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You can choose as an investor between: a) Coca-Cola (~$300B, profitable, stable, stock-listed, well-known addictive brand, accepted business model with steady
by rvnx 2y ago
You can choose as an investor between:
a) Coca-Cola (~$300B, profitable, stable, stock-listed, well-known addictive brand, accepted business model with steady growth)
b) OpenAI (bleeding cash: $5B lost last year, tech that is not really novel anymore, weird corporate setup, competition that offers similar products).
It's not that easy to support the idea that OpenAI will be the winner.
- FactolSarin 2y agoI've been saying the same thing about Tesla for years, but here we are. The market can stay irrational blah blah blah
- throwawayffffas 2y agoWell now that the Donald is running the US and is about to cut subsidies for electric vehicles, add tariffs to aluminum and steel, now maybe the markets may see the light, I am not holding my breath though.
- SergeAx 2y agoSteel and aluminum tariffs will hit all car manufacturers simultaneously.
- throwawayffffas 2y agoIf all cars are more expensive, and all manufacturers have lower margins Tesla will have lower margins too. For the stock price the competition won't be other car manufacturers but other industries. It would be a "subsiding tide lowers all boats" kind of thing.
- ben_w 2y agoI've been thinking, when I younger and living in the UK, all sorts of things (including some with the word "tax" in them) were denounced by the local right wing as "stealth taxes". Trump is talking about tariffs as if they're a tax on non-Americans, but they're paid for by Americans who import stuff, which is basically all Americans given where your oil, aluminium, and steel come from. Those tariffs are a stealth tax.
- pillefitz 2y agoCutting subsidies would weaken Tesla's competitors (according to Musk)
- wnc3141 2y agoTesla- being more vertically integrated- stands to benefit from disproportionately increased costs for its competitors
- fakedang 2y agoJust because costs are higher for its competition doesn't mean that people are going to be buying more Teslas. Last I checked, Tesla was already down 40-60% in sales at its major European markets. They're getting absolutely slaughtered by BYD in China.
- wnc3141 2y agoI mean as long as people are still buying cars, Tesla becomes more cost competitive. But in the short run it's not for consumers as much as it is for investors. You may be right that Tesla will struggle internationally and the car market as a whole will struggle in USA
- HotHotLava 2y agoThat comparison also shows that a recognizable brand alone can easily be worth more than 100 billion; Coca-Cola also has competition that offers similar products and zero tech advantage, but they still managed to keep their number one spot for decades.
- mullingitover 2y agoOpenAI is pre-revenue, they're a pure play. It's not about how much you earn, it's about how much you're worth.
- chefandy 2y agoMarking “new tech paradigm isn’t about turning a profit/ the rules have changed” on my tech bubble bingo card.
- OccamsMirror 2y agoFor those not in the know: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo
- wnc3141 2y agothe 'tres commas' era feels so quaint these days.
- caspper69 2y agoIs it already 1997 again?
- theptip 2y agoTwo bets with the same expected value can have wildly different variance. The OpenAI bet is clearly that they build AGI and become the worlds first $10T company. At this valuation you only need to think it’s P > 0.1 for it to be a reasonable bet. Coke is not a “swing for the fences” investment.
- Timber-6539 2y agoThe choice is not between that. It's between which of the two businesses can deliver outsized growth & returns back to the investor in their time horizon.
- tim333 2y agoWell, on the whole you can't because OpenAI isn't listed. If it was, retail investors would be piling in.
- zild3d 2y agoHuh? These are very different investment goals, you're not choosing between a or b
- jappgar 2y agoSo invest all your money in Coca-Cola and maybe beat inflation by one or two percent. Or you can gamble it all on a meme stock and maybe 100x your wealth. Institutional investors are doing both.