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> Replace Japan with China and he's spot on. Is he? I don't know of many Chinese companies that own stakes in American or European industry - maybe Lenovo cou

by Gormo 14y ago

> Replace Japan with China and he's spot on. Is he? I don't know of many Chinese companies that own stakes in American or European industry - maybe Lenovo counts to some extent, but what others? It seems that the sources of China's capital and the markets for the resulting industry are almost entirely Western, and primarily American. China's fate is far more determined by American investors and consumers than the reverse. China's government scrambles to buy dollars to keep the RMB artificially weak against the dollar so this pattern can be sustained for a while longer. But how long can that last?

damian2000 14y ago
I'm not sure to the overall level, but it is increasing - looking to top $8bn of direct investment in the US this year... http://money.cnn.com/2012/07/25/investing/china-investing-us/index.htm http://money.cnn.com/2012/07/25/investing/china-investing-us... Speaking from Australia, China made $9.9bn investment last year, also growing... http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2011/12/30/chinese-ma-into-australia-reaches-record/ http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2011/12/30/chinese... - here they are generally looking to up their stake in mining/energy companies. I think its much the same in Canada as well.
- bzbarsky 14y ago
  The investment share of GDP for the US was 12% in 2010 according to https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2185.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/... and I would expect it hasn't moved much since. US GDP is about $15 trillion/yr right now. So the $8bn of direct investment you mention is about 0.4% of the investment that happened in the US last year. A far cry from "owning or controlling a significant part of European and American industries". ;) Oh, and the $10bn investment into Australia, which has "only" 27% * $1.5e12 = $405bn of investment yearly, is about 2.5% of yearly Australian investment. At that rate you _could_ get to "significant" in several years, if the economy doesn't also grow at several % a year.... (For further comparison, the EU gdp is about 17tn/year and investment is almost 19% of that, so figure about 2.9tn/year.)
  - damian2000 14y ago
    Thanks for the info - interesting stuff. The overall investment is a lot lower overall than I thought it would be. On the topic of Australia, the effect of China's demand for resources can't be understated - they are the main reason there's currently a mining boom here; without them we would probably be stuck in 0-1% growth. As it is we are at 3% GDP growth per annum.
    - bzbarsky 14y ago
      Right. Australia's fundamental "problem" vis-a-vis China is that China has about 70x the population. Which means that even at much lower per-capita income China has a lot of money to throw around compared to the size of the Australian economy...

by Gormo 14y ago

damian2000 14y ago

I'm not sure to the overall level, but it is increasing - looking to top $8bn of direct investment in the US this year... http://money.cnn.com/2012/07/25/investing/china-investing-us/index.htm http://money.cnn.com/2012/07/25/investing/china-investing-us... Speaking from Australia, China made $9.9bn investment last year, also growing... http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2011/12/30/chinese-ma-into-australia-reaches-record/ http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2011/12/30/chinese... - here they are generally looking to up their stake in mining/energy companies. I think its much the same in Canada as well.

bzbarsky 14y ago
The investment share of GDP for the US was 12% in 2010 according to https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2185.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/... and I would expect it hasn't moved much since. US GDP is about $15 trillion/yr right now. So the $8bn of direct investment you mention is about 0.4% of the investment that happened in the US last year. A far cry from "owning or controlling a significant part of European and American industries". ;) Oh, and the $10bn investment into Australia, which has "only" 27% * $1.5e12 = $405bn of investment yearly, is about 2.5% of yearly Australian investment. At that rate you _could_ get to "significant" in several years, if the economy doesn't also grow at several % a year.... (For further comparison, the EU gdp is about 17tn/year and investment is almost 19% of that, so figure about 2.9tn/year.)
- damian2000 14y ago
  Thanks for the info - interesting stuff. The overall investment is a lot lower overall than I thought it would be. On the topic of Australia, the effect of China's demand for resources can't be understated - they are the main reason there's currently a mining boom here; without them we would probably be stuck in 0-1% growth. As it is we are at 3% GDP growth per annum.
  - bzbarsky 14y ago
    Right. Australia's fundamental "problem" vis-a-vis China is that China has about 70x the population. Which means that even at much lower per-capita income China has a lot of money to throw around compared to the size of the Australian economy...