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Un-rounded, county-wide, it was a ~1.5% drop in votes for the Dem presidential candidate (from 2020 to 2024). Along with that, the voter turn-out dropped by ~2

Un-rounded, county-wide, it was a ~1.5% drop in votes for the Dem presidential candidate (from 2020 to 2024). Along with that, the voter turn-out dropped by ~2.2%, in a heavily Democratic County. Nationally, the Dem's went from Biden's 2020 51.3% of the popular vote, to Harris' 2024 48.3%. Darn close to what you'd get by extrapolating the county numbers. (I agree with your comments on A2's local issues - but from coverage of the RealPage scandal, NIMBY-ism elsewhere, etc., I suspect we're not too unusual that way. And rather large quantities of high-rise rental housing have been going up around campus and downtown A2 in the past decade.)

radlad 2y ago
I just want to point out that 51.3% - 48.3% = 3%, which is twice the difference that appeared in Washtenaw County (1.5%.) I wouldn't consider that to be equivalent myself, though I'm not sure what it tells us exactly.
- bell-cot 2y ago
  A 2.2% lower turnout, in a county where the Dem's get 71% of the votes, will disproportionately hurt them. Simplistic version - -2.2% * 71% = -1.6% (D), vs. -2.2% * 29% = -0.6% (R) - for a 1% "net gain" for the Republicans. Whether one says that 1.5% + 1% is 3%-ish, or assumes (plausibly) that turnout went up a bit in counties which lean heavily Republican, or something else - the extrapolation is fairly well in line with the delta in the national popular vote.
  - radlad 2y ago
    Well, I think we both agree that Democrats lost the most recent election because they got less votes than Republicans, and because some/many people who voted Democrat in 2020 voted Republican in 2024 (including in Washtenaw.) I think we might just disagree about how impactful, or out of the ordinary, the swing in Washtenaw Co specifically was (or maybe I've just done a poor job of expressing myself or understanding your original comment.) See 2016 for further comparison: https://electionresults.ewashtenaw.org/electionreporting/nov2016/index.jsp https://electionresults.ewashtenaw.org/electionreporting/nov...

radlad 2y ago

I just want to point out that 51.3% - 48.3% = 3%, which is twice the difference that appeared in Washtenaw County (1.5%.) I wouldn't consider that to be equivalent myself, though I'm not sure what it tells us exactly.

bell-cot 2y ago
A 2.2% lower turnout, in a county where the Dem's get 71% of the votes, will disproportionately hurt them. Simplistic version - -2.2% * 71% = -1.6% (D), vs. -2.2% * 29% = -0.6% (R) - for a 1% "net gain" for the Republicans. Whether one says that 1.5% + 1% is 3%-ish, or assumes (plausibly) that turnout went up a bit in counties which lean heavily Republican, or something else - the extrapolation is fairly well in line with the delta in the national popular vote.
- radlad 2y ago
  Well, I think we both agree that Democrats lost the most recent election because they got less votes than Republicans, and because some/many people who voted Democrat in 2020 voted Republican in 2024 (including in Washtenaw.) I think we might just disagree about how impactful, or out of the ordinary, the swing in Washtenaw Co specifically was (or maybe I've just done a poor job of expressing myself or understanding your original comment.) See 2016 for further comparison: https://electionresults.ewashtenaw.org/electionreporting/nov2016/index.jsp https://electionresults.ewashtenaw.org/electionreporting/nov...