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I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the
by kennysoona 2y ago
I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd.
It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the emerging superpower, cementing them as a superpower. I wonder if that will happen with the US.
- guerrilla 2y agoThe latter is called Thucydides Trap.
- MangoCoffee 2y agoWho is going to replace US? China? Its economy is on the decline with deflation, debts, real estates problem...etc. Europe? Japan?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- matteuan 2y agoBehind this there is the wrong assumption that there must be a replacement for all. For sure there will be gaps filled by other powers, but it's not necessary, we just got used to it.
- the_clarence 2y agoThe problem is that China is still self sufficient. Huge country with a single timezone and great infrastructure and now has the expertise to produce for itself and enough people to buy its own products. Sure there's going to be some instability but even then the dictatorship is helping in preventing people to go too crazy. There's a reason musk is pushing for babies: the US is mostly empty land with a few large cities.
- CAP_NET_ADMIN 2y agoMaybe they have one timezone, but there are multiple "China's"
- SmirkingRevenge 2y agoFascist movements usually crusade for more babies and venture into (futile) nationalistic pro-natalist policies to try and drive up birth rates. Sometimes they fully commit to eugenics programs. It's a thing. But there's a catch. Some kinds of babies are good and other babies are bad (in their view). They only want "good" babies. Trump's unconstitutional executive order targeting birthright citizenship tells you all you need to know about who they think the bad ones are. And though many have tried, no country has figured out how to meaningfully drive up birth rates with pro-natalist policies. There's only one proven way to get more babies and sustain economic growth when native birthrates decline: MORE IMMIGRATION. If immigration to the US continues apace, we surpass China's total population within decades and continue strong economic growth comfortably. If TrumpElon really manage to kill the golden goose, welp... it's been real.
- the_clarence 2y agoI don't get your comment. You are saying immigration is the solution to more babies because we haven't figured out yet how to make the local populace make more babies? That doesn't hold. You can't just say there is no solution to a problem because a solution hasn't been found yet.
- SmirkingRevenge 2y agoThat's not quite what I'm saying. First, I'm saying Musk's apparent interest in birth rates is best understood as a component of the neo-fascist, authoritarian project in which he's embedded himself, the likes of which we've seen many times throughout history, and is the kind of thing that often culminates in large scale atrocity. Second, I'm saying for anyone who is truly interested in driving population growth, the last thing one would do is inhibit immigration. Instead, you'd open the floodgates.
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- throw0101b 2y ago> Who is going to replace US? No one. And everyone. That's the point. There will be no on 'policing' things (even imperfectly), and so anyone who wants to do a power grab will make an attempt. "Those in positions of power do what their power permits, while the weak have no choice but to accept it." — Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War, 5.89
- JohnBooty 2y agoThere will be no one 'policing' things (even imperfectly) Pirates (like actual sea pirates, not kids downloading warez) definitely look forward to this. Although, that's a specific part of the "world policing" role that I can see China stepping into. They certainly have the manpower and the shipbuilding capacity, and they certainly have the incentive to protect international shipping so they can sell their goods everywhere. I don't think China (yet) wants any part of the other bits of world policing, like deploying armies and/or funding proxy wars on the other side of the world.
- SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago> I don't think China (yet) wants any part of funding proxy wars IDK, I could see China funding a proxy war in Ukraine, any time soon. Just not in a good way, so to speak.
- JohnBooty 2y agoFor the forseeable future I think China mostly wants to stay as neutral as possible and make as much money as possible by selling as much crap as possible to as many countries as possible. I don't think they want the US as an enemy. It's not good business for them. I have a 100% unsupported belief that 100% of the public messaging from all sides regarding Taiwan is complete BS. I think that behind closed doors, all parties (except maybe Taiwan themselves) are working out a deal so that Taiwan winds up back in China's hands in the next 10-15 years without a war and everybody gets to save some face. I think that the CHIPS act, TSMC foundries on US soil, etc are all part of this process. It is the most mutually beneficial situation for the US and China: they get Taiwan; we get non-traumatic continuity for our chip supplies, everybody gets to save face, etc. (I'm not endorsing it or decrying it or even touching the morality or lack thereof)
- SideburnsOfDoom 2y agoA swift google suggests that your assertion that China's economy is "on the decline" to any great extent is quite false. As they say, citation needed. And, well put this way: the management in China seems to be more grown-up and stable, which is better for long-term prospects.
