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My opinion: tech isn't firing programmers for AI. If is firing peogrammers because of the financial environment, and waving around AI as a fig leaf to pretend t

My opinion: tech isn't firing programmers for AI. If is firing peogrammers because of the financial environment, and waving around AI as a fig leaf to pretend that it is not really cutting back in output. When the financial environment loosens again, there’ll be a new wave of tech hiring (which is about equally likely to publicly be portrayed as either reversing the AI firing or exploiting new opportunities due to AI, neither of which will be the real fundamental driving force.)

smitelli 2y ago
I've come to believe it really is this. Everybody got used to the way things worked when interest rates were near zero. Money was basically free, hiring was on a rampage, and everybody was willing to try reckless moonshots with slim chances for success. This went on for like fifteen years -- a good chunk of the workforce has only ever known that environment.
coolKid721 2y ago
most narratives for everything are just an excuse for macro stuff. we had zirp for basically the entire period of 2008 - 2022 and when that stopped there was huge lay offs and less hiring. I see lots of newer/younger devs being really pessimistic about the future of the industry, being mindful of the macro factors is important so people don't buy into the AI narratives (which is just to bump up their stocks). If people can get a safer return buying bonds they aren't going to invest in expansion and hiring. If there is basically no risk free rate of return you throw your money at hiring/new projects because you need to make a return. Lots of that goes into tech jobs.
johnnyanmac 2y ago
No one 0ast sole very small businesses (aka a single person with contractors) is seriously trying to replace programmers with AI right now. I do feel we will hit that phase sometimes down the line (probably in the 30's).so I at least think this is a tale to keep in the back of our minds long term.
cootsnuck 2y ago
It's this. Companies love a smokescreen to tighten their belts without spooking markets and tanking their stock. And workers are the collateral damage.

smitelli 2y ago

I've come to believe it really is this. Everybody got used to the way things worked when interest rates were near zero. Money was basically free, hiring was on a rampage, and everybody was willing to try reckless moonshots with slim chances for success. This went on for like fifteen years -- a good chunk of the workforce has only ever known that environment.

coolKid721 2y ago

most narratives for everything are just an excuse for macro stuff. we had zirp for basically the entire period of 2008 - 2022 and when that stopped there was huge lay offs and less hiring. I see lots of newer/younger devs being really pessimistic about the future of the industry, being mindful of the macro factors is important so people don't buy into the AI narratives (which is just to bump up their stocks). If people can get a safer return buying bonds they aren't going to invest in expansion and hiring. If there is basically no risk free rate of return you throw your money at hiring/new projects because you need to make a return. Lots of that goes into tech jobs.

johnnyanmac 2y ago

No one 0ast sole very small businesses (aka a single person with contractors) is seriously trying to replace programmers with AI right now. I do feel we will hit that phase sometimes down the line (probably in the 30's).so I at least think this is a tale to keep in the back of our minds long term.

cootsnuck 2y ago

It's this. Companies love a smokescreen to tighten their belts without spooking markets and tanking their stock. And workers are the collateral damage.