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Yes, I am discussing a different problem, and I don't think the original problem formulation gives enough information to distinguish between the 2 problems. Th
by penteract 2y ago
Yes, I am discussing a different problem, and I don't think the original problem formulation gives enough information to distinguish between the 2 problems.
The answer can add assumptions, which is fine. I'm not passing judgement on Marilyn vos Savant. I do object to claims that the problem statement is sufficient to have a single answer, and based on that, I'd object to claims that somebody in that situation would be wrong not to switch doors. I would object on exactly the same grounds to anyone who tells you "you're wrong, there's a 50% chance of getting a car" (I might object further, on the grounds that the most obvious interpretation which gives that answer is inconsistent with this form of the problem statement).
- the_af 2y agoIf you're discussing a different problem, then it's not the Monty Hall Problem, which we're discussing here. It's a probabilities logic puzzle, it's not about psychological tricks. Anything of that sort is an extraneous ad hoc hypothesis that you're introducing. The point is whether, upon the reveal of a goat, you should switch or stick to your original choice. Nothing else matters. What Monty had for breakfast doesn't matter. Whether he likes you or not doesn't matter.