You are over-estimating the financial sector. They don't model these things. Models are rather simple (US 0% risk, this country x% risk because a handful of ins

You are over-estimating the financial sector. They don't model these things. Models are rather simple (US 0% risk, this country x% risk because a handful of institutions said, etc...). There is really not much science, research or sophistication there. Take the stock market, pretty much everyone is following everyone else.