- MangoCoffee 2y ago> China's economy is "on the decline" to any great extent is quite false https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr54x00857o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr54x00857o https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/20/chinese-economy-slowdown-real-estate-crisis/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/20/chinese-econ... https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-deflation/ https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-deflation/ https://www.aei.org/economics/chinas-economy-is-in-deep-trouble/ https://www.aei.org/economics/chinas-economy-is-in-deep-trou... https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/03/xi-china-economic-decline-population-ccp/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/03/xi-china-economic-decli... https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/business/chinas-gdp-q2.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/business/chinas-gdp-q2.ht...
- SideburnsOfDoom 2y agoFirst article: "China's economy expanded in the third quarter at the slowest pace", second article, "Growth in the world’s second-largest economy is slowing " "growing slowly" != "declining"
- ben_w 2y agoThese quotes do not support the claim of "on the decline", they show the rate at which the economy is growing is not as fast as before, but still at perfectly respectable rates: > https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr54x00857o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr54x00857o "China's economy expanded in the third quarter at the slowest pace since early last year, as the country struggles to boost flagging growth." > https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/20/chinese-economy-slowdown-real-estate-crisis/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/20/chinese-econ... "It has been a grim month for the Chinese economy: A slew of recent data has revealed the world’s second-largest economy is slowing faster than expected, causing analysts to predict it will miss its relatively modest 5 percent growth target this year." > https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-deflation/ https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-deflation/ *Chart showing growth in all but one quarter since the start of 2019, and good growth in all but one of the growing quarters* > https://www.aei.org/economics/chinas-economy-is-in-deep-trouble/ https://www.aei.org/economics/chinas-economy-is-in-deep-trou... "This week’s disappointing Chinese GDP (gross domestic product) numbers showed that Chinese economic growth has slowed to 4.75 percent from the very rapid annual economic growth rate of seven to eight percent during the 2010s" > https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/03/xi-china-economic-decline-population-ccp/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/03/xi-china-economic-decli... "China’s economy is performing dreadfully. The post-pandemic bounce was far smaller and briefer than the Chinese government had anticipated. Despite recording a respectable, if diminished, official growth rate of 5.2 percent in 2023, the reality may have been much slower, with some analysts estimating growth was no more than 1-2 percent." > https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/business/chinas-gdp-q2.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/business/chinas-gdp-q2.ht... "China’s economy grew 0.7 percent in the second quarter over the previous three months, below the expectations of most economists. When projected out for the entire year, the economy grew at an annual rate of about 2.8 percent — a little less than half the rate in the first three months of this year." The USA, by comparison, was 2.5% in 2023. If China is "in decline" from these numbers, so is the USA.
- s_dev 2y ago>Who is going to replace US? There doesn't have to be a replacement. Just like nobody replaced the USSR after the Cold War ended leaving the US as the worlds lone super power. A world can exist with no super powers and with multiple conventional powers.
- ZeroGravitas 2y agoA bunch of Network states run by libertarians with blackjack and bitcoin. https://www.thenerdreich.com/trumps-weird-freedom-cities-and-the-network-state-cult/ https://www.thenerdreich.com/trumps-weird-freedom-cities-and... Wonder how long they'd last if Greenland, Panama and Gaza are up for grabs by non-network states though.
