4 ms·

COVID would likely have a bigger hand in the current issues than mistakes from 10-15 years ago though. I found it somewhat puzzling we discuss ATC staffing and

COVID would likely have a bigger hand in the current issues than mistakes from 10-15 years ago though. I found it somewhat puzzling we discuss ATC staffing and don't mention it: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2024-05-01/paving-way-controller-ramp https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2024-0... > When training at the academy resumed in July 2020, after the four-month shutdown, class sizes were cut in half to meet the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s social distancing guidelines. > The pandemic hit controller hiring and training hard with on-the-job training for developmental controllers significantly dropping at facilities, resulting in delayed certification. In fiscal year 2021, the controller hiring target was dropped from 910 to 500. > Since then, the FAA has been working to restore the training pipeline to full capacity. The agency’s Controller Workforce 2023/2032 Plan had a hiring target of 1,020 in FY 2022 (actual hires were 1,026) and 1,500 in FY 2023. The is set to increase to 1,800 in the current fiscal year.

stackskipton 2y ago
Yep, COVID didn't help either. However, I'll note that hiring != actual ATC controllers because drop/fail rate which for some insane reason is so hard to find.
- dgfitz 2y ago
  I'll never find it, but a few days ago someone here posted an anecdotal story that class sizes were between 10-20 and failure/drop rate was ~50%.
  - reginald78 2y ago
    I probably read the same thing, the most galling to me wasn't the failure rate it was that once you've failed you can never reapply.
    - robocat 2y ago
      For some jobs, your aptitude should matter. If a test has some discriminating power between people with aptitude and those without aptitude, then perhaps failing that test should really matter. For ATC staff perhaps OCD-adjacent traits are good and ADD-adjacent traits are bad. Maybe you don't want someone with epilepsy in ATC even though that's unfair. Maybe we all want to be Olympic athletes and a few work hard to become so, but what should happen if we lack some necessary skill?
      - dgfitz 2y ago
        US lawyers get multiple attempts to take the bar exam, as an example. Should they?
        stackskipton 2y ago
        Bar exam is different because it's just taking a test. Testing is really easy to scale. This is more not allowing something who dropped out of law school due to academics to be readmitted because law school slots are precious if your goal is to make X amount of lawyers per year.
  - varloid 2y ago
    Across 2023 and 2024 the en route academy pass rate was ~66% and terminal pass rate was ~73%. Of that, ~25% of en route trainees fail at their facility and ~15-20% of terminal trainees fail at their facility. There are ~2 en route trainees per terminal trainee.
- clutchdude 2y ago
  Here ya go: Academy attrition on page 38. https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2021-AFN_010-CWP2021.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf...
  - stackskipton 2y ago
    Figure, it was in a PDF that search engines had trouble scraping. I feel like FAA is burying this data on purpose because it looks terrible. Reading deeper, on page 40 that has historical data, starting FY14 when this survey had been implemented and initial class hired, Academy Training Attrition appears to be much higher though all I can base this on is comparing bar graph sizes. So yes, this change to hiring process did impact staffing levels because academy attrition was higher.
    - clutchdude 2y ago
      Possibly but I'd argue it's far from a smoking gun. The sequester of 2013 did a number on things and they hired to maximum capacity in the years after to make up for lost time. It stands to reason that by filling training to the max, they'd have more washouts due to lack of more attention during training. > The sequestration in 2013 and subsequent hiring freeze resulted in the FAA not hiring any new controllers for nearly 9 months across FY 2013 and FY 2014. The effects of this disruption on the hiring pipeline, as well as the FAA Air Traffic Academy’s operations, were substantial. https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2018-ABA-200-CWP_2019_Report_508.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf...
      - stackskipton 2y ago
        Yep, hmmm. It just sucks that this data which should be easy to find is not and FAA clearly has since they put out the report with it.
  - TraceWoodgrains 2y ago
    This is really helpful. I take something different from it than you do (it looks like attrition starkly increases after 2014, in ways I'd strongly argue it's reasonable to attribute to the new hiring methods), but I'm grateful you posted it. Do you know if more complete/precise numbers are available anywhere (hiring counts, hiring+attrition, etc? I'm aware of this but it leaves attrition to be inferred. https://www.natca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/FY23-Staffing-Fact-Sheet-Talking-Points_2.pdf https://www.natca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/FY23-Staffi...
briandear 2y ago
It wasn’t “Covid” — it was the vaccine mandate.

