4 ms·

Here ya go: Academy attrition on page 38. https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2021-AFN_010-CWP2021.pdf https://www.faa.gov/

Here ya go: Academy attrition on page 38. https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2021-AFN_010-CWP2021.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf...

stackskipton 2y ago
Figure, it was in a PDF that search engines had trouble scraping. I feel like FAA is burying this data on purpose because it looks terrible. Reading deeper, on page 40 that has historical data, starting FY14 when this survey had been implemented and initial class hired, Academy Training Attrition appears to be much higher though all I can base this on is comparing bar graph sizes. So yes, this change to hiring process did impact staffing levels because academy attrition was higher.
- clutchdude 2y ago
  Possibly but I'd argue it's far from a smoking gun. The sequester of 2013 did a number on things and they hired to maximum capacity in the years after to make up for lost time. It stands to reason that by filling training to the max, they'd have more washouts due to lack of more attention during training. > The sequestration in 2013 and subsequent hiring freeze resulted in the FAA not hiring any new controllers for nearly 9 months across FY 2013 and FY 2014. The effects of this disruption on the hiring pipeline, as well as the FAA Air Traffic Academy’s operations, were substantial. https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2018-ABA-200-CWP_2019_Report_508.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf...
  - stackskipton 2y ago
    Yep, hmmm. It just sucks that this data which should be easy to find is not and FAA clearly has since they put out the report with it.
TraceWoodgrains 2y ago
This is really helpful. I take something different from it than you do (it looks like attrition starkly increases after 2014, in ways I'd strongly argue it's reasonable to attribute to the new hiring methods), but I'm grateful you posted it. Do you know if more complete/precise numbers are available anywhere (hiring counts, hiring+attrition, etc? I'm aware of this but it leaves attrition to be inferred. https://www.natca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/FY23-Staffing-Fact-Sheet-Talking-Points_2.pdf https://www.natca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/FY23-Staffi...
- clutchdude 2y ago
  I'm going to assume you mean "academy" attrition for sake of conversation. You have a wave of much higher attrition after 2013 because....You have a lot more trainees on fewer trainers. That means more load is placed on fewer trainers resulting on page 45 where you spike from 20% to 25% ratio. Combine that with the very valid point that this is not CIT folks but qualifying citizens being admitted, you can see the impact of having a 56% higher attrition rate! Here's a bunch of plans to comb through for the full numbers. I don't have a spreadsheet off hand. https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2021-AFN_010-CWP2021.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf... https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/2021-11/FAA-Controller-Workforce-Plan-2016-Final.pdf https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/2021-11/FAA-Controll... https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/cwp_2018.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf... https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2018-ABA-200-CWP_2019_Report_508.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf... Alas - my key point is this: the statement > Has this had a long-term impact on aviation safety and air traffic controller shortages? Likely yes." may have been highly attributable in 2018 timeframe but the real culprit is just as likely the 2013 sequester - I'd caution to say any one cause is the reason but rather there is a combination between a shift in applicant pool, having to deal with a slight burst in retirements, recovering from sequester and revamped training processes. Heck - maybe even not having an administrator from 2017-2018 might have caused issues. In the cold light of 2025 with impacts from COVID still reverberating, I'd doubt hiring practices as much as any other arbitrary reason.

stackskipton 2y ago

Figure, it was in a PDF that search engines had trouble scraping. I feel like FAA is burying this data on purpose because it looks terrible. Reading deeper, on page 40 that has historical data, starting FY14 when this survey had been implemented and initial class hired, Academy Training Attrition appears to be much higher though all I can base this on is comparing bar graph sizes. So yes, this change to hiring process did impact staffing levels because academy attrition was higher.

clutchdude 2y ago
Possibly but I'd argue it's far from a smoking gun. The sequester of 2013 did a number on things and they hired to maximum capacity in the years after to make up for lost time. It stands to reason that by filling training to the max, they'd have more washouts due to lack of more attention during training. > The sequestration in 2013 and subsequent hiring freeze resulted in the FAA not hiring any new controllers for nearly 9 months across FY 2013 and FY 2014. The effects of this disruption on the hiring pipeline, as well as the FAA Air Traffic Academy’s operations, were substantial. https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2018-ABA-200-CWP_2019_Report_508.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf...
- stackskipton 2y ago
  Yep, hmmm. It just sucks that this data which should be easy to find is not and FAA clearly has since they put out the report with it.

TraceWoodgrains 2y ago

This is really helpful. I take something different from it than you do (it looks like attrition starkly increases after 2014, in ways I'd strongly argue it's reasonable to attribute to the new hiring methods), but I'm grateful you posted it. Do you know if more complete/precise numbers are available anywhere (hiring counts, hiring+attrition, etc? I'm aware of this but it leaves attrition to be inferred. https://www.natca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/FY23-Staffing-Fact-Sheet-Talking-Points_2.pdf https://www.natca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/FY23-Staffi...

clutchdude 2y ago
I'm going to assume you mean "academy" attrition for sake of conversation. You have a wave of much higher attrition after 2013 because....You have a lot more trainees on fewer trainers. That means more load is placed on fewer trainers resulting on page 45 where you spike from 20% to 25% ratio. Combine that with the very valid point that this is not CIT folks but qualifying citizens being admitted, you can see the impact of having a 56% higher attrition rate! Here's a bunch of plans to comb through for the full numbers. I don't have a spreadsheet off hand. https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2021-AFN_010-CWP2021.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf... https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/2021-11/FAA-Controller-Workforce-Plan-2016-Final.pdf https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/2021-11/FAA-Controll... https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/cwp_2018.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf... https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2018-ABA-200-CWP_2019_Report_508.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf... Alas - my key point is this: the statement > Has this had a long-term impact on aviation safety and air traffic controller shortages? Likely yes." may have been highly attributable in 2018 timeframe but the real culprit is just as likely the 2013 sequester - I'd caution to say any one cause is the reason but rather there is a combination between a shift in applicant pool, having to deal with a slight burst in retirements, recovering from sequester and revamped training processes. Heck - maybe even not having an administrator from 2017-2018 might have caused issues. In the cold light of 2025 with impacts from COVID still reverberating, I'd doubt hiring practices as much as any other arbitrary reason.