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I thought I recognized this username, you're the same guy who was asking whether Europe could build their own AI infrastructure a few days back [1]. You clearl

I thought I recognized this username, you're the same guy who was asking whether Europe could build their own AI infrastructure a few days back [1]. You clearly have some kind of bone to pick with how Europe has chosen to handle things here. No, Norway is not "at the mercy" of the USA because it has chosen to voluntarily conduct business with US companies, any more than the USA is "at the mercy" of, say, China. That's a ridiculous way to frame free trade between friendly, or even not-so-friendly, nations. If - and this is a big if - Norwegian-US relations degraded to the point that asset freezing was on the table, then yes, Norway would likely choose to divest those direct holdings somehow. The most likely way they would try to do this is by looking into some kind of proxy situation whereby a firm in another, friendlier company to the US directly holds the basket, and they hold a big stake in that company. Capitalism is more clever than you are. "Okay, but what if the US freezes investments in all other countries that trade with Norway in that situation?" That leads to much worse outcomes for everyone involved, the US included. Everyone becomes poorer when they are unable to trade, that's econ 101. How far down this rabbit hole do we have to go? No trading with other countries which trade with other countries which trade with Norway? Come on. Even North Korea trades with other countries. What crimes has Norway committed in the first place to lead to this nightmare, anyway? Eating fish? Preferring iPhones to Androids? Offering a 2 year citizenship track to those rogues, the Finns? If you want to argue that Europe is doing dumb things with its money, or its investments, sure. By all means. Don't insinuate there is a looming embargo with the US because you're mad that Vanguard is outperforming MSCI, though. Focus on doing the things that make you rich - like thinking clearly, and being friendly to those who want to do business with you. Hey, it's working for Norway. [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42875716 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42875716

ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
proxy situation whereby a firm in another, friendlier company to the US directly holds the basket You make it sound like shares in companies are anonymous objects like pieces of gold. But that is not the case. The data about who "owns" shares in US companies is stored digitally in the US. Similar situation with the Dollar. That's why Russia can't just sell their Dollars to other countries. What crimes has Norway committed I'm not saying there are crimes committed. But it looks like Europe is losing the ability to produce stuff of value. Because it is missing out on technology. And the US might not want to send stuff to Europe when Europe has nothing to send back.
- hiAndrewQuinn 2y ago
  The data about who "owns" shares in US companies is stored digitally in the US. The holding company in the other country holds the shares. They are in fact the ones who own the stock. I see no contradiction here. Similar situation with the Dollar. That's why Russia can't just sell their Dollars to other countries. At what price? I assume this is referring to the Moscow exchange deciding to shut down its own dollar trading, which is (1) self imposed and (2) very different from what you just said, because Russian holders can certainly still trade US dollars directly with each other. I'm nearly positive a buyer exists who would be willing to trade at, say, 1 US dollar per 0.1 Chinese yuan, even if it meant they had to drive a truck into and out of Anatolia to move the physical bills. China and Russia are trade partners, but s/China/India, Kazakhstan, wherever you want - the point remains the same. Indeed, if Russian citizens are not rushing to sell their dollars for whatever they can get them for, it must be because they foresee some future where they might have actual value, which seems at odds with the claim that Russia is permanently and magically banned from ever using their US dollars again. [T]he US might not want to send stuff to Europe when Europe has nothing to send back. Yes, that's how free trade works. Congratulations. Yes, if you don't have anything your partner wants the trade won't taken, and you'll have to make do on your own. This seems extremely contrived. First, you're imagining US-Europe trade slows to a trickle. Second, you're imagining that not one single Euro country decides to reverse course on their bad economic choices when it notices this. Third, you're imagining that Norway is still holding onto their enormous US assets in this situation instead of liquidating them as soon as they see people riding the horse and buggy to work again.
  - ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
    The holding company in the other country holds the shares. Right now Norway "holds" them. Aka there are database entries somewhere in the US, stating that Norway "holds" them. And if their shares get frozen, they can't "move" them to the company in the other country. The US just won't update those database entries.

ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago

proxy situation whereby a firm in another, friendlier company to the US directly holds the basket You make it sound like shares in companies are anonymous objects like pieces of gold. But that is not the case. The data about who "owns" shares in US companies is stored digitally in the US. Similar situation with the Dollar. That's why Russia can't just sell their Dollars to other countries. What crimes has Norway committed I'm not saying there are crimes committed. But it looks like Europe is losing the ability to produce stuff of value. Because it is missing out on technology. And the US might not want to send stuff to Europe when Europe has nothing to send back.

hiAndrewQuinn 2y ago
The data about who "owns" shares in US companies is stored digitally in the US. The holding company in the other country holds the shares. They are in fact the ones who own the stock. I see no contradiction here. Similar situation with the Dollar. That's why Russia can't just sell their Dollars to other countries. At what price? I assume this is referring to the Moscow exchange deciding to shut down its own dollar trading, which is (1) self imposed and (2) very different from what you just said, because Russian holders can certainly still trade US dollars directly with each other. I'm nearly positive a buyer exists who would be willing to trade at, say, 1 US dollar per 0.1 Chinese yuan, even if it meant they had to drive a truck into and out of Anatolia to move the physical bills. China and Russia are trade partners, but s/China/India, Kazakhstan, wherever you want - the point remains the same. Indeed, if Russian citizens are not rushing to sell their dollars for whatever they can get them for, it must be because they foresee some future where they might have actual value, which seems at odds with the claim that Russia is permanently and magically banned from ever using their US dollars again. [T]he US might not want to send stuff to Europe when Europe has nothing to send back. Yes, that's how free trade works. Congratulations. Yes, if you don't have anything your partner wants the trade won't taken, and you'll have to make do on your own. This seems extremely contrived. First, you're imagining US-Europe trade slows to a trickle. Second, you're imagining that not one single Euro country decides to reverse course on their bad economic choices when it notices this. Third, you're imagining that Norway is still holding onto their enormous US assets in this situation instead of liquidating them as soon as they see people riding the horse and buggy to work again.
- ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
  The holding company in the other country holds the shares. Right now Norway "holds" them. Aka there are database entries somewhere in the US, stating that Norway "holds" them. And if their shares get frozen, they can't "move" them to the company in the other country. The US just won't update those database entries.