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Maybe, but if you’re allocating all that resource in STEM, where do the essential trades (carpenters, plumbers, construction in general) come from? Without immi

Maybe, but if you’re allocating all that resource in STEM, where do the essential trades (carpenters, plumbers, construction in general) come from? Without immigration, It’s a finite resource pool. The analysis of losing unproductive workers and replacing them with highly skilled STEM graduates seems like a recipe for upset when a healthy economy needs more than just STEM.

maxglute 2y ago
STEM is still "just" 1/4 of workforce. Another 1/2 is going to be in other tertiary or vocational including trades. The side benefit of STEM overcapacity is you can drive skilled labour costs down in highvalue/strategic sectors, and the flame outs can do other shit i.e. foreign doctors driving Ubers in the States. China will have STEMs who aren't "good enough" doing banal work too. Except you can get upskilled people to work low skilled jobs and not vice versa, i.e. US isn't going to get glut of humanity degrees to fill fabs. Will there be as many cheap workers as last couple decades pouring 100 years worth of US concrete in 3? No, hence why all the upfront build infra investment right now, while blue collar still somewhat plentiful and cheap. Meanwhile, tons of resources pouring into automation / humanoid robots, because at PRC scale, IMO can't really immigrate/migrant worker way out of issue. Not saying it's not possible, see meme of circle around Asia where 50% of humans live. There's likely still going to be a lot of accessible cheap bodies around if culture willing to tolerate it. The broader picture is big % (like 30%+) of PRC workforce has been (and will be until they die) bluntly... net drag. There were always 100s of millions of farming households (functionally a jobs program) and informal workers spinning wheels doing shit all. All the labourers and workers pouring concrete and building factories were only ever fraction of PRC workforce. PRC losing the fraction that doesn't do much and replacing it with a smaller fraction that does a lot, and when aggregate # of workers that does a lot is 2x-3x more than peers (vs past where peers had orders of magnitude more skilled than PRC), then that's much better net position for future when competing on high tech / high value. Another added benefit of not having 100s of millions of excess mouth to feed and fuel and future PRC demographics is also going to enable strategic autarky like US. IMO PRC "finite" still too much. There are a lot of benefits to where PRC demographics is trending within our lifetimes. Of course if they don't figure out TFR in 30-40 years things will get real bad in 60-70 years, but that's time frame too distant to extrapolate.
- wordpad25 2y ago
  such a shift in demographics will bring a lot of difficult societal problems that come with emerging Middle Class who will want more housing and more freedoms
  - maxglute 2y ago
    Social problems mostly 4:2:1 depedency ratios, i.e. elder care. Hence PRC pouring a lot of resource into this sector, but TBH unless automation catches up, they're just going to follow JP model - old people are going to be minimally taken care of, and simply die unceremoniously while most of workforce busy competing to pay attention. Helps that cohort is part of the incredibly poor with high savings rate, i.e. they are expected to take care of themselves and it doesn't take much too for the state to take care of them - perks of old before rich is old don't have rich expectations. Overall PRC is still resourced to increase QoL among poor old vs west trying to sustain onerous but expected social nets for rich old. IMO housing will sort itself out if you consider reverse of 4:2:1 is 4 households / wealth transfers to the 1. Every married couple and their kids eventually has access to ~4-8+ housing units. Hence IMO even TFR will sort itself out once housing pressure / availability disspates by virtue demand decreasing due to less people. Of course transition can be very difficult/painful/messy, i.e. demand in T1/2/3 cities still going to be high, a lot of freed up housing is going to be rural, like all the abandoned villages in JP. Maybe remote work + cottage culture will finally pick up in PRC once most families inherit some rural land to chill on. TBH I can imagine PRC life being incredibly more relaxed once less people compete for resources. As for freedoms, depends on which kind. I think most will be satiated with increased material prosperity / fully automated luxury communism meme conveniences. There's plenty of Chinese diasphora in the west jaded with western political process, and I wager that trend with continue with how things are progressing. Plenty of international students with first hand experience become more pro CCP. Ultimately people are going to decide if they want freedom to talk shit about unresponsive governments that get nothing done or crusing along in their self driving cars enabled by surveillance state. And let's not pretend immigration driven demographic growth strategies are not bringing their share of social problems... in fact it's probably one of the largest sources of domestic instability being interrogated by such countries right now.

