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Big disclaimer - I work for a heat pump company (Quatt.io). I suspect that in Europe, there could be a real opening for heat pumps when people want to install

Big disclaimer - I work for a heat pump company (Quatt.io). I suspect that in Europe, there could be a real opening for heat pumps when people want to install aircon - which more and more people do. Many air conditioners (mini and multi-split air to air units) are also heaters, and when I lived in Ireland in a well-insulated new build house we simply used the aircon as our only heater, and it worked well. Unfortunately, much of Europe uses radiators, and you can't really pump cold water around the house to cool it due to condensation, but even here I think there could be an opportunity with add-on aircons that use the exterior heat pump to vent heat - https://www.quatt.io/quatt-chill https://www.quatt.io/quatt-chill for instance. Anyway, I know the article is about the US, but I thought some perspective might be interesting.

ssuds 2y ago
Yes, it’s a similar situation in the US! Many folks (especially on the west coast, where summers have historically been mild) don’t have an AC, so big motivation to install a heat pump is to add AC! Unfortunately, plenty of one-way ACs are still being installed; each of those is a missed opportunity where a heat pump could have been put in and decarbonized heating at the same time
- CalRobert 2y ago
  A shame, really, because they're so nice. And in the US you can even DIY the install! (It cost twice as much to get one in Ireland because I needed an F Gas certified tech). Is aircon rare on the west coast? I recall basically everywhere having it when I grew up in Sacramento. But I do remember it being less common in San Diego...
  - vladgur 2y ago
    Sacramento is not “on the coast”, more of Central Valley, so it does get hot. Where I live in the “Peninsula” part of Bay Area, we may “want” rather than need A/C maybe 1 week a year. My heating is provided by a 15 year old forced air gas furnace, but I’m in no hurry to install a heatpump because of our ridiculous electrical costs - thanks PG&E. Our current rates seem to already average at $.5/kwh, probably 5 times more than the rest of the country. I would wager that adoption of heatpumps is related to cost of electricity vs gas
    - CalRobert 2y ago
      Nomenclature but I generally think of the west coast on the national scale, but you're correct. I mean, downtown LA is definitely the west coast but it can be much much hotter than Santa Monica, 15 miles away. But you're right that expensive electricity kills the value proposition.
- alistairSH 2y ago
  Is the problem up-front cost on the heat pump (vs pure AC)? I have a friend remodeling a home in Seattle right now and they’re installing a heat pump in the extension/basement. Seems like a no-brainer given the relatively mild highs and lows. The original house had no AC and radiators of some sort (1920s build, maybe).
  - toast0 2y ago
    Seattle is a great place for a heat pump. Depending on where you are, and your tree cover, most summer days are fine with windows open, but heat waves are icky. Otoh, below freezing is pretty rare, so most of the time, you'll be in the efficiency zone; on the big snow days, it's useful to move snow away from your outside unit to keep it working as well as it can in those conditions. Wall mounted units, common with mini-splits, probably don't have to worry about that. Utility natural gas is available in some places in the region, but not everywhere... Heating with propane would be pretty expensive, IMHO.
    - alistairSH 2y ago
      Yeah, they were fine without AC for years. But, with a kid on the way, they wanted more space, and liked their neighborhood enough to remodel vs move. Outside of the remodel, probably wouldn’t make sene to install AC/heat-pump, but once you’re spending hundreds of thousands, it’s a drop in the bucket and making a heatpump made sense.
  - asielen 2y ago
    I'd love AC, but I'd only need it for a couple weeks a year in the bay area. And I have PG&E so the economics of a heat pump don't pencil out. Gas heating is still cheaper than a heat pump because electricity rates are out of control. (Gas isn't cheap either but still cheaper) California is doing everything it can to eliminate natural gas heating except for make the alternatives more affordable. PG&E and Socal Edison are basically given a bank check to keep raising rates by the oversight board. (Doesn't help that they are also burning down cities)
- thechao 2y ago
  I'm in Texas, and my HVAC guys all switched to heat pumps on their own houses a few years ago. The main problem is that most of are on electric AC and gas/propane heat; so, the switch to heat pump usually means throwing out either a perfectly good AC or a perfectly good heater, and installing a heat pump which is, generally about 50% more expensive than either: it's just a lot for a homeowner to swallow. For new builds, the entrenched builders have backlogs of old equipment that they don't want to lose capital on. It's a tough cycle to break.
christkv 2y ago
You can if it’s a new construction because mechanical ventilation and heat recuperation keeps humidity low enough to avoid condensation. We do it in our house but the panels are actually huge radiation surfaces installed in the ceiling with a low temperature differential to the temperature in the air. In winter we run the loop at around 25C and in summer at about 17-19C. We do need awnings to control direct sunlight into the house but it works pretty well. With the solar panels and batteries we have we generate about 50% of what we need.
- CalRobert 2y ago
  That's really cool! Can I ask roughly where this is? I wonder if it's an area with generally low humidity.
  - christkv 2y ago
    Northern Spain, horrible humidity usually 80-100% max and low of 40-50% max. Company that’s did the installation is a startup https://sunthalpy.com/en/ https://sunthalpy.com/en/. I was worried humidity would be too high but after the building mass dried out it’s stable around 42-48% humidity no matter what the external humidity is.
ojhughes 2y ago
Most of the heat pump units in the UK market don’t operate as an AC unit. It’s a hard sell to rip out a working gas central heating system
- CalRobert 2y ago
  Yeah, ours don't either (yet) in large part since radiators are more common. Though at least in NL there's a lot of hybrid systems. You keep your gas boiler and attach a heat pump as well. The heat pump handles house heating and the gas boiler still heats domestic hot water.