- queuebert 2y agoWe fought a literal civil war and bounced back. We've had multiple presidents assassinated but still had continuity of power. I doubt the U.S. is going anywhere anytime soon except maybe down a couple slots on the world's largest economies lists, and that's soley due to population growth. Some of us who are optimistic believe that the uniqueness of the U.S. lies in its favorable environment for innovation (e.g. YC), so we hope to invent our way out of problems. We grew up on hopeful sci-fi and will stick to it until our bitter end.
- agapon 2y agoThat was back then when people believed in their country, in republic and democracy...
- bookaway 2y ago>We grew up on hopeful sci-fi and will stick to it until our bitter end. American optimism and hope did not derive itself from "hopeful sci-fi" or tech. The sci-fi and tech came in its superpower phase, post-WWII. American optimism preceded that by decades if not centuries, because its population believed--despite everything--that as country it always strove to act in a morally just manner both domestically and internationally. What's more is that this mythology, cause that's what it was, happened to be accepted by much of world as well. That accomplishment in persuasion exceeds any accomplishment in short-term innovation when the goal is to maintain a long-lasting empire. There was a time when many thought Nazi Germany was the most innovative and advanced entity in the world. Yet, even at the time, no one who believed that would care to immigrate to Nazi Germany for that reason. The same would be true if China became the most technologically advanced country in the world. It is the man-child delusion of the broligarchy to claim that American optimism is (was) rooted in technological advancement. "Everything not saved will be lost." -- Nintendo
- arp242 2y agoHow do you invent your way out of authoritarian leadership and a sizeable chunk of the population cheering that on? And there's more dystopian sci-fi than there is hopeful sci-fi. This is not a technical problem; it's a societal/social one.
- aaronharnly 2y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap > Thucydides Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon > Allison led a study at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that, among a sample of 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war.[3] That study, however, has come under considerable criticism, and scholarly opinion on the value of the Thucydides Trap concept—particularly as it relates to a potential military conflict between the United States and China—remains divided.
- ben_w 2y ago> I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. Aye. It's illogical to call to "Make America Great *Again*" while also claiming there's no decline. Logic isn't how politics works, so that doesn't stop it.
- pseudalopex 2y ago> It's illogical to call to "Make America Great Again" while also claiming there's no decline. The logic is undiminished potential hobbled by weak leaders, sinister cabals, and their enablers.
- ben_w 2y agoWhat, the cabinet? :P But seriously, even last time, with 2016's MAGA slogans including "drain the swamp", there's a gap between "great but we could be better if not for them" and the implicit absent greatness of the initials forming MAGA.
- pseudalopex 2y agoNot great but we could be better. Great naturally but restrained artificially.
- iJohnDoe 2y agoWhich is insane when people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Devin Nunes, Jim Jordan, and Doug Collins, among others, are not considered as "drain the swamp".
- ben_w 2y agoGiven what I've seen of Greene, I feel I am better off not knowing who Doug Collins is, and only vaguely recognising Jim Jordan and that Nunes has something to do with cows. The USA may be happy to cast psychic damage on itself, I wish to only learn what I must to defend myself from the nonsense that spills outside your borders. :)
- tim333 2y agoThe US isn't doing bad but it's had a relative decline because the rest of the world is advancing. In the 1950s much of the world was wrecked from WW2 and socialism didn't do much for India and China. Now they are mostly doing quite well. In the cultural revolution China sent all it's educated out to the fields or worse. Now: >China awarded 1.38 million engineering bachelor’s degrees in 2020. The comparable American number is 197,000 https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/a-tale-of-two-talents/ https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/a-tale-of-two-talents/ That's China advance, not a US decline.
- immibis 2y agoThe US has already practically surrendered economically by ceasing to produce things. The copium was that the USA produces designs to be manufactured by China, but now China designs things too and they're better and cheaper. If not for inertia, we'd be doing international payments in something linked to yuan, or euros (China has a stronger economy but it doesn't like to let people use its currency outside its borders, so might be disqualified).