maxglute 2y ago

STEM is still "just" 1/4 of workforce. Another 1/2 is going to be in other tertiary or vocational including trades. The side benefit of STEM overcapacity is you can drive skilled labour costs down in highvalue/strategic sectors, and the flame outs can do other shit i.e. foreign doctors driving Ubers in the States. China will have STEMs who aren't "good enough" doing banal work too. Except you can get upskilled people to work low skilled jobs and not vice versa, i.e. US isn't going to get glut of humanity degrees to fill fabs. Will there be as many cheap workers as last couple decades pouring 100 years worth of US concrete in 3? No, hence why all the upfront build infra investment right now, while blue collar still somewhat plentiful and cheap. Meanwhile, tons of resources pouring into automation / humanoid robots, because at PRC scale, IMO can't really immigrate/migrant worker way out of issue. Not saying it's not possible, see meme of circle around Asia where 50% of humans live. There's likely still going to be a lot of accessible cheap bodies around if culture willing to tolerate it. The broader picture is big % (like 30%+) of PRC workforce has been (and will be until they die) bluntly... net drag. There were always 100s of millions of farming households (functionally a jobs program) and informal workers spinning wheels doing shit all. All the labourers and workers pouring concrete and building factories were only ever fraction of PRC workforce. PRC losing the fraction that doesn't do much and replacing it with a smaller fraction that does a lot, and when aggregate # of workers that does a lot is 2x-3x more than peers (vs past where peers had orders of magnitude more skilled than PRC), then that's much better net position for future when competing on high tech / high value. Another added benefit of not having 100s of millions of excess mouth to feed and fuel and future PRC demographics is also going to enable strategic autarky like US. IMO PRC "finite" still too much. There are a lot of benefits to where PRC demographics is trending within our lifetimes. Of course if they don't figure out TFR in 30-40 years things will get real bad in 60-70 years, but that's time frame too distant to extrapolate.

wordpad25 2y ago
such a shift in demographics will bring a lot of difficult societal problems that come with emerging Middle Class who will want more housing and more freedoms
- maxglute 2y ago
  Social problems mostly 4:2:1 depedency ratios, i.e. elder care. Hence PRC pouring a lot of resource into this sector, but TBH unless automation catches up, they're just going to follow JP model - old people are going to be minimally taken care of, and simply die unceremoniously while most of workforce busy competing to pay attention. Helps that cohort is part of the incredibly poor with high savings rate, i.e. they are expected to take care of themselves and it doesn't take much too for the state to take care of them - perks of old before rich is old don't have rich expectations. Overall PRC is still resourced to increase QoL among poor old vs west trying to sustain onerous but expected social nets for rich old. IMO housing will sort itself out if you consider reverse of 4:2:1 is 4 households / wealth transfers to the 1. Every married couple and their kids eventually has access to ~4-8+ housing units. Hence IMO even TFR will sort itself out once housing pressure / availability disspates by virtue demand decreasing due to less people. Of course transition can be very difficult/painful/messy, i.e. demand in T1/2/3 cities still going to be high, a lot of freed up housing is going to be rural, like all the abandoned villages in JP. Maybe remote work + cottage culture will finally pick up in PRC once most families inherit some rural land to chill on. TBH I can imagine PRC life being incredibly more relaxed once less people compete for resources. As for freedoms, depends on which kind. I think most will be satiated with increased material prosperity / fully automated luxury communism meme conveniences. There's plenty of Chinese diasphora in the west jaded with western political process, and I wager that trend with continue with how things are progressing. Plenty of international students with first hand experience become more pro CCP. Ultimately people are going to decide if they want freedom to talk shit about unresponsive governments that get nothing done or crusing along in their self driving cars enabled by surveillance state. And let's not pretend immigration driven demographic growth strategies are not bringing their share of social problems... in fact it's probably one of the largest sources of domestic instability being interrogated by such countries right now.