stackskipton 2y ago

Yep, COVID didn't help either. However, I'll note that hiring != actual ATC controllers because drop/fail rate which for some insane reason is so hard to find.

dgfitz 2y ago
I'll never find it, but a few days ago someone here posted an anecdotal story that class sizes were between 10-20 and failure/drop rate was ~50%.
- reginald78 2y ago
  I probably read the same thing, the most galling to me wasn't the failure rate it was that once you've failed you can never reapply.
  - robocat 2y ago
    For some jobs, your aptitude should matter. If a test has some discriminating power between people with aptitude and those without aptitude, then perhaps failing that test should really matter. For ATC staff perhaps OCD-adjacent traits are good and ADD-adjacent traits are bad. Maybe you don't want someone with epilepsy in ATC even though that's unfair. Maybe we all want to be Olympic athletes and a few work hard to become so, but what should happen if we lack some necessary skill?
    - dgfitz 2y ago
      US lawyers get multiple attempts to take the bar exam, as an example. Should they?
      - stackskipton 2y ago
        Bar exam is different because it's just taking a test. Testing is really easy to scale. This is more not allowing something who dropped out of law school due to academics to be readmitted because law school slots are precious if your goal is to make X amount of lawyers per year.
- varloid 2y ago
  Across 2023 and 2024 the en route academy pass rate was ~66% and terminal pass rate was ~73%. Of that, ~25% of en route trainees fail at their facility and ~15-20% of terminal trainees fail at their facility. There are ~2 en route trainees per terminal trainee.
clutchdude 2y ago
Here ya go: Academy attrition on page 38. https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2021-AFN_010-CWP2021.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf...
- stackskipton 2y ago
  Figure, it was in a PDF that search engines had trouble scraping. I feel like FAA is burying this data on purpose because it looks terrible. Reading deeper, on page 40 that has historical data, starting FY14 when this survey had been implemented and initial class hired, Academy Training Attrition appears to be much higher though all I can base this on is comparing bar graph sizes. So yes, this change to hiring process did impact staffing levels because academy attrition was higher.
  - clutchdude 2y ago
    Possibly but I'd argue it's far from a smoking gun. The sequester of 2013 did a number on things and they hired to maximum capacity in the years after to make up for lost time. It stands to reason that by filling training to the max, they'd have more washouts due to lack of more attention during training. > The sequestration in 2013 and subsequent hiring freeze resulted in the FAA not hiring any new controllers for nearly 9 months across FY 2013 and FY 2014. The effects of this disruption on the hiring pipeline, as well as the FAA Air Traffic Academy’s operations, were substantial. https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/2018-ABA-200-CWP_2019_Report_508.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staf...
    - stackskipton 2y ago
      Yep, hmmm. It just sucks that this data which should be easy to find is not and FAA clearly has since they put out the report with it.
- TraceWoodgrains 2y ago
  This is really helpful. I take something different from it than you do (it looks like attrition starkly increases after 2014, in ways I'd strongly argue it's reasonable to attribute to the new hiring methods), but I'm grateful you posted it. Do you know if more complete/precise numbers are available anywhere (hiring counts, hiring+attrition, etc? I'm aware of this but it leaves attrition to be inferred. https://www.natca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/FY23-Staffing-Fact-Sheet-Talking-Points_2.pdf https://www.natca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/FY23-Staffi...

briandear 2y ago

It wasn’t “Covid” — it was the vaccine mandate.