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Tesla, as a car company, keeps botching basic car company stuff. Reliability. Parts. Repair. Pricing. New models. - The Model 3 came out in 2017, which was a w

Tesla, as a car company, keeps botching basic car company stuff. Reliability. Parts. Repair. Pricing. New models. - The Model 3 came out in 2017, which was a while back. The Model S did get a mid-cycle refresh. - The Cybertruck has been a dud. Sales are way down.[1] Rivian apparently outsells it. - By now, Tesla's Fake Self Driving isn't fooling anybody, now that people have seen Waymo really doing it. - Tesla is behind in batteries. They can now make round lithium-ion cells, the previous generation of technology. The current generation is more like BYD's "blade" battery, packaged up in rectangular modules. The next generation is fully solid state batteries, which CATL, BYD, Toyota, and Samsung are spending billions to make work. Tesla does not seem to be active in that area, beyond lab efforts. - China is getting rather good at making electric cars cheaply. It's not all labor cost. It's partly better design. BYD's "e-axle" is a unit with wheels, axles, differential, and motor. Plugs into a power electronics box and a battery. Plug in a CANbus cable to the controls and go. Simplifies manufacturing. - Tesla has repeatedly failed to get their costs down. Sales are down. Profits are down. - The CEO is not devoting full time to the job. These are all classic car-company mismanagement problems. There are points in GM, Chrysler, and VW history like that. Tesla likes to pretend they are a special snowflake, but they haven't been that for over a decade. [1] https://electrek.co/2025/01/02/tesla-cybertruck-sales-are-disastrous/ https://electrek.co/2025/01/02/tesla-cybertruck-sales-are-di...

akmarinov 2y ago
> The Model 3 came out in 2017, which was a while back. The Model S did get a mid-cycle refresh. The Model 3 got a refresh last year > Tesla is behind in batteries. They can now make round lithium-ion cells, the previous generation of technology. The current generation is more like BYD's "blade" battery, packaged up in rectangular modules. Tesla uses other people’s (usually Panasonic[1]) batteries, they manufacture them, but don’t develop them on their own. In China and Europe, they even use BYD’s blade batteries.[2] [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/panasonic-boost-battery-output-teslas-nevada-gigafactory-nikkei-2023-06-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/panaso... [2] https://carnewschina.com/2023/05/22/first-tesla-model-y-with-byd-blade-battery-rolled-off-the-production-line-in-germany-its-performance-is-surprising/ https://carnewschina.com/2023/05/22/first-tesla-model-y-with...
- Animats 2y ago
  Musk just announced Tesla will have self-driving Real Soon Now. Again.[1] "Teslas will be in the wild, with no one in them, in June in Austin," Musk said. "This is not some far-off mythical situation. It's literally five, six months away." [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicolekobie/2025/02/05/another-missed-prediction-musk-admits-teslas-need-full-self-driving-upgrades/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicolekobie/2025/02/05/another-...
  - akmarinov 2y ago
    Oh no doubt that’s not coming to people in the next 5-10 years. They’ll release whatever half baked thing they have in Austin, because Musk controls the government now and then when it kills a couple of people, they’ll roll it back with no consequences. At this point, it’s more likely that AGI will emerge first and be able to drive on its own than FSD unsupervised being ready.

akmarinov 2y ago

> The Model 3 came out in 2017, which was a while back. The Model S did get a mid-cycle refresh. The Model 3 got a refresh last year > Tesla is behind in batteries. They can now make round lithium-ion cells, the previous generation of technology. The current generation is more like BYD's "blade" battery, packaged up in rectangular modules. Tesla uses other people’s (usually Panasonic[1]) batteries, they manufacture them, but don’t develop them on their own. In China and Europe, they even use BYD’s blade batteries.[2] [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/panasonic-boost-battery-output-teslas-nevada-gigafactory-nikkei-2023-06-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/panaso... [2] https://carnewschina.com/2023/05/22/first-tesla-model-y-with-byd-blade-battery-rolled-off-the-production-line-in-germany-its-performance-is-surprising/ https://carnewschina.com/2023/05/22/first-tesla-model-y-with...

Animats 2y ago
Musk just announced Tesla will have self-driving Real Soon Now. Again.[1] "Teslas will be in the wild, with no one in them, in June in Austin," Musk said. "This is not some far-off mythical situation. It's literally five, six months away." [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicolekobie/2025/02/05/another-missed-prediction-musk-admits-teslas-need-full-self-driving-upgrades/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicolekobie/2025/02/05/another-...
- akmarinov 2y ago
  Oh no doubt that’s not coming to people in the next 5-10 years. They’ll release whatever half baked thing they have in Austin, because Musk controls the government now and then when it kills a couple of people, they’ll roll it back with no consequences. At this point, it’s more likely that AGI will emerge first and be able to drive on its own than FSD unsupervised being ready.