3 ms·
Nope. The probability theory doesn't work like that. When you argue that 2+2=4 you assume 2 and 2 are known and they are not. A=you picked the car at first B=
by alexey-salmin 2y ago
Nope. The probability theory doesn't work like that. When you argue that 2+2=4 you assume 2 and 2 are known and they are not.
A=you picked the car at first
B=the host opened the door
P(A|B) can be anywhere between 0 and 1.
In your calculations you assume that P(A|B)=P(A) which is correct ONLY if A and B are independent. Independence of A and B is not in the problem statement, you invented this clause yourself.
- ryao 2y agoThis is an excellent example of what I am saying. 2 + 2 = 4 was already written and you are insisting that it was not. That said, the source material is this: https://web.archive.org/web/20130121183432/http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/ https://web.archive.org/web/20130121183432/http://marilynvos... The problem is well defined in the source material and what others are interjecting here is another problem.
- alexey-salmin 2y agoWhere exactly does it state the independence of these two variables in the problem definition in the source material?