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This is where distributed renewable sources can apply. Supplying a remote home with solar and storage is probably cheaper than running a distribution line to i

This is where distributed renewable sources can apply. Supplying a remote home with solar and storage is probably cheaper than running a distribution line to it.

kelseyfrog 2y ago
I don't disagree. However, there is a positive feedback cycle lurking that can spin out of control faster than a behemoth corporation or government can react to.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  The underlying problem is that utilities are set up assuming their capital investments pay out over an extended period, but the technology is now changing over shorter timescales. The electric power industry is changing at a rate that it hasn't seen for over a century.
eldaisfish 2y ago
if your needs are fairly basic, sure. As soon as you add modernity, solar and storage for every house/region is cost-prohibitive.
- pfdietz 2y ago
  The average residential electricity rate in CA is $0.34/kWh. In these problematic locations, I'd expect the cost to be even more than this. Ground mount PV would be suitable here, so there would not be great problems with scaling. I think a PV + battery system should be competitive regardless of "modernity", whatever it was you meant by that. To put numbers on it: for a 12 kW system in Chico, CA (a location at ~40 degrees N I chose arbitrarily) the NREL calculator at https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php gives annual generation of 18500 kWh (40 degree inclination). For a lifespan of 20 years at $0.34/kWh this is $125800 worth of electricity. A 12 kW + 16 kWh LFP battery system costs something like $36K (+ installation and financing).
  - eldaisfish 2y ago
    while your general point is valid, the problem with simulations and estimates is that they have some severe caveats. The most significant is that modernity comes with immense demands on reliability and capacity. The solar estimates are based on averages. There will absolutely be times when your solar and battery system runs out of power. What then? What if you decide to buy an EV? Can you depend solely on solar? You cannot replace the grid, no matter what the simulations tell you. The whole reason the electricity grid was created in the first place was to solve problems of local resource constraints.

This is where distributed renewable sources can apply. Supplying a remote home with solar and storage is probably cheaper than running a distribution line to it.

kelseyfrog 2y ago

I don't disagree. However, there is a positive feedback cycle lurking that can spin out of control faster than a behemoth corporation or government can react to.

pfdietz 2y ago
The underlying problem is that utilities are set up assuming their capital investments pay out over an extended period, but the technology is now changing over shorter timescales. The electric power industry is changing at a rate that it hasn't seen for over a century.

eldaisfish 2y ago

if your needs are fairly basic, sure. As soon as you add modernity, solar and storage for every house/region is cost-prohibitive.

pfdietz 2y ago
The average residential electricity rate in CA is $0.34/kWh. In these problematic locations, I'd expect the cost to be even more than this. Ground mount PV would be suitable here, so there would not be great problems with scaling. I think a PV + battery system should be competitive regardless of "modernity", whatever it was you meant by that. To put numbers on it: for a 12 kW system in Chico, CA (a location at ~40 degrees N I chose arbitrarily) the NREL calculator at https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php gives annual generation of 18500 kWh (40 degree inclination). For a lifespan of 20 years at $0.34/kWh this is $125800 worth of electricity. A 12 kW + 16 kWh LFP battery system costs something like $36K (+ installation and financing).
- eldaisfish 2y ago
  while your general point is valid, the problem with simulations and estimates is that they have some severe caveats. The most significant is that modernity comes with immense demands on reliability and capacity. The solar estimates are based on averages. There will absolutely be times when your solar and battery system runs out of power. What then? What if you decide to buy an EV? Can you depend solely on solar? You cannot replace the grid, no matter what the simulations tell you. The whole reason the electricity grid was created in the first place was to solve problems of local resource constraints.