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> say, a 1 to 20 bet that German democracy will itself self-immolate in, say, 15 years. I don’t see why it matters where I am located, but if we must talk abou
by konschubert 2y ago
> say, a 1 to 20 bet that German democracy will itself self-immolate in, say, 15 years.
I don’t see why it matters where I am located, but if we must talk about Germany then yes, I would say the odds are higher than that actually.
- hiAndrewQuinn 2y agoFascinating. I'll check back in with this HN account in 2040 then just for kicks.
- konschubert 2y agoI like HN because you can have interesting discussions, and because people usually argue their points. I think this is the first time that someone has responded to me in such a mean-spirited way, while providing no substantive response. I would prefer if you left this forum.
- hiAndrewQuinn 2y agoThere's nothing mean-spirited about asking people to put rough numbers to their beliefs, even approximately. But I do think most people would be genuinely surprised to hear you think there's over a 5% chance Germany the Western democracy won't exist in a generation. If it does happen I need to remember to revisit a lot of things about how I myself understand the world.