ssuds 2y ago

Yes, it’s a similar situation in the US! Many folks (especially on the west coast, where summers have historically been mild) don’t have an AC, so big motivation to install a heat pump is to add AC! Unfortunately, plenty of one-way ACs are still being installed; each of those is a missed opportunity where a heat pump could have been put in and decarbonized heating at the same time

CalRobert 2y ago
A shame, really, because they're so nice. And in the US you can even DIY the install! (It cost twice as much to get one in Ireland because I needed an F Gas certified tech). Is aircon rare on the west coast? I recall basically everywhere having it when I grew up in Sacramento. But I do remember it being less common in San Diego...
- vladgur 2y ago
  Sacramento is not “on the coast”, more of Central Valley, so it does get hot. Where I live in the “Peninsula” part of Bay Area, we may “want” rather than need A/C maybe 1 week a year. My heating is provided by a 15 year old forced air gas furnace, but I’m in no hurry to install a heatpump because of our ridiculous electrical costs - thanks PG&E. Our current rates seem to already average at $.5/kwh, probably 5 times more than the rest of the country. I would wager that adoption of heatpumps is related to cost of electricity vs gas
  - CalRobert 2y ago
    Nomenclature but I generally think of the west coast on the national scale, but you're correct. I mean, downtown LA is definitely the west coast but it can be much much hotter than Santa Monica, 15 miles away. But you're right that expensive electricity kills the value proposition.
alistairSH 2y ago
Is the problem up-front cost on the heat pump (vs pure AC)? I have a friend remodeling a home in Seattle right now and they’re installing a heat pump in the extension/basement. Seems like a no-brainer given the relatively mild highs and lows. The original house had no AC and radiators of some sort (1920s build, maybe).
- toast0 2y ago
  Seattle is a great place for a heat pump. Depending on where you are, and your tree cover, most summer days are fine with windows open, but heat waves are icky. Otoh, below freezing is pretty rare, so most of the time, you'll be in the efficiency zone; on the big snow days, it's useful to move snow away from your outside unit to keep it working as well as it can in those conditions. Wall mounted units, common with mini-splits, probably don't have to worry about that. Utility natural gas is available in some places in the region, but not everywhere... Heating with propane would be pretty expensive, IMHO.
  - alistairSH 2y ago
    Yeah, they were fine without AC for years. But, with a kid on the way, they wanted more space, and liked their neighborhood enough to remodel vs move. Outside of the remodel, probably wouldn’t make sene to install AC/heat-pump, but once you’re spending hundreds of thousands, it’s a drop in the bucket and making a heatpump made sense.
- asielen 2y ago
  I'd love AC, but I'd only need it for a couple weeks a year in the bay area. And I have PG&E so the economics of a heat pump don't pencil out. Gas heating is still cheaper than a heat pump because electricity rates are out of control. (Gas isn't cheap either but still cheaper) California is doing everything it can to eliminate natural gas heating except for make the alternatives more affordable. PG&E and Socal Edison are basically given a bank check to keep raising rates by the oversight board. (Doesn't help that they are also burning down cities)
thechao 2y ago
I'm in Texas, and my HVAC guys all switched to heat pumps on their own houses a few years ago. The main problem is that most of are on electric AC and gas/propane heat; so, the switch to heat pump usually means throwing out either a perfectly good AC or a perfectly good heater, and installing a heat pump which is, generally about 50% more expensive than either: it's just a lot for a homeowner to swallow. For new builds, the entrenched builders have backlogs of old equipment that they don't want to lose capital on. It's a tough cycle to break.

christkv 2y ago

You can if it’s a new construction because mechanical ventilation and heat recuperation keeps humidity low enough to avoid condensation. We do it in our house but the panels are actually huge radiation surfaces installed in the ceiling with a low temperature differential to the temperature in the air. In winter we run the loop at around 25C and in summer at about 17-19C. We do need awnings to control direct sunlight into the house but it works pretty well. With the solar panels and batteries we have we generate about 50% of what we need.

CalRobert 2y ago
That's really cool! Can I ask roughly where this is? I wonder if it's an area with generally low humidity.
- christkv 2y ago
  Northern Spain, horrible humidity usually 80-100% max and low of 40-50% max. Company that’s did the installation is a startup https://sunthalpy.com/en/ https://sunthalpy.com/en/. I was worried humidity would be too high but after the building mass dried out it’s stable around 42-48% humidity no matter what the external humidity is.

ojhughes 2y ago

Most of the heat pump units in the UK market don’t operate as an AC unit. It’s a hard sell to rip out a working gas central heating system

CalRobert 2y ago
Yeah, ours don't either (yet) in large part since radiators are more common. Though at least in NL there's a lot of hybrid systems. You keep your gas boiler and attach a heat pump as well. The heat pump handles house heating and the gas boiler still heats domestic hot water.