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There is little evidence that AI is replacing engineers, but there is a whole lot of evidence that shareholders and execs really love the idea and are trying ev

There is little evidence that AI is replacing engineers, but there is a whole lot of evidence that shareholders and execs really love the idea and are trying every angle to achieve it.

only-one1701 2y ago
If the latter is the case, then it's only a matter of time. Enshitification, etc.
chubot 2y ago
The funny thing is that "replacing engineers" is framed as cutting costs But that doesn't really lead to any market advantage, at least for tech companies. AI will also enable your competitors to cut costs. Who thinks they are going to have a monopoly on AI, which would be required for a durable advantage? --- What you want to do is get more of the rare, best programmers -- that's what shareholders and execs should be wondering about Instead, those programmers will be starting their own companies and competing with you
- TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
  If this works at all, they'll be telling AIs to start multiple companies and keeping the ones that work best. But if that works, it won't take long for "starting companies" and "being a CEO" to look like comically dated anachronisms. Instead of visual and content slop we'll have a corporate stonk slop. If ASI becomes a thing, it will be able to understand and manipulate the entirety of human culture - including economics and business - to create ends we can't imagine.
  - chubot 2y ago
    I would bet money this doesn't work The future of programming will be increasingly small numbers of highly skilled humans, augmented by AI (exactly how today we are literally augmented by Google and Stack Overflow -- who can claim they are not?) The idea of autonomous AIs creating and executing a complete money-making business is a marketing idea for AI companies --- Because if "you" can do it, why can't everyone else do it? I don't see a competitive advantage there Humans and AI are good at different things. The human+AI is going to outcompete AI only FOR A LONG time I will bet that will be past our lifetimes, for sure
  - daveguy 2y ago
    Fortunately we are nowhere near ASI. I don't think we are even close to AGI. That does bring up a fascinating "benchmark" potential -- start a company on AI advice, with sustained profit as the score. I would love to see a bunch of people trying to start AI generated company ideas. At this point, the resulting companies would be so sloppy they will all score negative. And it would still completely depend on the person interpreting the AI.
- insane_dreamer 2y ago
  > AI will also enable your competitors to cut costs. which is why it puts pressure on your own company to cut costs it's the same reason why nearly all US companies moved their manufacturing offshore; once some companies did it, everyone had to follow suit or be left behind due to higher costs than their competitors
- t-writescode 2y ago
  > Instead, those programmers will be starting their own companies and competing with you If so, then why am I not seeing a lot of new companies starting while we're in this huge down-turn in the development world? Or, is everyone like me and trying to start a business with only their savings, so not enough to hire people?
ryandrake 2y ago
What's the far future end-state that these shareholders and execs envision? Companies with no staff? Just self-maintaining robots in the factory and AI doing the office jobs and paperwork? And a single CEO sitting in a chair prompting them all? Is that what shareholders see as the future of business? Who has money to buy the company's products? Other CEOs?
- reverius42 2y ago
  Just a paperclip maximizer, with all humans reduced to shareholders in the paperclip maximizer, and also possibly future paperclips.
  - ryandrake 2y ago
    > all humans reduced to shareholders That seems pretty optimistic. The shareholder / capital ownership class isn't exactly known for their desire to spread that ownership across the public broadly. Quite the opposite: Fewer and fewer are owning more and more. The more likely case is we end up like Elysium, with a tiny <0.1% ownership class who own everything and participate in normal life/commerce, selling to each other, walled off from the remaining 99.9xxx% barely subsisting on nothing.
    - prewett 2y ago
      > The shareholder / capital ownership class isn't exactly known for their desire to spread that ownership across the public broadly. This seems like a cynical take, given that there are two stock markets (just in the US), it's easy to set up a brokerage account, and you don't even need to pay trading fees any more. It's never been easier to become a shareholder. Not to mention that anyone with a 401(k) almost surely owns stocks. In fact, this is a demonstrably false claim. Over half of Americans have owned stock in every year since 1998, frequently close to 60%. [1] [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-own...
chasd00 2y ago
> execs really love the idea and are trying every angle to achieve it. reminds me of the offshoring hype in the early 2000's. Where it worked, it worked well but it wasn't the final solution for all of software development that many CEOs wanted it to be.
- Nasrudith 2y ago
  Yep. It has the same rhyme of the worst case being 'wishes made by fools' too where they don't realize that they themselves don't truly know what to ask for, so getting exactly what they asked for ruins them.

