3 ms·

Fellas, I got a question. Is it really safe to fly these days if this is now a national discussion?

psunavy03 2y ago
It has always been and will continue to be more safe than driving to the airport. The fact that something extraordinarily safe is potentially less safe is a topic for discussion, but not at the expense of realizing the relative risks of everything else. Prior to the midair at DCA, there had not been a fatal (edit) airliner crash in this country since 2009, and there had not been a midair collision involving an airliner since the 1970s. The fact that some people have an irrational fear of flying does not justify that irrational fear dictating policy any more than people who have an irrational fear of clowns wanting them banned.
- iancmceachern 2y ago
  But is it as safe today as it was a year ago today?
  - psunavy03 2y ago
    Statistically, yes.
    - jjk166 2y ago
      Based on what data? In 2024 there were 0 domestic airline collisions in 16 million flights, in 2025 there was 1 in 1.3 million.
      - bluGill 2y ago
        Which is statistically the same number.
        iancmceachern 2y ago
        Then we are looking at the wrong (meaningless) statistics. The while point of stats is to turn data into meaningful distillatios of trends so that we can act upon them. If plane crash deaths are increasing and its not shown in the stats, then we need better stats no?
        bluGill 2y ago
        Are you trying to "lie with statistics" or find a truth. Right now there is not data showing things are getting worse - this looks like random rare events. If things are slightly worse is will take a while to figure that out.
    - iancmceachern 2y ago
      How many crashes do the statistics allow before they start reflecting a different answer to my question?
- kaikai 2y ago
  Where are your dates from? According to the Wikipedia page, there have been multiple fatal plane crashes in the US since 2009, including a midair collision in 2019 (although not an airliner). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_accidents_and_...
  - jgwil2 2y ago
    The parent commenter misspoke; they meant there was not a fatal accident involving a commercial airliner from 2009 to 2025. Commercial aviation is much more highly regulated, and much safer, than general aviation.
    - kaikai 2y ago
      Nope, sorry, that page describes multiple commercial accidents resulting in fatalities, since 2009. The Asiana crash at SFO had multiple fatalities, and was in 2013. From the Wikipedia page: “This is a list of fatal commercial aviation accidents and incidents in or in the vicinity of the United States or its territories. It comprises a subset of both the list of accidents and incidents involving airliners in the United States and the list of accidents and incidents involving commercial aircraft. It does not include fatalities due to accidents and incidents solely involving private aircraft or military aircraft.”
      - mplanchard 2y ago
        The 2009 fact is commercial US airlines, specifically
- sho_hn 2y ago
  There are fatal plane crashes in the US every year - in General Aviation (which often may not talk to ATC at all). Important to make the distinction :-)
  - psunavy03 2y ago
    I meant airliner crash.
- almosthere 2y ago
  whats the current miles driven vs miles flown vs death rates of both? Not taking a side, I'm just curious here.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  > The fact that something extraordinarily safe is potentially less safe is a topic for discussion, but not at the expense of realizing the relative risks of everything else. Given the leadership, I don't trust it to not get less safe, fast. We're not in statistically normal times. I highly doubt it's a coincidence that Trump fires various controllers and less than a week later we get that first midair collision in 16 years. You can talk statistics, but the physics are another magnitude. I get in a really bad wreck and car safety standards may let me walk away without a scratch. No amount of safety can protect against a multi thousand foot droop from freefall.
- gtsop 2y ago
  > The fact that some people have an irrational fear of flying does not justify that irrational fear dictating policy Go tell that to the casualties. Oh wait, you can't. Which part of them being dead is irrational exactly?
mooreds 2y ago
Here's a study[0] looking at data from 2022 that says flying keeps getting safer. The press release[1] has some nice quotes: > “You might think there is some irreducible risk level we can’t get below,” adds Barnett, a leading expert in air travel safety and operations. “And yet, the chance of dying during an air journey keeps dropping by about 7 percent annually, and continues to go down by a factor of two every decade.” 0: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0969699724001066 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09696... 1: https://news.mit.edu/2024/study-flying-keeps-getting-safer-0807 https://news.mit.edu/2024/study-flying-keeps-getting-safer-0...
- bloopernova 2y ago
  I think the grandparent comment is asking within the context of the past couple of weeks. Not saying that your sources aren't useful or anything.
foxyv 2y ago
USA Air Traffic deaths spiked back in 2018 during the Boeing 737 Max debacle. They have declined since then. With the introduction of ADS-B things are only getting safer for commercial air travel. A lack of ATC personnel will probably just mean airport delays and cancelled flights. They can't get any more tired and burnt out than they are now.
- userbinator 2y ago
  No, the 737 Max didn't cause any fatalities in the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_610 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_610 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_302 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_302
  - foxyv 2y ago
    Ahh, you're right, I was looking at international data. Thank you! This is the USA data: https://www.bts.gov/content/us-air-carrier-safety-data https://www.bts.gov/content/us-air-carrier-safety-data
ranger_danger 2y ago
I don't think there can be a single simple answer to that question.
ethbr1 2y ago
As with all things in current news: yes. The reason this (and Boeing before it) are in the news is because the US air system is incredibly safe. For perspective, there are ~27,000 US passenger flights per day. [0] I think the last commercial US passenger carrier midair collision was in 1990? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mid-air_collisions https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mid-air_collisions [0] https://www.airlines.org/impact/ https://www.airlines.org/impact/
School-Cotton 2y ago
Define safe. A fully loaded 747 could crash in the US every day and you’d still have a 99.98% chance of being fine when you fly. (Approximate numbers: 3M US passengers per day, 600 people on a 747).

