putting those meme stickers 'I bought this car before elon went fascist'. Right leaning all of them. Its not about left-leaning, no need to spin it that way, he managed to insult literally whole spectrum of people in Europe apart from neonazis. Not many of those buying teslas as one can imagine.
- mytailorisrich 2y ago
  I don't remember him insulting Europe, what are you referring to?
  - scarab92 2y ago
    He's been attacking European regulators, but not Europeans per se. He has business related objections to the Digital Services Act, and broader ideological objections about Europe's culture of regulation over innovation and blames that culture for Europe's stagnant economic growth.
    - mytailorisrich 2y ago
      Yeah, I think in general what he has said is true but also touches a nerve (because it is political so obviously it is polarizing, and because it is a foreign saying it, which tends to irk people anywhere irrespective of what is being said).
      - computerthings 2y ago
        No, it's because it's not true, we actually like the things because they make life better for regular people, and not just the rich who exploit them. Universal healthcare, social welfare, consumer protection, environmental regulations. It's not a foreigner saying it, it's a clueless outsider who wants to get rid of protections for others he doesn't need to make more profit. That touches a nerve because hands off. We SEE the countries that have no regulations and we don't give a fuck about their total size of the economy. Thanks, but no thanks. We saw the sheer brain worms that lead to Brexit, too. If the EU is so terrible why not leave us alone instead of trying to subvert us? Let us live in squalor and do your super shiny mega success stuff that works so well for you.
        scarab92 2y ago
        > Universal healthcare, social welfare, consumer protection, environmental regulations. This is a strawman. Musk isn't attacking these things. What he is attacking is excessive regulations imposed on new technology, often pre-emptively or without significant demonstrable harm. Regulations that aren't solving any real world problem but exist for political reasons. To allow politicians to message "we'll protect you from the Americans" and to allow regulators to continue having a reason to be employed.
- dzhiurgis 2y ago
  Was it him or was it left media reinterpreting everything into the spin. Basically self insulted. Bravo.
alchemist1e9 2y ago
> adversarial nation state campaign if there really is organized mass corruption then it could be an “ adversarial deep state campaign”. The claims of wrongdoing are so severe that they need to start providing the evidence publicly asap and file some charges. I honestly don’t know what to think yet but I agree with you the level of vitriol and unhinged comments is at extreme levels and even here on HN. That said he is intentionally trying to mass trigger as many people as possible likely strategically for a reason we can’t see yet.
- ZeroGravitas 2y ago
  Suggesting that the deep state are behind online outrage at Elon while also claiming Elon is intentionally enraging people for unknown strategic reasons is a great summary of the current political moment.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
scarab92 2y ago
You're right about Reddit. It has become hysterical since the election. If you want an example of what left-wing conspiracy theories look like, just spend some time in the default subreddits. That said, I doubt Musk's politics have had much of a positive or negative effect on Tesla's sales. There's been a significant increase in competition at the same time as many European countries are entering recessions. That's going to be a much bigger factor.
Certhas 2y ago
[flagged]
- sazz 2y ago
  Certified by agencies of the left extremist government which treats the justification as classified information. Moreover, one of these agencies is run by a left-wing comrade who is a qualified social education worker. However, the agency should actually be headed by a lawyer, as in the Thuringian law, which was simply reinterpreted in the case of Stephan J. Kramer. So yeah, that's an trustworthy argument.
- scarab92 2y ago
  > certified fascists in Germany. Their policies are mainstream right wing policies, like favouring legal migration over illegal migration. If you care about intellectual honesty, understand that the "fascism" label applied to AFD (or Trump, Musk et al) is inaccurate and inappropriate. It's the left throwing whatever mud they can hoping some will stick.
  - dkjaudyeqooe 2y ago
    No one favors illegal migration over legal, that's just a smear and misrepresentation of the situation. Meanwhile AfD act like actual neo-Nazis: "In January 2024, it was revealed that senior members of the party, including Roland Hartwig, then advisor to party co-leader Alice Weidel, attended a meeting alongside neo-Nazi influencers, where plans for the deportation of millions of "asylum seekers", "non-assimilated people", and those with "non-German backgrounds" were discussed, including those with German citizenship and residency rights.[348] The event triggered the 2024 German anti-extremism protests. " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany#Neo-Nazi_controversies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany#Neo-Na... Clearly this AfD's choice and nothing to do with the left wing.
    - scarab92 2y ago
      They support legal migration, but not illegal migration. There's nothing extremist about that. It's a mainstream right wing policy, and one that is also popular with the general public.
jedrek 2y ago
That's completely untrue. Both the GOP and AfD are openly anti-EV, so their supporters are often anti-EV.
- andrewinardeer 2y ago
  Anti-EV with the billions in tax credits they are throwing at manufacturers and purchasers? Pro-fossil fuel, yes. Anti EV? No.
  - abenga 2y ago
    I don't think those parties are the ones enacting tax credits for manufacturers and suppliers. If they had a choice, those wouldn't exist.
rsynnott 2y ago
> For every person who won't buy a Tesla because they disagree with Elon's political views, there is a person who would buy a Tesla because they do agree. "Yes, making Nazi salutes is good actually" is a _rather niche position_ in most of Europe (particularly in wealthy countries); even _actual neo-Nazis_ sometimes shy away from the imagery a bit.
jayski 2y ago
I don't think you're right. For example not every Trump supporter walks around with a MAGA hat. It's one thing to anonymously vote for Trump, it's another to make it public and deal with all the social backlash. Driving a new Tesla is pretty much a MAGA hat.
CyberDildonics 2y ago
The richest person in the world, who makes enough for 10 lifetimes every day off of interest bought his way into government and immediately cut funding to people starving around the world. He is trying to get rid of the department of education, OSHA, the EPA, the FDIC, banking regulations and the people investigating his aiding of russia with starlink. https://www.newsweek.com/usaid-elon-musk-starlink-probe-ukraine-2027054 https://www.newsweek.com/usaid-elon-musk-starlink-probe-ukra... What he did was identical to a classic nazi sieg heil, right down the forcefulness. https://imgur.com/UFrmbJs https://imgur.com/UFrmbJs “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” ― George Orwell, 1984 The entire world knows it is a nazi salute, and people defending it do too. This isn't "his political views", this are evil actions, it is indefensible. The person who has everything wants to take more from the people who have nothing.

