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I have made exactly one actual bet for money. In December 2020 I bet that Donald Trump had lost the US Presidential Election, which he had done the previous mo

I have made exactly one actual bet for money. In December 2020 I bet that Donald Trump had lost the US Presidential Election, which he had done the previous month. Ordinarily of course you can't make bets like that because nobody wants the other side of the bet†, but there were plenty of takers for "No, Donald Trump actually won" so I got paid off, it wasn't a huge profit but it was meaningful. † There are two ways you could be betting, sometimes you can bet "against the house". A company is trying to adjust the odds such that whoever wins, they end up benefiting, it can be tricky to do this and requires expertise so... the other way is you're betting against other punters like you, which works like the buy/sell orders on a stock exchange and the house just gets a percentage no matter what happens. Political gambling tends to be on the latter basis. [Edited: I originally wrote December 2021, but obviously it's December 2020 when I made that bet, he lost in November 2020, not November 2021]

ben_w 2y ago
I was tempted to do likewise, but then someone pointed out the risk there isn't that we might be incorrect about a very well publicised event that had already happened, it's that the other side has a successful coup to make their fantasy into a reality. The odds didn't look so friendly when I considered them as a chance of a coup. And indeed, then Jan 6 happened, and people are sill here on this website arguing that what specifically happened on that day doesn't meet their idea of an attempted coup.
- tialaramex 2y ago
  Sure, obviously it's a risky bet if a coup would make a difference. A coup didn't make a difference, Trump doesn't win an election by staging a coup. I deliberately didn't pick any of the correlated outcomes like Biden becomes President, because it's possible for them to not happen despite Trump losing. Now, if you're an American that doesn't help, the newly installed regime after a coup can just insist facts aren't true, so the bet is still unwise, but I'm not an American.
rcxdude 2y ago
This is a common issue in prediction markets: they tend to look nonsensical at the extremes, because if you're betting on 'sure outcome', then the main issues are a) counterparty risk, i.e. the risk that the payout is not awarded correctly, and b) opportunity costs, as the margins can be slim enough and the payout date far enough away that you've got better things you could do with your money.

ben_w 2y ago

I was tempted to do likewise, but then someone pointed out the risk there isn't that we might be incorrect about a very well publicised event that had already happened, it's that the other side has a successful coup to make their fantasy into a reality. The odds didn't look so friendly when I considered them as a chance of a coup. And indeed, then Jan 6 happened, and people are sill here on this website arguing that what specifically happened on that day doesn't meet their idea of an attempted coup.

tialaramex 2y ago
Sure, obviously it's a risky bet if a coup would make a difference. A coup didn't make a difference, Trump doesn't win an election by staging a coup. I deliberately didn't pick any of the correlated outcomes like Biden becomes President, because it's possible for them to not happen despite Trump losing. Now, if you're an American that doesn't help, the newly installed regime after a coup can just insist facts aren't true, so the bet is still unwise, but I'm not an American.

rcxdude 2y ago

This is a common issue in prediction markets: they tend to look nonsensical at the extremes, because if you're betting on 'sure outcome', then the main issues are a) counterparty risk, i.e. the risk that the payout is not awarded correctly, and b) opportunity costs, as the margins can be slim enough and the payout date far enough away that you've got better things you could do with your money.