There is little evidence that AI is replacing engineers, but there is a whole lot of evidence that shareholders and execs really love the idea and are trying every angle to achieve it.

only-one1701 2y ago

If the latter is the case, then it's only a matter of time. Enshitification, etc.

chubot 2y ago

The funny thing is that "replacing engineers" is framed as cutting costs But that doesn't really lead to any market advantage, at least for tech companies. AI will also enable your competitors to cut costs. Who thinks they are going to have a monopoly on AI, which would be required for a durable advantage? --- What you want to do is get more of the rare, best programmers -- that's what shareholders and execs should be wondering about Instead, those programmers will be starting their own companies and competing with you

TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
If this works at all, they'll be telling AIs to start multiple companies and keeping the ones that work best. But if that works, it won't take long for "starting companies" and "being a CEO" to look like comically dated anachronisms. Instead of visual and content slop we'll have a corporate stonk slop. If ASI becomes a thing, it will be able to understand and manipulate the entirety of human culture - including economics and business - to create ends we can't imagine.
- chubot 2y ago
  I would bet money this doesn't work The future of programming will be increasingly small numbers of highly skilled humans, augmented by AI (exactly how today we are literally augmented by Google and Stack Overflow -- who can claim they are not?) The idea of autonomous AIs creating and executing a complete money-making business is a marketing idea for AI companies --- Because if "you" can do it, why can't everyone else do it? I don't see a competitive advantage there Humans and AI are good at different things. The human+AI is going to outcompete AI only FOR A LONG time I will bet that will be past our lifetimes, for sure
- daveguy 2y ago
  Fortunately we are nowhere near ASI. I don't think we are even close to AGI. That does bring up a fascinating "benchmark" potential -- start a company on AI advice, with sustained profit as the score. I would love to see a bunch of people trying to start AI generated company ideas. At this point, the resulting companies would be so sloppy they will all score negative. And it would still completely depend on the person interpreting the AI.
insane_dreamer 2y ago
> AI will also enable your competitors to cut costs. which is why it puts pressure on your own company to cut costs it's the same reason why nearly all US companies moved their manufacturing offshore; once some companies did it, everyone had to follow suit or be left behind due to higher costs than their competitors
t-writescode 2y ago
> Instead, those programmers will be starting their own companies and competing with you If so, then why am I not seeing a lot of new companies starting while we're in this huge down-turn in the development world? Or, is everyone like me and trying to start a business with only their savings, so not enough to hire people?

ryandrake 2y ago

What's the far future end-state that these shareholders and execs envision? Companies with no staff? Just self-maintaining robots in the factory and AI doing the office jobs and paperwork? And a single CEO sitting in a chair prompting them all? Is that what shareholders see as the future of business? Who has money to buy the company's products? Other CEOs?

reverius42 2y ago
Just a paperclip maximizer, with all humans reduced to shareholders in the paperclip maximizer, and also possibly future paperclips.
- ryandrake 2y ago
  > all humans reduced to shareholders That seems pretty optimistic. The shareholder / capital ownership class isn't exactly known for their desire to spread that ownership across the public broadly. Quite the opposite: Fewer and fewer are owning more and more. The more likely case is we end up like Elysium, with a tiny <0.1% ownership class who own everything and participate in normal life/commerce, selling to each other, walled off from the remaining 99.9xxx% barely subsisting on nothing.
  - prewett 2y ago
    > The shareholder / capital ownership class isn't exactly known for their desire to spread that ownership across the public broadly. This seems like a cynical take, given that there are two stock markets (just in the US), it's easy to set up a brokerage account, and you don't even need to pay trading fees any more. It's never been easier to become a shareholder. Not to mention that anyone with a 401(k) almost surely owns stocks. In fact, this is a demonstrably false claim. Over half of Americans have owned stock in every year since 1998, frequently close to 60%. [1] [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-own...

chasd00 2y ago

> execs really love the idea and are trying every angle to achieve it. reminds me of the offshoring hype in the early 2000's. Where it worked, it worked well but it wasn't the final solution for all of software development that many CEOs wanted it to be.

Nasrudith 2y ago
Yep. It has the same rhyme of the worst case being 'wishes made by fools' too where they don't realize that they themselves don't truly know what to ask for, so getting exactly what they asked for ruins them.