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60 years ago, a super shitty car company from Japan called Toyota starting importing their pieces of shit to us. They were small, weird, with a poorly translate

by genter 2y ago

60 years ago, a super shitty car company from Japan called Toyota starting importing their pieces of shit to us. They were small, weird, with a poorly translated manual. And they were shit. And Toyota kept improving, and learning from their mistakes, and got to know the US market better. And now they are one of the largest corporations on Earth. This is why when I see a $1 stepper motor on AliExpress, or a YouTube review of some cheap Vevor tool, or a shipping container of electric miniexcavators, I realize this is China being a teenager, learning how to be an adult. And they are a lot bigger than Japan, and are going to have a bigger impact than Toyota, or Sony, or Mitsubishi. And this is why I hate Trump. Because he is completely right about how much China is gaining on us, but he has no understanding of how or why, and is therefore doing absolutely nothing to actually help us maintain our manufacturing power.

UncleOxidant 2y ago
And a lot of the things he's doing are going to make things worse for us.
- croes 2y ago
  Especially in the long run after his presidency
bozhark 2y ago
If only the leadership lead
CraigJPerry 2y ago
Does China not end up running headlong into the problem of demographics? It’s a structural problem that the US isn’t really facing. US: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_S... China: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China That’s like a 1/3rd reduction in workforce.
- vkou 2y ago
  Given recent trends, the US will run headlong into the problem of political collapse long before China runs into a demographic collapse.
  - thworp 2y ago
    That problem is also ever-present for China. States like China never look like they are about to collapse until they do.
    - TeMPOraL 2y ago
      That's true of all states. The collapse only sets in when enough people start believing it's about to happen - and once this threshold is crossed, it happens in an instant.
- maxglute 2y ago
  Both JP and SKR increased gdp/productivity ~10-20x when they had <2 TFR by increasing % of workforce to skilled/tertiary (advanced economies have skilled workforce approaching 70/80%). PRC is at ~20% while adding more skilled workforce than roughly OECD combined. Structurally China will add more just STEM in next 20 years than US projected to increase population, i.e. if every US newborn and immigrant (assuming current levels) are STEM, US will merely match PRC STEM generation. PRC also adding 80m other tertiary or vocational skilled ontop of that. For strategic competition, the structural demographic trend you should compare is PRC peaking at roughly 2x-3x US skilled workers who will be in workforce for 50+ years, i.e. greatest high skill demographic divident in recorded history. Meanwhile they'll be shedding 100s of millions of low productive workers. Imagine PRC workforce profile adding 5 japans and losing 3 nigerias. Another caveat being about 200m of population decline will be inefficient farming households that can be effectively replaced with 20m modern ag workers. Or 600m low productive (bottom 2 quantiles who are undereducated / old / left behind by modernization) contributes to like 5% of GDP, i.e. their consumption / productivity is comparable to a few 10s million of high value workers. Then consider PRC is also adding more industrial robotics / automation than RoW combined. The question is whether US can compete with PRC with multiple times more skilled talent and larger industrial base than they have now, both increasing at rates that US is structurally unable to close gap on for decades short of AGI / von neumann machine hailmary (which granted is a real possiblity, but then we're also in a world where PRC is spitting out incubated humans).
nubinetwork 2y ago
> toyota And yet the latest supra's are just badge engineered BMW's, and a lot of their cars are being recalled for engine problems, or because the wheels fall off...
- inemesitaffia 2y ago
  All Supra's have been BMW's
  - nubinetwork 2y ago
    Not until 2019.
  - MattBearman 2y ago
    Only the mk 5 supra (2020 onwards) has anything to do with BMW. Up until the mk 4 stopped production in 02 there had been 25ish years of purely Toyota Supra/Celica Supra
metalman 2y ago
Nail, on head. And as a serial entrepenuer working with metal and machinery, I can promise you that western policy is very much built around protecting the bloated, monopolys and du-opoloys from inovation and competition. I built a thumb for my backhoe, from salvaged steel and ramdom used hydraulics, and it works great, I can grab and postion big rocks, and hold a tree at a convienient hight for bucking it up. Total cash cost, under $400, to by from the dealer would be close to $10000, close to which side of 10000?, not sure..... Full spanky new machine, ha!, grown men get moon eyed when they look at that old machine with its bucket and thumb. The real cost of wildly overpriced equipment is that it is a significant factor in rural devitalisation, with small land owners and farmers unable to earn or create what is nessescary for raising a family. And we are then loosing the skills needed to do many of the things that are fundamental to maintaining and building basic infrastructure in smaller jobs at acceptable prices, leading to further decline. The realy realy uggly part of this process, is that farm boys, having NO possibilty of staying in the country, signed up, and came back physicaly and/or damaged themselves, and now, for the most part, there is no remaing resevoir of humans, that are inclined to do things in trenches, of whatever variety. Its not called the military, industrial, complex, for nothing.
whamlastxmas 2y ago
Common sense tells me that it seems unrealistic for America to compete in manufacturing with China when have significantly higher costs of living, many fewer people, and a much more educated workforce who is less willing to screw on doll heads for 16 hours a day. Tariffs seem like a way to help American manufacturing compete given all of that

by genter 2y ago

UncleOxidant 2y ago

And a lot of the things he's doing are going to make things worse for us.

