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Nothing special happens at 15 years expenses in savings. It's way past what you need for security, but not nearly enough to retire on (that's more like 25x). It

Nothing special happens at 15 years expenses in savings. It's way past what you need for security, but not nearly enough to retire on (that's more like 25x). It's way past what you need to rent, but it won't buy you a home you want in the region where you earned it, unless in combination with a PITI that commits you to earning at the same level for another 30 years. It could set you up nicely in a different region, but that would probably have to be combined with a career change, or else you're gambling that you can sustain full-remote employment. If you're telling yourself to hang on until you reach this point... just realize that you may reach it and find you're still stuck.

loeg 2y ago
This doesn't seem responsive to GP's comment. GP didn't discuss 15 years' expenses.
- closeparen 2y ago
  >but 8-15 years of pay saved provides lots of optionality. I guess that depends how you're defining "pay" in relation to taxes and deductions.
  - loeg 2y ago
    It’s income, as opposed to expenses.
dangus 2y ago
Throw 15 years of savings into the stock market and it will almost certainly double in value in 7 years. It is most certainly transformative if you pretend you don’t have it for what amounts to a pretty short period of time.
- closeparen 2y ago
  If you're saying "I'll just hang on in this job I don't like until I'm in this 8-15 range" you may find that it's not reasonable to make any big life changes from that position either; you still need to "pretend you don't have it" and keep going for another while.
  - dangus 2y ago
    Holding on to your job you don’t like for not that long to retire easily is an amazing privilege that most don’t have.
- grumpy_coder 2y ago
  "it will almost certainly double in value in 7 years" implies 10% is an almost certain long term return. It is not. 10 years is a common rule of thumb to double your investment, this is a good guess since after adjusting for inflation, the real return of S&P 500 is about 6.8%. Which is about 10.5 years to double your investment. (give or take S&P 500 being one of the best returns you will find historically)
  - dangus 2y ago
    10% is almost certain but yes I wasn’t adjusting for inflation.

loeg 2y ago

This doesn't seem responsive to GP's comment. GP didn't discuss 15 years' expenses.

closeparen 2y ago
>but 8-15 years of pay saved provides lots of optionality. I guess that depends how you're defining "pay" in relation to taxes and deductions.
- loeg 2y ago
  It’s income, as opposed to expenses.

dangus 2y ago

Throw 15 years of savings into the stock market and it will almost certainly double in value in 7 years. It is most certainly transformative if you pretend you don’t have it for what amounts to a pretty short period of time.

closeparen 2y ago
If you're saying "I'll just hang on in this job I don't like until I'm in this 8-15 range" you may find that it's not reasonable to make any big life changes from that position either; you still need to "pretend you don't have it" and keep going for another while.
- dangus 2y ago
  Holding on to your job you don’t like for not that long to retire easily is an amazing privilege that most don’t have.
grumpy_coder 2y ago
"it will almost certainly double in value in 7 years" implies 10% is an almost certain long term return. It is not. 10 years is a common rule of thumb to double your investment, this is a good guess since after adjusting for inflation, the real return of S&P 500 is about 6.8%. Which is about 10.5 years to double your investment. (give or take S&P 500 being one of the best returns you will find historically)
- dangus 2y ago
  10% is almost certain but yes I wasn’t adjusting for inflation.