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There will be a crash as with any hype cycle But this is normal. A new thing is discovered, the market runs lots of tests to discover where it works / doesn’t,

There will be a crash as with any hype cycle But this is normal. A new thing is discovered, the market runs lots of tests to discover where it works / doesn’t, there’s a crash, valid use cases are found / scaled and the market matures. Y’all surely lived thru the mobile app hype cycle, where every startup was “uber for x”. The amount of money being spent today pales in comparison to the long term money on even one use case that scales. It’s a good bet if you are a VC.

ryandrake 2y ago
It's a weird cycle though where the order of everything is messed up. The normal tech innovation model is: 1. User problem identified, 2. Technology advancement achieved, 3. Application built to solve problem With AI, it's turned into: 1. Technology advancement achieved, 2. Applications haphazardly being built to do anything with Technology, 3. Frantic search for users who might want to use applications. I don't know how the industry thinks they're going to make any money out of the new model.
- contravariant 2y ago
  I mean the obvious solution is to just manufacture more problems. I wish I could be certain that we're not doing that already.
  - gtirloni 2y ago
    In this case, I wouldn't attribute malice to incompetence.
  - johnnyanmac 2y ago
    we most certainly are with this subscription era of software. No one had an issue with buying Office or Photoshop or any other product that has no business needing to do monthly update cycles being a "buy once, own until you wanna upgrade". Except executives who wanted to siphon more money out of their products.
- teeray 2y ago
  > With AI, it's turned into: 1. Technology advancement achieved, 2. Applications haphazardly being built to do anything with Technology, 3. Frantic search for users who might want to use applications. No, it’s always been 1) Utter the current password in your pitch deck to unlock investor dollars. Recently it’s “AI” and “LLM,” but previously it was “Blockchain,” “Big Data,” etc.
- cornel_io 2y ago
  Another view is that the Internet exactly matched this model, and that it's much closer to the norm than not: the Internet became available to normal people in the mid-to-late 90s, depending on where you were, but all that was on the web was dumb personal websites (1). In the late 90s bubble, startups seemed pretty crazy, slapping "...but on the Internet" onto basically any idea and raising money off of it (2), basically what's happening with "...but with AI" today. Most failed to find a market because too few people were using the Internet for everything and the frantic search for users failed (3). But just as the conservative old-school business people were laughing and patting themselves on the back post-bubble over how stupid all the dotcoms were for thinking they could monetize eyeballs, Google emerges, and 20 years later tech companies drive the stock market rather than following it. Don't dismiss a technology just because the birthing spasms look ugly, it takes some time for markets to develop and for products to settle into niches. At the start a lot of that is due to people not being comfortable, tech sucking, and the market shifting too quickly to precisely target, but that can all change pretty fast.
johnnyanmac 2y ago
I just wish the workers didn't have to suffer everytime some CEOs decide to experiment with humanity and stakeholders overhype things.

ryandrake 2y ago

It's a weird cycle though where the order of everything is messed up. The normal tech innovation model is: 1. User problem identified, 2. Technology advancement achieved, 3. Application built to solve problem With AI, it's turned into: 1. Technology advancement achieved, 2. Applications haphazardly being built to do anything with Technology, 3. Frantic search for users who might want to use applications. I don't know how the industry thinks they're going to make any money out of the new model.

contravariant 2y ago
I mean the obvious solution is to just manufacture more problems. I wish I could be certain that we're not doing that already.
- gtirloni 2y ago
  In this case, I wouldn't attribute malice to incompetence.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  we most certainly are with this subscription era of software. No one had an issue with buying Office or Photoshop or any other product that has no business needing to do monthly update cycles being a "buy once, own until you wanna upgrade". Except executives who wanted to siphon more money out of their products.
teeray 2y ago
> With AI, it's turned into: 1. Technology advancement achieved, 2. Applications haphazardly being built to do anything with Technology, 3. Frantic search for users who might want to use applications. No, it’s always been 1) Utter the current password in your pitch deck to unlock investor dollars. Recently it’s “AI” and “LLM,” but previously it was “Blockchain,” “Big Data,” etc.
cornel_io 2y ago
Another view is that the Internet exactly matched this model, and that it's much closer to the norm than not: the Internet became available to normal people in the mid-to-late 90s, depending on where you were, but all that was on the web was dumb personal websites (1). In the late 90s bubble, startups seemed pretty crazy, slapping "...but on the Internet" onto basically any idea and raising money off of it (2), basically what's happening with "...but with AI" today. Most failed to find a market because too few people were using the Internet for everything and the frantic search for users failed (3). But just as the conservative old-school business people were laughing and patting themselves on the back post-bubble over how stupid all the dotcoms were for thinking they could monetize eyeballs, Google emerges, and 20 years later tech companies drive the stock market rather than following it. Don't dismiss a technology just because the birthing spasms look ugly, it takes some time for markets to develop and for products to settle into niches. At the start a lot of that is due to people not being comfortable, tech sucking, and the market shifting too quickly to precisely target, but that can all change pretty fast.

johnnyanmac 2y ago

I just wish the workers didn't have to suffer everytime some CEOs decide to experiment with humanity and stakeholders overhype things.