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I agree, but I believe the reason for the errors is because people intuitively have a pretty good grasp of the game theory for the situation where someone is tr

I agree, but I believe the reason for the errors is because people intuitively have a pretty good grasp of the game theory for the situation where someone is trying not to give you something they promised (and it's the sort of thing where IRL you shouldn't believe somebody trying to convince you to change your mind, so it's a useful bias to ignore parts of the problem even when it is fully specified). I believe that the statisticians then try to justify that, and end up making incorrect arguments.

shkkmo 2y ago
> I agree, but I believe the reason for the errors is because people intuitively have a pretty good grasp of the game theory for the situation where someone is trying not to give you something they promised Unfortunately this doesn't match reality. The vast majority of people who got the problem wrong when it was first published are not confused about the rules and insist that the chances are even (same chance to get a car switching as not switching). This doesn't match a theory that these people think the host is trying to trick the player in some way. Additionally, You can reframe the problem and will still see significant error rates.