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TLDR: 1. The intelligence of an AI model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it. 2. The cost to use a given level of AI falls about
by talles 2y ago
TLDR:
1. The intelligence of an AI model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it.
2. The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use.
3. The socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super-exponential in nature.
- DiscourseFan 2y ago[flagged]
- dang 2y ago"Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- DiscourseFan 2y agoWith all due respect, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sam Altman uses his own software to help him write his blog.
- bambax 2y agoThe only true part is 2. 1 is plainly false. Enormous ressources have been poured into models since the end 2023 and the "intelligence" (for lack of a better term) has stayed roughly the same, around the level of GPT-4. Nothing has happened since then. 3 is a philosophical opinion, not based on any falsifiable evidence. All in all: mostly FUD, as per the usual MO.
- uluyol 2y agoHow is 1 false? Log improvement means for 10x the cost the model is 2x as good. For 100x the cost, the model is 3x as good. Not a curve to be happy about TBH. You need to simultaneously find big efficiency wins and drive up costs substantially to get 4-5x improvements, and it is probably impossible to maintain good year on year improvements after the first 2-3 years when you get all the low hanging fruit.
- CamperBob2 2y ago1 is plainly false. Enormous ressources have been poured into models since the end 2023 and the "intelligence" (for lack of a better term) has stayed roughly the same, around the level of GPT-4. Nothing has happened since then. You need to spend some quality time with o1-pro and/or Gemini Pro 2.0 Experimental. It is not the case that there has been no progress since GPT4. CoT reasoning is a BFD.
- bdangubic 2y ago1 is plainly false. Enormous ressources have been poured into models since the end 2023 and the "intelligence" (for lack of a better term) has stayed roughly the same, around the level of GPT-4. Nothing has happened since then. this would be true only for people who have used the same model since 2023 :) Jesus!