scarab92 2y ago

There's also been a significant increase in competition. BYD are competing agressively across the continent, backed by Chinese subsidies, and European automakers are increasing their EV offings. For example, Volvo went from having 1 EV to 6 EV models available. Also keep in mind that many European countries entered a recession over the past year. Also keep in mind that the cost of electricity has tripled since Putin attacked Ukraine. The partisan types will ascribe Tesla's sales fall to Musk's politics, but I suspect that's actually a small effect compared to some of the broader market dynamics.

tzs 2y ago
Sales are also way down in Australia [1]. [1] https://electrek.co/2025/02/06/tesla-sales-crash-in-another-market-and-this-time-it-cant-blame-model-y/ https://electrek.co/2025/02/06/tesla-sales-crash-in-another-...
- scarab92 2y ago
  All of these same market dynamics exist in Australia as well, except Australia’s recession is a per capita recession, not an aggregate recession.

huijzer 2y ago

> Tesla obviously can't give people long sub 1% loans and make a profit in 2025. I think this is not the right way to look at it. Essentially, Tesla sells the car for a price that is higher than the sum of all the input costs (the margin). Say this margin is around $10k per car. If the factories have more inventory, they could give customers a $5k discount, but they could also sell it for the full price but give a sub 1% loan. They probably loan that money for about 3 to 5%. So they only take a hit of a few procent for 2 years meaning $60k * 0.04 * 0.04 = $4800. My point is that a low percentage loan is essentially the same as discount on the purchase price. Do these continues price decreases mean that things look dire? Based on solely this information, not necessarily. Battery costs are a large part of the cost of the car, and battery costs are consistently coming down. This saves a few thousand dollars per year. So I expect prices to come down each year. That fact alone is not a problem. Having said that, we know that Tesla's margins have consistently come down for the last 3 years, and we know that Chinese cars become more competitive each year. So things aren't looking great. But again, price declines are expected and not necessarily a problem. I would say market share is the most important metric to look at.

urthor 2y ago
The problem is R&D. Tesla absolutely is not and will not compromise on all that self driving car R&D and other engineering work. And that's expensive.
- jedrek 2y ago
  Except for not using LIDAR?
  - seba_dos1 2y ago
    ...or using consumer-grade parts.
alkonaut 2y ago
Yeah I’m aware the interest rebate is just a rebate like any other but the cost of such rebates is much higher if the baseline interest is 4% than if it’s 1%. The difference between 0% and 2% is as expensive as the subsidy between 7% and 5% but I don’t think it will sway as many customers

crimsoneer 2y ago

I honestly think a key ceo skill in this day and age is managing to side step every single culture war issue, and unhelpfully for Tesla, Elon seems to disagree with me (though clearly working out for him personally)

jimmydddd 2y ago
Well, I don't think most folks could name a CEO of another car company. So they seem to be doing fine in that category, but maybe not gaining any marketing advantage? I guess a great trick would be for a CEO to have a large social media presence but still side step culture war issues?
- talkin 2y ago
  > Well, I don't think most folks could name a CEO of another car company. Yup, and I don’t care. I liked the brand better without the drama queen.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  I mean, knowing the CEO of a car company only seems to be working against that car company. He's not exactly known as "The Tesla guy" anymore. > I guess a great trick would be for a CEO to have a large social media presence but still side step culture war issues? Most CEO's these days do, yes. Maybe not "large" but a noticeable precense.
EasyMark 2y ago
Yep look at Sundar Pachai or Tim Cook, they just always go with the flow, that's the way I prefer my CEOs when I invest in corps. It's up to a democracy to fix itself, not corporations. I don't need culture wars in corporations, those need to happen at the voting booths, Washington DC, and protests.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  >I don't need culture wars in corporations, those need to happen at the voting booths, Washington DC, and protests. given America these days: what's the difference? Elon bought the election for much cheaper than Twitter.

ttepasse 2y ago

According to the more detailed data for January 2025, published by the Kraftfahr-Bundesamt: Model 3 272 Model S 13 Model X 13 Model Y 979 ∑ 1277 For comparison the data for January 2024: Model 3 695 Model S 31 Model X 33 Model Y 2393 ∑ 3152 Model Y in both Januaries is still a multiple of ~ 3.5 of the Model 3. Your theory, that people were waiting for the MY refresh doesn’t seem likely. According to my experience most people aren’t as much informed of the inside baseball when a new model arrives. Nerd stuff. Edit, Sources, the F10 Excel spreadsheets here: 2025: https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/monatl_neuzulassungen_node.html?yearFilter=2025&monthFilter=01_januar https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Mon... 2024: https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/monatl_neuzulassungen_node.html?yearFilter=2024&monthFilter=01_januar https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Mon...