4 ms·

What is ironic, is that those with insurance probably will get a full payout for the entire value of their home. But those who decided to build out of fireproo

What is ironic, is that those with insurance probably will get a full payout for the entire value of their home. But those who decided to build out of fireproof materials and install a sprinkler system, now have an almost worthless home, since it's now located in a barren wasteland, and the insurance won't be paying out since your house wasn't burned down. There is an absolute incentive to make sure that if any disaster destroys the region, that you aren't the only one to survive.

pjc50 2y ago
How many of those actually survived? Must be some interesting photos of isolated houses among charcoal plains.
- londons_explore 2y ago
  Yes: https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/01/comedian-bill-haders-house-survives-96521023.jpg?w=1024 https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/01/comedi...
  - pjc50 2y ago
    Wow. Very sharp dividing line. But that image contains some suggestion that it wasn't all about the building materials - after all, the green hedges (leylandii?) have also survived. Is that the effect of external sprinklers?
leoedin 2y ago
I don't think that's really true. Most of the value of homes destroyed in LA was in the location, not the building. Insurance will pay out on the cost of reconstruction - but in a lot of cases that's probably 10% of the "value" of the home pre-fire. Equally, the land hasn't moved. If people wanted to live in the LA hills before the fires, they still will now. Certainly the prospect of a fire will reduce the value, but it won't make it zero.
- saurik 2y ago
  I think the point is that this might be true in the long term, but, in the short or even in the medium term, it doesn't at all seem strange to me that living in the LA hills is no longer attractive if the entire region is just a bunch of burned down houses.
  - danaris 2y ago
    That...is going to depend heavily on whether we are, collectively, somehow able to reduce the risk of fire there for future years. If, in the long term, the probability of having your house in the LA hills burn down over a given 5-year span approaches 1, the desirability of homes there is not just going to be down over the short or medium term.
aucisson_masque 2y ago
What fireproof material are you speaking about ? There are very little materials able to prevent a house from getting burned by wildfire. In my experience, unless you remove all the house opening and make the wall and roof out of concrete you are doomed because heat will find a way in and fire will take from the inside.
- londons_explore 2y ago
  For the LA fires, houses had to survive embers falling on their roofs for many hours, and intense radiant heat for only 10's of minutes. Tile roofs and brick walls survive both easily (standard european construction). Timber frame, plastic/wood on the outside, asphalt roof shingles, etc would obviously not survive. Which is why a few houses survived.
- ben_w 2y ago
  > unless you remove all the house opening and make the wall and roof out of concrete you are doomed I think you've answered your own question there. Concrete is cheap. My house is made from it. Also I have metal shutters on the outside of the windows. But also, from what I've seen, materials are not the primary cost of contstruction. If you took this plot of land, looks like 20 meters by 40 meters to me, the street view photo from before the fire looks like the building was 3 stories including the garage so let's say 10m tall: https://maps.app.goo.gl/XydopyQorcmgscPD8?g_st=com.google.maps.preview.copy https://maps.app.goo.gl/XydopyQorcmgscPD8?g_st=com.google.ma... 8000 cubic meters to fill the entire volume with solid concrete; I think concrete costs $80-$150 per cubic meter for a total of about $640k-$1.2M, while the pre-fire sale prices for that zip code were about $3.8M: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/90272/overview https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/90272/over...
  - aucisson_masque 2y ago
    Is your roof actually made of concrete ? It's very rare. Metal shutters is also uncommon, it's usually PVC. What country you live in ? Concrete is cheap but the steel used to reinforce it are not and concrete not reinforced is worth nothing so I don't know about your estimate.
Ferret7446 2y ago
If you had "decided to build out of fireproof materials and install a sprinkler system" then you would have paid significantly lower premiums on your insurance, and the home is not worthless unless you decide to sell it soon. The price drop might be a bonus due to the insane CA property taxes.

pjc50 2y ago

How many of those actually survived? Must be some interesting photos of isolated houses among charcoal plains.

londons_explore 2y ago
Yes: https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/01/comedian-bill-haders-house-survives-96521023.jpg?w=1024 https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/01/comedi...
- pjc50 2y ago
  Wow. Very sharp dividing line. But that image contains some suggestion that it wasn't all about the building materials - after all, the green hedges (leylandii?) have also survived. Is that the effect of external sprinklers?

leoedin 2y ago

I don't think that's really true. Most of the value of homes destroyed in LA was in the location, not the building. Insurance will pay out on the cost of reconstruction - but in a lot of cases that's probably 10% of the "value" of the home pre-fire. Equally, the land hasn't moved. If people wanted to live in the LA hills before the fires, they still will now. Certainly the prospect of a fire will reduce the value, but it won't make it zero.

saurik 2y ago
I think the point is that this might be true in the long term, but, in the short or even in the medium term, it doesn't at all seem strange to me that living in the LA hills is no longer attractive if the entire region is just a bunch of burned down houses.
- danaris 2y ago
  That...is going to depend heavily on whether we are, collectively, somehow able to reduce the risk of fire there for future years. If, in the long term, the probability of having your house in the LA hills burn down over a given 5-year span approaches 1, the desirability of homes there is not just going to be down over the short or medium term.

aucisson_masque 2y ago

What fireproof material are you speaking about ? There are very little materials able to prevent a house from getting burned by wildfire. In my experience, unless you remove all the house opening and make the wall and roof out of concrete you are doomed because heat will find a way in and fire will take from the inside.

londons_explore 2y ago
For the LA fires, houses had to survive embers falling on their roofs for many hours, and intense radiant heat for only 10's of minutes. Tile roofs and brick walls survive both easily (standard european construction). Timber frame, plastic/wood on the outside, asphalt roof shingles, etc would obviously not survive. Which is why a few houses survived.
ben_w 2y ago
> unless you remove all the house opening and make the wall and roof out of concrete you are doomed I think you've answered your own question there. Concrete is cheap. My house is made from it. Also I have metal shutters on the outside of the windows. But also, from what I've seen, materials are not the primary cost of contstruction. If you took this plot of land, looks like 20 meters by 40 meters to me, the street view photo from before the fire looks like the building was 3 stories including the garage so let's say 10m tall: https://maps.app.goo.gl/XydopyQorcmgscPD8?g_st=com.google.maps.preview.copy https://maps.app.goo.gl/XydopyQorcmgscPD8?g_st=com.google.ma... 8000 cubic meters to fill the entire volume with solid concrete; I think concrete costs $80-$150 per cubic meter for a total of about $640k-$1.2M, while the pre-fire sale prices for that zip code were about $3.8M: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/90272/overview https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/90272/over...
- aucisson_masque 2y ago
  Is your roof actually made of concrete ? It's very rare. Metal shutters is also uncommon, it's usually PVC. What country you live in ? Concrete is cheap but the steel used to reinforce it are not and concrete not reinforced is worth nothing so I don't know about your estimate.

Ferret7446 2y ago

If you had "decided to build out of fireproof materials and install a sprinkler system" then you would have paid significantly lower premiums on your insurance, and the home is not worthless unless you decide to sell it soon. The price drop might be a bonus due to the insane CA property taxes.