3 ms·

We're not likely to have commercial fusion within 20 to 30 years. Even if we do, it won't be to scale. At this point, we can just assume the AMOC is shutting do

We're not likely to have commercial fusion within 20 to 30 years. Even if we do, it won't be to scale. At this point, we can just assume the AMOC is shutting down as we've been doing very little to date to prevent that.

1970-01-01 2y ago
If the ITER timelines stop slipping, we're generating electricity from fusion in 25 years. If there is a major breakthrough, or one of the 'fusion startups' bears fruit, we're generating electricity in every major city within 10 years. One must have some hope.
- janice1999 2y ago
  Nuclear reactors connected to the grid in 2023 had a median construction time of 11 years. That's with proven technology. I doubt I will see commercial fusion in my lifetime.
  - 1970-01-01 2y ago
    That's comparing apples with oranges. We've already started construction. https://blog.lukmaanias.com/2024/12/26/breaking-boundaries-the-worlds-first-fusion-power-plant/#:~:text=2.%20Commercial%20Operation%20by%20Early%202030s%3A%20The%20ARC%20plant%20is%20projected%20to%20come%20online%20in%20the%20early%202030s%2C%20marking%20a%20historic%20moment%20for%20fusion%20energy%20as%20it%20connects%20to%20the%20power%20grid. https://blog.lukmaanias.com/2024/12/26/breaking-boundaries-t...
    - taylodl 2y ago
      That project is so "ambitious" I think it's more responsible to call it "wishful thinking" for these reasons: 1. We haven't been able to sustain a fusion reaction for longer than 1,000 seconds, just a little over 15 minutes. 2. These are research reactors. Scaling-up these reactors to commercial output may not be straightforward and may require considerably more research. 3. These reactors require tritium, which is not exactly abundant, and requires its own technological advancements in order to scale-up production to satisfy commercial needs. The project's "ambitious goals" is to hit 2030s? I'll be surprised if they hit their goals in the 2040s and even if they do - that's not a scale-out. You're talking another 10-20 years after that in order to have meaningful impact. That puts you in the 2050s or 2060s at the earliest. Using those more realistic timelines it's clear there's a high probability that the AMOC is going to shut down. So high a probability that it would be prudent to plan on it.
- LargoLasskhyfv 2y ago
  "Die Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt. Aber sie stirbt."

1970-01-01 2y ago

If the ITER timelines stop slipping, we're generating electricity from fusion in 25 years. If there is a major breakthrough, or one of the 'fusion startups' bears fruit, we're generating electricity in every major city within 10 years. One must have some hope.

janice1999 2y ago
Nuclear reactors connected to the grid in 2023 had a median construction time of 11 years. That's with proven technology. I doubt I will see commercial fusion in my lifetime.
- 1970-01-01 2y ago
  That's comparing apples with oranges. We've already started construction. https://blog.lukmaanias.com/2024/12/26/breaking-boundaries-the-worlds-first-fusion-power-plant/#:~:text=2.%20Commercial%20Operation%20by%20Early%202030s%3A%20The%20ARC%20plant%20is%20projected%20to%20come%20online%20in%20the%20early%202030s%2C%20marking%20a%20historic%20moment%20for%20fusion%20energy%20as%20it%20connects%20to%20the%20power%20grid. https://blog.lukmaanias.com/2024/12/26/breaking-boundaries-t...
  - taylodl 2y ago
    That project is so "ambitious" I think it's more responsible to call it "wishful thinking" for these reasons: 1. We haven't been able to sustain a fusion reaction for longer than 1,000 seconds, just a little over 15 minutes. 2. These are research reactors. Scaling-up these reactors to commercial output may not be straightforward and may require considerably more research. 3. These reactors require tritium, which is not exactly abundant, and requires its own technological advancements in order to scale-up production to satisfy commercial needs. The project's "ambitious goals" is to hit 2030s? I'll be surprised if they hit their goals in the 2040s and even if they do - that's not a scale-out. You're talking another 10-20 years after that in order to have meaningful impact. That puts you in the 2050s or 2060s at the earliest. Using those more realistic timelines it's clear there's a high probability that the AMOC is going to shut down. So high a probability that it would be prudent to plan on it.
LargoLasskhyfv 2y ago
"Die Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt. Aber sie stirbt."