4 ms·

A good analogy from not-so-distant past is the outsourcing wave that swept the tech industry. Shareholders everywhere were salivating at the money they would ma

by groos 2y ago

A good analogy from not-so-distant past is the outsourcing wave that swept the tech industry. Shareholders everywhere were salivating at the money they would make by hiring programmers in India at 1/10 the cost while keeping their profits. Those of us who have been in the industry a while all saw how that went. I think this new wave wave will go roughly similarly. Eventually, companies will realize that to keep their edge, they need humans with creativity while "AI" will be one more tool in the bag. In the meantime, a lot of hurt will happen due to greed.

dyauspitr 2y ago
What do you mean by see how that went? The corps are at the point now where they stopped using consultancies and instead have their own company divisions in India where they still pay them 1/10th. If anything it’s a more dire situation.
- dimmuborgir 2y ago
  Yup, they are called GCCs (Global Capability Centers).
- jajko 2y ago
  In those few (some of them global big players) companies I've been in past 20 years, it was mostly onshore -> max offshore -> near shore -> mix of it all since business kept growing so people ended up everywhere. Focus purely on 100% outsourcing always failed, this is true across all industries. Ignoring it completely was a luxury few companies could keep, ie some small private banks or generally luxury products and services. Conservative optimism was the way to go for long term success without big swings. Even though when offshoring came it was felt as end of days, most of the threat didn't materialize long term. Without time machine we of course don't know real effects. I think it will be similar, not same here. I expect companies will get more work done (backlogs for software changes are often huge in non-tech companies), maybe trim fat a bit but nothing shocking. Lets be a bit smart and not succumb to emotional swings just because others are doing it.
smeeger 2y ago
what if india had programmers that were just as good? that would be a more apt comparison to what we will be facing in the near future. an alien country where the supply of programmers is infinite and they are better than any human. i bet five years ago you would say chatGTP, this very conversation, would be impossible or 1000 years off. you dont know anything

by groos 2y ago

dyauspitr 2y ago

What do you mean by see how that went? The corps are at the point now where they stopped using consultancies and instead have their own company divisions in India where they still pay them 1/10th. If anything it’s a more dire situation.

dimmuborgir 2y ago
Yup, they are called GCCs (Global Capability Centers).
jajko 2y ago
In those few (some of them global big players) companies I've been in past 20 years, it was mostly onshore -> max offshore -> near shore -> mix of it all since business kept growing so people ended up everywhere. Focus purely on 100% outsourcing always failed, this is true across all industries. Ignoring it completely was a luxury few companies could keep, ie some small private banks or generally luxury products and services. Conservative optimism was the way to go for long term success without big swings. Even though when offshoring came it was felt as end of days, most of the threat didn't materialize long term. Without time machine we of course don't know real effects. I think it will be similar, not same here. I expect companies will get more work done (backlogs for software changes are often huge in non-tech companies), maybe trim fat a bit but nothing shocking. Lets be a bit smart and not succumb to emotional swings just because others are doing it.

smeeger 2y ago

what if india had programmers that were just as good? that would be a more apt comparison to what we will be facing in the near future. an alien country where the supply of programmers is infinite and they are better than any human. i bet five years ago you would say chatGTP, this very conversation, would be impossible or 1000 years off. you dont know anything