3 ms·

Whichever factions and sentiments gain power in the EU, there's only so much they can do before hitting the major factor that's usually not spelled out explicit

Whichever factions and sentiments gain power in the EU, there's only so much they can do before hitting the major factor that's usually not spelled out explicitly in polite company, but generally understood: the US has nukes and aircraft carriers. We don't - or at least not enough to replace US in the role it plays in Europe's security. I hope they won't be crazy enough to just bludgeon through that anyway, as past that, hic sunt dracones.

jamespo 2y ago
"As of July 2023, France possesses approximately 290 nuclear warheads" how many do you really need?
- pastage 2y ago
  The answer is none. AFAIK there are no simulations in which nuclear war works. I am not convinced nukes would have helped Ukraine.
mrtksn 2y ago
EU+UK has nukes and Aircraft carriers and even though minuscule to US, has the capacity to build more as the US security is no more. Also, as it was revealed with the war in Ukraine, the Americans spend crazy money on their military but they don't get the best value for it. They failed to provide the Ukraine the necessary ammunition and apparently the costs were multiple times higher with no better outcome compared to the Russian ones. In addition to that, the warfare changed significantly with the drones and its the Europeans(Ukraine + Turkey) who have the most experience with those - both in use and production. Mentioning Turkey, it's actually one of the most formidable militaries with very capable military industry complex. Although it has it's differences with EU, it is an EU candidate country and its economy is fully integrated with EU. Later on when things calm down with Russia, EU-Russia is actually a very fruitful relationship because Russia and EU are perfect match(one has the resources, the other has the technology) and that's why Europeans didn't want to believe that the war is possible. There are many more reasons not to be pessimistic about Europe too.
- robertlagrant 2y ago
  > Although it has it's differences with EU, it is an EU candidate country and its economy is fully integrated with EU. What is "fully integrated"? It's not on the Euro, for example.
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    Many EU countries are not in the Eurozone. Turkey and EU have a longstanding relationships with Turkey taking part in many of the EU institutions, like the customs union for example. In many ways Turkey acts as an industrial base for EU, many many EU companies have facilities in Turkey that serve EU. Turkey is also in the Council of Europe, is in the jurisdiction of European Court of Human Rights(pays a lots of fines, unfortunately), European Border and Coast Guard Agency. Turkey implemented GDPR compatible privacy laws, it has its infrastructure compatible and integrated with EU etc. Roads, electricity, gas, trains - everything is by the EU standards and integrated within the EU. Environment protection and worker rights are also not that far off. Turkey and EU fell apart only on political level and things like the upholding of the rule of law. In fact, Turkey is one secular government away from being full EU member. For comparison with US, Turkey exports about $140B to EU and only about $14B to US. No matter the politics, it's EU what matters to Turkey and US is a distant 3rd with being only about %8 of the Turkish exports(Europe is %58).
    - robertlagrant 2y ago
      > Many EU countries are not in the Eurozone. Well, 6 aren't. But then I wouldn't say their economies were "fully integrated".
      - TeMPOraL 2y ago
        7, and living one of them, I don't see any obvious signs of incomplete integration.
- pjc50 2y ago
  > EU-Russia is actually a very fruitful relationship That's a few decades away, at best; have to wait through Putin's death, the collapse, the post-collapse warlord era, and the reconstruction.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

jamespo 2y ago

"As of July 2023, France possesses approximately 290 nuclear warheads" how many do you really need?

pastage 2y ago
The answer is none. AFAIK there are no simulations in which nuclear war works. I am not convinced nukes would have helped Ukraine.

mrtksn 2y ago

EU+UK has nukes and Aircraft carriers and even though minuscule to US, has the capacity to build more as the US security is no more. Also, as it was revealed with the war in Ukraine, the Americans spend crazy money on their military but they don't get the best value for it. They failed to provide the Ukraine the necessary ammunition and apparently the costs were multiple times higher with no better outcome compared to the Russian ones. In addition to that, the warfare changed significantly with the drones and its the Europeans(Ukraine + Turkey) who have the most experience with those - both in use and production. Mentioning Turkey, it's actually one of the most formidable militaries with very capable military industry complex. Although it has it's differences with EU, it is an EU candidate country and its economy is fully integrated with EU. Later on when things calm down with Russia, EU-Russia is actually a very fruitful relationship because Russia and EU are perfect match(one has the resources, the other has the technology) and that's why Europeans didn't want to believe that the war is possible. There are many more reasons not to be pessimistic about Europe too.

robertlagrant 2y ago
> Although it has it's differences with EU, it is an EU candidate country and its economy is fully integrated with EU. What is "fully integrated"? It's not on the Euro, for example.
- mrtksn 2y ago
  Many EU countries are not in the Eurozone. Turkey and EU have a longstanding relationships with Turkey taking part in many of the EU institutions, like the customs union for example. In many ways Turkey acts as an industrial base for EU, many many EU companies have facilities in Turkey that serve EU. Turkey is also in the Council of Europe, is in the jurisdiction of European Court of Human Rights(pays a lots of fines, unfortunately), European Border and Coast Guard Agency. Turkey implemented GDPR compatible privacy laws, it has its infrastructure compatible and integrated with EU etc. Roads, electricity, gas, trains - everything is by the EU standards and integrated within the EU. Environment protection and worker rights are also not that far off. Turkey and EU fell apart only on political level and things like the upholding of the rule of law. In fact, Turkey is one secular government away from being full EU member. For comparison with US, Turkey exports about $140B to EU and only about $14B to US. No matter the politics, it's EU what matters to Turkey and US is a distant 3rd with being only about %8 of the Turkish exports(Europe is %58).
  - robertlagrant 2y ago
    > Many EU countries are not in the Eurozone. Well, 6 aren't. But then I wouldn't say their economies were "fully integrated".
    - TeMPOraL 2y ago
      7, and living one of them, I don't see any obvious signs of incomplete integration.
pjc50 2y ago
> EU-Russia is actually a very fruitful relationship That's a few decades away, at best; have to wait through Putin's death, the collapse, the post-collapse warlord era, and the reconstruction.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]