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The people who can do anything about it aren't concerned. The SP500 is normal today, institutional money is fine with this.

by vkou 2y ago

archagon 2y ago
Yeah, because Microsoft is not affected the slightest if someone arbitrarily loses their research funding or stops receiving social security checks.
- vkou 2y ago
  That's not the important risk here. The important risk is a runaway executive that feels completely unconstrained by law, with the blessing of both other branches of government. Today, it's blocking members of the legislature from entering government buildings and is unilaterally shutting down an agency that exists on a directive of Congress. Tomorrow, will it carry out any legislature that congress passes? In a year, will it comply with an impeachment?
- jghn 2y ago
  You'd be surprised how much AWS, Azure, GCP, etc take in indirectly from research science.
abeppu 2y ago
Yeah, what's up with that? Does this treasury department payment system not also cover the payments made to bondholders? Every time Congress delays raising the debt ceiling until the last minute, people get anxious and worry about a default and the full faith and credit of the US, etc. Are we now saying that the US could default even when funds are available if an un-elected guy and some junior programmers decide that would be a good idea or just mess up when dealing with a complex and arcane legacy system, and that's not scary to markets? I would think every financial model that references a "risk-free rate" now has to be revisited while people consider whether any information visible to the Treasury Department might link their account to someone who has said something disparaging about Musk on twitter.
- csomar 2y ago
  You are over-estimating the financial sector. They don't model these things. Models are rather simple (US 0% risk, this country x% risk because a handful of institutions said, etc...). There is really not much science, research or sophistication there. Take the stock market, pretty much everyone is following everyone else.
- EdwardDiego 2y ago
  Maybe market sentiment is an expression of faith in the US legal system? He said hopefully? Or maybe the market expects certain people to get richer shortly? He said cynically.

The people who can do anything about it aren't concerned. The SP500 is normal today, institutional money is fine with this.

by vkou 2y ago

The people who can do anything about it aren't concerned. The SP500 is normal today, institutional money is fine with this.

archagon 2y ago

Yeah, because Microsoft is not affected the slightest if someone arbitrarily loses their research funding or stops receiving social security checks.

vkou 2y ago
That's not the important risk here. The important risk is a runaway executive that feels completely unconstrained by law, with the blessing of both other branches of government. Today, it's blocking members of the legislature from entering government buildings and is unilaterally shutting down an agency that exists on a directive of Congress. Tomorrow, will it carry out any legislature that congress passes? In a year, will it comply with an impeachment?
jghn 2y ago
You'd be surprised how much AWS, Azure, GCP, etc take in indirectly from research science.

abeppu 2y ago

Yeah, what's up with that? Does this treasury department payment system not also cover the payments made to bondholders? Every time Congress delays raising the debt ceiling until the last minute, people get anxious and worry about a default and the full faith and credit of the US, etc. Are we now saying that the US could default even when funds are available if an un-elected guy and some junior programmers decide that would be a good idea or just mess up when dealing with a complex and arcane legacy system, and that's not scary to markets? I would think every financial model that references a "risk-free rate" now has to be revisited while people consider whether any information visible to the Treasury Department might link their account to someone who has said something disparaging about Musk on twitter.

csomar 2y ago
You are over-estimating the financial sector. They don't model these things. Models are rather simple (US 0% risk, this country x% risk because a handful of institutions said, etc...). There is really not much science, research or sophistication there. Take the stock market, pretty much everyone is following everyone else.
EdwardDiego 2y ago
Maybe market sentiment is an expression of faith in the US legal system? He said hopefully? Or maybe the market expects certain people to get richer shortly? He said cynically.