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2037 Some promising technologies will still be struggling along in 2037. Others have disappeared or been replaced completely. No matter how miraculous and marv
by jwecker 14y ago
2037
Some promising technologies will still be struggling along in 2037. Others have
disappeared or been replaced completely. No matter how miraculous and marvelous
the advances that have happened though, society will have managed to consider
them mundane and probably inevitable. I don't know what quantum computers and
machine learning will have allowed by 2037- (better weather prediction? deep
mathematical truths?), but I suspect that the things people think about the
most, like how to have meaningful relationships and fulfilling work, will have
only been minimally affected. On the other hand, I predict that some people
thinking about those things now will have found, individually, exactly what
they were looking for.
Each generation will be less mature (at least until it reaches the same age as
the last). Each new generation (there will have been a couple by 2037) will,
despite its immaturity, regressiveness, and destructiveness, manage to yield
forth individuals who inspire and transform, who rise above petty concerns and
a world brimming with distraction and reveal something new about the capacity
of mankind.
In short, the fundamental struggle will continue between technology that exalts
our knowledge and capacity, and human nature that debases and waste them.
Existential threats to mankind will still occasionally surface. The threat of
genocide, tyrants who oppress and reign in terror, the Earth groaning under its
abuse as we attempt to listen better, to act better. But, as always there will be
pockets of peace and prosperity where others can sit and take a moment to write
an entry for 2062.
- purplelobster 14y agoBravo! I believe that's as accurate a prediction you could make. As soon as you dive into specific issues, such predicting what will happen with China, virtual reality, space exploration etc, you'll have a much better chance of success if you predict status quo, or nothing at all. You hit on something though. We won't have "real" AI in 2037, but believe we're in the midst of a machine learning and computer vision revolution. Self driving cars should be possible in 25 years, technically. Whether there will be legal issues or not I can't guess.
- dennisgorelik 14y agoEach generation will be more mature by the time they reach the same age. It's been so for ages and that trend would continue. AI would advance a lot. Virtual reality would be a commonplace. Population would keep slowly rising (due to natural selection). World would be even more peaceful than it is today. No existential threats to mankind in the next 25 years.
- tripzilch 14y ago> AI would advance a lot. But we'll still be adamant that it's not "real" AI.
- shabble 14y agoFor those taking this seriously: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forer_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forer_effect
- jwecker 14y agokind of. They are obviously vague predictions, which is kind of a cop-out / cheating. But after reading how silly all the specific predictions seemed, even when correct, I got to thinking about things with a strong historical precedence- things that would likely remain true. The language used makes it sound kind of like the platitudes you would see in Barnum statements, but those lead to the Forer effect because some number of them _do_ apply to lots of people (leading people to confirmation bias and to assigning some weight to a non-existent authority). I hope that the imprecision in my predictions make them boring and obvious because they're true for the majority of 25-year spans in recorded history, not because they pretend to be tailored specifically toward individuals reading or toward this coming 25 years.
- tripzilch 14y agoBe sure to print it out and put it in some sort of capsule though. It'll get lost in this HN thread and it's always fun to read back such things 25y later :)
- Paul_S 14y agoBy 2037 WW III will have happened. My guess is that it won't be an all out single epic battle but a dissolved multitude of tiny conflicts dragging out for years and sapping the economy and living standards all over world (including the developed countries).
- dugmartin 14y ago2037 - A large number of twenty something 2012 era Hacker News readers who thought they would have had their FU money years ago will find themselves working on fixing "Year 2038" time bugs in 25 year old PHP projects to pay their mortgages.
- mweibel 14y ago2037: Brain will have conquered the world.