Benchmarks cannot tell you whether the tech will continue supernaturally, linearly, or plateau entirely. In the 90s, companies showed graphs of CPU frequency a

Benchmarks cannot tell you whether the tech will continue supernaturally, linearly, or plateau entirely. In the 90s, companies showed graphs of CPU frequency and projected we would be hitting 8ghz pretty soon. Futurists predicted we would get CPUs running at tens of ghz. We only just now have 5ghz CPUs despite running at 4ghz back in the mid 2000s. We fundamentally missed an important detail that wasn't consider at all in those projections. We know less about the theory of how LLMs and neural networks grow with effort than we did about how transistors operate over different speeds. You utterly cannot extrapolate from those kinds of graphs.