It has always been and will continue to be more safe than driving to the airport. The fact that something extraordinarily safe is potentially less safe is a topic for discussion, but not at the expense of realizing the relative risks of everything else. Prior to the midair at DCA, there had not been a fatal (edit) airliner crash in this country since 2009, and there had not been a midair collision involving an airliner since the 1970s. The fact that some people have an irrational fear of flying does not justify that irrational fear dictating policy any more than people who have an irrational fear of clowns wanting them banned.

iancmceachern 2y ago
But is it as safe today as it was a year ago today?
- psunavy03 2y ago
  Statistically, yes.
  - jjk166 2y ago
    Based on what data? In 2024 there were 0 domestic airline collisions in 16 million flights, in 2025 there was 1 in 1.3 million.
    - bluGill 2y ago
      Which is statistically the same number.
      - iancmceachern 2y ago
        Then we are looking at the wrong (meaningless) statistics. The while point of stats is to turn data into meaningful distillatios of trends so that we can act upon them. If plane crash deaths are increasing and its not shown in the stats, then we need better stats no?
        bluGill 2y ago
        Are you trying to "lie with statistics" or find a truth. Right now there is not data showing things are getting worse - this looks like random rare events. If things are slightly worse is will take a while to figure that out.
  - iancmceachern 2y ago
    How many crashes do the statistics allow before they start reflecting a different answer to my question?
kaikai 2y ago
Where are your dates from? According to the Wikipedia page, there have been multiple fatal plane crashes in the US since 2009, including a midair collision in 2019 (although not an airliner). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_accidents_and_...
- jgwil2 2y ago
  The parent commenter misspoke; they meant there was not a fatal accident involving a commercial airliner from 2009 to 2025. Commercial aviation is much more highly regulated, and much safer, than general aviation.
  - kaikai 2y ago
    Nope, sorry, that page describes multiple commercial accidents resulting in fatalities, since 2009. The Asiana crash at SFO had multiple fatalities, and was in 2013. From the Wikipedia page: “This is a list of fatal commercial aviation accidents and incidents in or in the vicinity of the United States or its territories. It comprises a subset of both the list of accidents and incidents involving airliners in the United States and the list of accidents and incidents involving commercial aircraft. It does not include fatalities due to accidents and incidents solely involving private aircraft or military aircraft.”
    - mplanchard 2y ago
      The 2009 fact is commercial US airlines, specifically
sho_hn 2y ago
There are fatal plane crashes in the US every year - in General Aviation (which often may not talk to ATC at all). Important to make the distinction :-)
- psunavy03 2y ago
  I meant airliner crash.
almosthere 2y ago
whats the current miles driven vs miles flown vs death rates of both? Not taking a side, I'm just curious here.
johnnyanmac 2y ago
> The fact that something extraordinarily safe is potentially less safe is a topic for discussion, but not at the expense of realizing the relative risks of everything else. Given the leadership, I don't trust it to not get less safe, fast. We're not in statistically normal times. I highly doubt it's a coincidence that Trump fires various controllers and less than a week later we get that first midair collision in 16 years. You can talk statistics, but the physics are another magnitude. I get in a really bad wreck and car safety standards may let me walk away without a scratch. No amount of safety can protect against a multi thousand foot droop from freefall.
gtsop 2y ago
> The fact that some people have an irrational fear of flying does not justify that irrational fear dictating policy Go tell that to the casualties. Oh wait, you can't. Which part of them being dead is irrational exactly?

mooreds 2y ago

Here's a study[0] looking at data from 2022 that says flying keeps getting safer. The press release[1] has some nice quotes: > “You might think there is some irreducible risk level we can’t get below,” adds Barnett, a leading expert in air travel safety and operations. “And yet, the chance of dying during an air journey keeps dropping by about 7 percent annually, and continues to go down by a factor of two every decade.” 0: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0969699724001066 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09696... 1: https://news.mit.edu/2024/study-flying-keeps-getting-safer-0807 https://news.mit.edu/2024/study-flying-keeps-getting-safer-0...

bloopernova 2y ago
I think the grandparent comment is asking within the context of the past couple of weeks. Not saying that your sources aren't useful or anything.

foxyv 2y ago

USA Air Traffic deaths spiked back in 2018 during the Boeing 737 Max debacle. They have declined since then. With the introduction of ADS-B things are only getting safer for commercial air travel. A lack of ATC personnel will probably just mean airport delays and cancelled flights. They can't get any more tired and burnt out than they are now.

userbinator 2y ago
No, the 737 Max didn't cause any fatalities in the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_610 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_610 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_302 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_302
- foxyv 2y ago
  Ahh, you're right, I was looking at international data. Thank you! This is the USA data: https://www.bts.gov/content/us-air-carrier-safety-data https://www.bts.gov/content/us-air-carrier-safety-data

ranger_danger 2y ago

I don't think there can be a single simple answer to that question.

ethbr1 2y ago

As with all things in current news: yes. The reason this (and Boeing before it) are in the news is because the US air system is incredibly safe. For perspective, there are ~27,000 US passenger flights per day. [0] I think the last commercial US passenger carrier midair collision was in 1990? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mid-air_collisions https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mid-air_collisions [0] https://www.airlines.org/impact/ https://www.airlines.org/impact/

School-Cotton 2y ago

Define safe. A fully loaded 747 could crash in the US every day and you’d still have a 99.98% chance of being fine when you fly. (Approximate numbers: 3M US passengers per day, 600 people on a 747).