4 ms·

>Will it be more difficult to sell software or SaaS across the border between Canada and the US? That's one intended outcome. OTOH, people in both countries m

>Will it be more difficult to sell software or SaaS across the border between Canada and the US? That's one intended outcome. OTOH, people in both countries may be financially hosed bad enough, that way more people will never be able to afford things other than bare necessities for the rest of their lives anyway.

bradac56 2y ago
O yes fearmongering always helps. Back under your bridge troll.
- theyknowitsxmas 2y ago
  But it's true. This doesn't affect winning founders on here.
- scarface_74 2y ago
  So exactly how is it a good thing to add costs to everything you buy?
- hello_moto 2y ago
  Sudden tariff on stable trade agreement that has been tweaked to ensure both side won is not fear mongering. Fear mongering is what Trump does to Americans: take out Oil, the thing that Americans have never ending hunger for because US infra and public transport suck ass, then the trade between US and Canada is on par. Fear mongering is 19kg of fentanyl (or less than 1% of US fentanyl) moving from Canada to US while fentanyl by and large is US problem.
owenversteeg 2y ago
Wow, the doom is off the charts here. Just to inject some sanity into this discussion, these tariffs would not even bring the US to the level of some higher-tariff countries such as the notoriously impoverished United Kingdom or South Korea. 2022 tariff revenue was about 100B and the current Trump tariffs as of today stand around 90B/year depending who you ask, so this takes us to, very roughly, a weighted mean of 2.8%. Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS?type=shaded https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS?ty... Some countries for reference: India: 11.5% South Korea: 8.6% Mexico: 4.8% China: 3.1% UK: 3.1% Israel: 2.8% Norway: 2.3% New Zealand: 1.7% US: 1.5% Canada: 1.4% EU: 1.3% Australia: 1.0%
- qwytw 2y ago
  > Trump tariffs as of today stand around 90B/year Of course total revenue will decrease. Possibly very significantly so only a fraction of that estimated will be collected. > a weighted mean of 2.8%. Can you explain where are you getting that? I'm not saying it's false but ~45% of all use imports come from China, Canada and Mexico. If they are all taxes at 10%/25% the mean would be significantly above 2.8%?
  - owenversteeg 2y ago
    Are you aware that the US did this before (weighted mean tariffs >doubled in Trump’s first term) and it worked well enough that the Biden administration kept the tariffs and even increased some? You may want to take a look at a graph of US imports by year or tariff revenue by year to see your “very significant” decrease in revenue (hint: it kept going up…) I don’t claim that it is entirely independent of tariff rates forever, but it is certainly nowhere near as dependent as people imagine. >Can you explain where are you getting that? Sure, there are various organizations that study US tax policy and they generally publish estimates of revenue generated by a proposed tariff. I took a look at a few and found estimates around 90-100B first year. The reason that it’s not simple to calculate these tariffs is because tariff law is complex and real world behavior shifts. With the last Trump tariffs there was a huge shift out of China for several industries. Companies also lie about the value of things: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/did-the-us-bilateral-goods-deficit-with-china-increase-or-decrease-during-the-us-china-trade-conflict-20210621.html https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/did-...
    - qwytw 2y ago
      > Are you aware that the US did this before No because it wasn't even remotely the same. In 2022 the average tariff on Chinese imports was 2.86%, 0.01% on Mexican goods and 0.12% on Canadian goods. Besides that the first term tariffs were targeted and not applied universally to all imports. That "great/fantastic deal"(USMCA) that Trump "negotiated" back in his first term kept most trade with Mexico and Canada more or less tariff free. TBH it's hard to tell if you're being purposefully obtuse or not... > The reason that it’s not simple to calculate Yes and while I very well might be wrong I just don't see how is the 2.8% figure arithmetically possible. e.g. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/effects-of-us-tariff-policy-changes-will-vary-sharply-across-sectors-countries-09-01-2025 https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/eff... had different calculations (of course it assumes 60% on China and 10% on all other countries besides Mexico/Canada so it would be well below 21% but not 2.8% either).

bradac56 2y ago

O yes fearmongering always helps. Back under your bridge troll.

theyknowitsxmas 2y ago
But it's true. This doesn't affect winning founders on here.
scarface_74 2y ago
So exactly how is it a good thing to add costs to everything you buy?
hello_moto 2y ago
Sudden tariff on stable trade agreement that has been tweaked to ensure both side won is not fear mongering. Fear mongering is what Trump does to Americans: take out Oil, the thing that Americans have never ending hunger for because US infra and public transport suck ass, then the trade between US and Canada is on par. Fear mongering is 19kg of fentanyl (or less than 1% of US fentanyl) moving from Canada to US while fentanyl by and large is US problem.

owenversteeg 2y ago

Wow, the doom is off the charts here. Just to inject some sanity into this discussion, these tariffs would not even bring the US to the level of some higher-tariff countries such as the notoriously impoverished United Kingdom or South Korea. 2022 tariff revenue was about 100B and the current Trump tariffs as of today stand around 90B/year depending who you ask, so this takes us to, very roughly, a weighted mean of 2.8%. Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS?type=shaded https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS?ty... Some countries for reference: India: 11.5% South Korea: 8.6% Mexico: 4.8% China: 3.1% UK: 3.1% Israel: 2.8% Norway: 2.3% New Zealand: 1.7% US: 1.5% Canada: 1.4% EU: 1.3% Australia: 1.0%

qwytw 2y ago
> Trump tariffs as of today stand around 90B/year Of course total revenue will decrease. Possibly very significantly so only a fraction of that estimated will be collected. > a weighted mean of 2.8%. Can you explain where are you getting that? I'm not saying it's false but ~45% of all use imports come from China, Canada and Mexico. If they are all taxes at 10%/25% the mean would be significantly above 2.8%?
- owenversteeg 2y ago
  Are you aware that the US did this before (weighted mean tariffs >doubled in Trump’s first term) and it worked well enough that the Biden administration kept the tariffs and even increased some? You may want to take a look at a graph of US imports by year or tariff revenue by year to see your “very significant” decrease in revenue (hint: it kept going up…) I don’t claim that it is entirely independent of tariff rates forever, but it is certainly nowhere near as dependent as people imagine. >Can you explain where are you getting that? Sure, there are various organizations that study US tax policy and they generally publish estimates of revenue generated by a proposed tariff. I took a look at a few and found estimates around 90-100B first year. The reason that it’s not simple to calculate these tariffs is because tariff law is complex and real world behavior shifts. With the last Trump tariffs there was a huge shift out of China for several industries. Companies also lie about the value of things: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/did-the-us-bilateral-goods-deficit-with-china-increase-or-decrease-during-the-us-china-trade-conflict-20210621.html https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/did-...
  - qwytw 2y ago
    > Are you aware that the US did this before No because it wasn't even remotely the same. In 2022 the average tariff on Chinese imports was 2.86%, 0.01% on Mexican goods and 0.12% on Canadian goods. Besides that the first term tariffs were targeted and not applied universally to all imports. That "great/fantastic deal"(USMCA) that Trump "negotiated" back in his first term kept most trade with Mexico and Canada more or less tariff free. TBH it's hard to tell if you're being purposefully obtuse or not... > The reason that it’s not simple to calculate Yes and while I very well might be wrong I just don't see how is the 2.8% figure arithmetically possible. e.g. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/effects-of-us-tariff-policy-changes-will-vary-sharply-across-sectors-countries-09-01-2025 https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/eff... had different calculations (of course it assumes 60% on China and 10% on all other countries besides Mexico/Canada so it would be well below 21% but not 2.8% either).