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The title is misleading, and the implication is directly contradicted: "Contrary to claims, mostly on financial social media, the US stock market is not a Ponz
by jfengel 2y ago
The title is misleading, and the implication is directly contradicted:
"Contrary to claims, mostly on financial social media, the US stock market is not a Ponzi scheme, as the majority of large-cap companies are highly profitable."
The term "quasi-Ponzi scheme" is invented for the article:
"Next, we define a quasi-Ponzi scheme as an investment where participants are willing to pay for high multiples of earnings in anticipation of future returns."
Except that's not even slightly what a Ponzi scheme is. It's not "quasi". It doesn't depend on future investors. There is an underlying value.
All he's doing is giving a name to the existing idea of Net Present Value. You pay a higher price than the data justifies because you expect it to be worth more in the future.
He accurately identifies that that comes at a cost: it materializes now some of the value that would otherwise wait until later. That puts more money in the system and causes inflation. You can't just sit on your money; you have to invest just to remain in the same place.
Economists know that. That's why they seek to maintain a low but positive level of inflation. That encourages money to go to work, rather than sit there. The Net Present Value of cash is the same as its future value, which sounds great, but it means that nothing is getting created.
There are a lot of problems with the notion that this kind of innovation goes on indefinitely. People are seriously starting to worry that we're coming up against the limits. But that has nothing to do with fraud, or a quasi-fraud.