croes 2y ago
Especially in the long run after his presidency

bozhark 2y ago

If only the leadership lead

CraigJPerry 2y ago

Does China not end up running headlong into the problem of demographics? It’s a structural problem that the US isn’t really facing. US: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_S... China: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China That’s like a 1/3rd reduction in workforce.

vkou 2y ago
Given recent trends, the US will run headlong into the problem of political collapse long before China runs into a demographic collapse.
- thworp 2y ago
  That problem is also ever-present for China. States like China never look like they are about to collapse until they do.
  - TeMPOraL 2y ago
    That's true of all states. The collapse only sets in when enough people start believing it's about to happen - and once this threshold is crossed, it happens in an instant.
maxglute 2y ago
Both JP and SKR increased gdp/productivity ~10-20x when they had <2 TFR by increasing % of workforce to skilled/tertiary (advanced economies have skilled workforce approaching 70/80%). PRC is at ~20% while adding more skilled workforce than roughly OECD combined. Structurally China will add more just STEM in next 20 years than US projected to increase population, i.e. if every US newborn and immigrant (assuming current levels) are STEM, US will merely match PRC STEM generation. PRC also adding 80m other tertiary or vocational skilled ontop of that. For strategic competition, the structural demographic trend you should compare is PRC peaking at roughly 2x-3x US skilled workers who will be in workforce for 50+ years, i.e. greatest high skill demographic divident in recorded history. Meanwhile they'll be shedding 100s of millions of low productive workers. Imagine PRC workforce profile adding 5 japans and losing 3 nigerias. Another caveat being about 200m of population decline will be inefficient farming households that can be effectively replaced with 20m modern ag workers. Or 600m low productive (bottom 2 quantiles who are undereducated / old / left behind by modernization) contributes to like 5% of GDP, i.e. their consumption / productivity is comparable to a few 10s million of high value workers. Then consider PRC is also adding more industrial robotics / automation than RoW combined. The question is whether US can compete with PRC with multiple times more skilled talent and larger industrial base than they have now, both increasing at rates that US is structurally unable to close gap on for decades short of AGI / von neumann machine hailmary (which granted is a real possiblity, but then we're also in a world where PRC is spitting out incubated humans).

nubinetwork 2y ago

> toyota And yet the latest supra's are just badge engineered BMW's, and a lot of their cars are being recalled for engine problems, or because the wheels fall off...

inemesitaffia 2y ago
All Supra's have been BMW's
- nubinetwork 2y ago
  Not until 2019.
- MattBearman 2y ago
  Only the mk 5 supra (2020 onwards) has anything to do with BMW. Up until the mk 4 stopped production in 02 there had been 25ish years of purely Toyota Supra/Celica Supra

metalman 2y ago

Nail, on head. And as a serial entrepenuer working with metal and machinery, I can promise you that western policy is very much built around protecting the bloated, monopolys and du-opoloys from inovation and competition. I built a thumb for my backhoe, from salvaged steel and ramdom used hydraulics, and it works great, I can grab and postion big rocks, and hold a tree at a convienient hight for bucking it up. Total cash cost, under $400, to by from the dealer would be close to $10000, close to which side of 10000?, not sure..... Full spanky new machine, ha!, grown men get moon eyed when they look at that old machine with its bucket and thumb. The real cost of wildly overpriced equipment is that it is a significant factor in rural devitalisation, with small land owners and farmers unable to earn or create what is nessescary for raising a family. And we are then loosing the skills needed to do many of the things that are fundamental to maintaining and building basic infrastructure in smaller jobs at acceptable prices, leading to further decline. The realy realy uggly part of this process, is that farm boys, having NO possibilty of staying in the country, signed up, and came back physicaly and/or damaged themselves, and now, for the most part, there is no remaing resevoir of humans, that are inclined to do things in trenches, of whatever variety. Its not called the military, industrial, complex, for nothing.

whamlastxmas 2y ago

Common sense tells me that it seems unrealistic for America to compete in manufacturing with China when have significantly higher costs of living, many fewer people, and a much more educated workforce who is less willing to screw on doll heads for 16 hours a day. Tariffs seem like a way to help American manufacturing compete given all of that