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So let me get this right, solar panels on the roof, heat pumps, better fridges, and better insulation among other things are a crisis that will lead, in compari

by quink 2y ago

So let me get this right, solar panels on the roof, heat pumps, better fridges, and better insulation among other things are a crisis that will lead, in comparison, to the downfall of Western civilisation? Jeez, I better randomly turn on a resistive space heater in the middle of summer when I’m not home so we can all live better lives somehow. Do you think I should randomly flail my arms about in the hope it’ll somehow make more dividends for my bank of choice? Just want to double-check.

roenxi 2y ago
> So let me get this right, solar panels on the roof, heat pumps, better fridges, and better insulation among other things are a crisis that will lead, in comparison, to the downfall of Western civilisation? Well the data does seem to incline in that direction. Particularly the UK, as far as I can tell it is impossible to be both intellectually honest and believe that a 33% (!) reduction in per capita energy is good for people's living standards. Someone'd have to be wilfully ignorant of Jevons' paradox, the only way to get that drop off is some sort of squeeze in their ability to access energy which isn't fun to live through. I feel for the poor who are being forced to live with that and be told that they're better off and shouldn't believe their lying eyes. It also neatly explains a lot of the political trends the UK has undergone in the last decade like the high debt level and general dissatisfaction with the leadership.
- quink 2y ago
  Ah yes, the activity of “accessing energy”, the very relatable and not at all abstract real activity that we fellow humans perform multiple times a day. And here I thought we did “normal” things like “switch on the light” and notice that an LED still works just as well as an incandescent. Or some decide to turn on the dishwasher instead of doing the dishes by hand, which does it far more efficiently. Just wondering, since you seem to know, how do I make the money directly come out of the wall? Do I need to turn the crappy old five space heaters all to setting three to get all the money? Or should I just use the reverse cycle AC at a comfortable temperature like a normal person? Also, you’re calling the US’ economic success since 1970 a failure, since that also saw a drop in per capital use of 33%, so I’ll happily trade you all the money you made since 1970 for a pile of wooden logs, seems like that’d be a great deal for you, eh?
  - roenxi 2y ago
    > Or some decide to turn on the dishwasher instead of doing the dishes by hand, which does it far more efficiently. That would increase measured energy consumption per capita. > Also, you’re calling the US’ economic success since 1970 a failure They've gone from the world's leading hegemon to arguably 2nd largest economy vs China which is now the world's industrial superpower. And indeed there are a lot of notable turns for the worse [0] in the US that started coming up from the 1970s. I do think there is a case to be made the the US's post-70s economic policy has been pretty lackluster. And there does seem to be a real problem that set in around 2000, it has been pretty much worse-to-worse steps since then. The energy trend is related. > And here I thought we did “normal” things like “switch on the light” and notice that an LED still works just as well as an incandescent. How much energy do you think that is saving? Order of magnitude? [0] https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
    - quink 2y ago
      The only graphs the relate energy consumption to anything else within the same graphs are 1) a curve implying we ought to be using 400 kW per capital use of continuously, enough to power hundreds of homes most of the time and 2) one that shows GDP flying off with no regard for per capital use of consumption of power. I feel compelled to ask, how are you using your personal 400 kW today? Surely you must be using that amount since you think it’s vital to your personal prosperity. Is it Bitcoin mining or… honestly I can’t think of anything else? > That would increase measured energy consumption per capita. Not if the water is heated I would have thought is the understood assumption. But if you want to wash them in near enough ice water while pumping a substation into your crypto operation, then you do you. Also, congrats. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bolder claim than calling the US stock market since 1970 an underperformer. Let us know that we evidently don’t, but make sure you’re not backtesting there with 50 years of hindsight. Make a prediction of similar boldness. I’m probably not gonna put money on that though, just wanna put that up my index fund investing front.
      - roenxi 2y ago
        1. It is "per capita" not "per capital". 2. All the graphs relate to energy, energy is the economy. It is literally impossible to fabricate/transport any good or run any service without some sort of energy consumption happening. The reason the energy trend matters so much is because it leads every activity. > I feel compelled to ask, how are you using your personal 400 kW today? There is, and I speak with a great deal of literalness when I say this, no aspect of either of our lifestyles that doesn't involve consuming energy. I suspect you have a poor understanding of what energy is. > Also, congrats. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bolder claim than calling the US stock market since 1970 an underperformer An economy isn't the stock market. And I don't know how you made that mistake since just in another of your post you were complaining that too much money was going to billionaires! The stock market has been going great, the economy has been going so-so trending towards poorly.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

by quink 2y ago

roenxi 2y ago

> So let me get this right, solar panels on the roof, heat pumps, better fridges, and better insulation among other things are a crisis that will lead, in comparison, to the downfall of Western civilisation? Well the data does seem to incline in that direction. Particularly the UK, as far as I can tell it is impossible to be both intellectually honest and believe that a 33% (!) reduction in per capita energy is good for people's living standards. Someone'd have to be wilfully ignorant of Jevons' paradox, the only way to get that drop off is some sort of squeeze in their ability to access energy which isn't fun to live through. I feel for the poor who are being forced to live with that and be told that they're better off and shouldn't believe their lying eyes. It also neatly explains a lot of the political trends the UK has undergone in the last decade like the high debt level and general dissatisfaction with the leadership.

quink 2y ago
Ah yes, the activity of “accessing energy”, the very relatable and not at all abstract real activity that we fellow humans perform multiple times a day. And here I thought we did “normal” things like “switch on the light” and notice that an LED still works just as well as an incandescent. Or some decide to turn on the dishwasher instead of doing the dishes by hand, which does it far more efficiently. Just wondering, since you seem to know, how do I make the money directly come out of the wall? Do I need to turn the crappy old five space heaters all to setting three to get all the money? Or should I just use the reverse cycle AC at a comfortable temperature like a normal person? Also, you’re calling the US’ economic success since 1970 a failure, since that also saw a drop in per capital use of 33%, so I’ll happily trade you all the money you made since 1970 for a pile of wooden logs, seems like that’d be a great deal for you, eh?
- roenxi 2y ago
  > Or some decide to turn on the dishwasher instead of doing the dishes by hand, which does it far more efficiently. That would increase measured energy consumption per capita. > Also, you’re calling the US’ economic success since 1970 a failure They've gone from the world's leading hegemon to arguably 2nd largest economy vs China which is now the world's industrial superpower. And indeed there are a lot of notable turns for the worse [0] in the US that started coming up from the 1970s. I do think there is a case to be made the the US's post-70s economic policy has been pretty lackluster. And there does seem to be a real problem that set in around 2000, it has been pretty much worse-to-worse steps since then. The energy trend is related. > And here I thought we did “normal” things like “switch on the light” and notice that an LED still works just as well as an incandescent. How much energy do you think that is saving? Order of magnitude? [0] https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
  - quink 2y ago
    The only graphs the relate energy consumption to anything else within the same graphs are 1) a curve implying we ought to be using 400 kW per capital use of continuously, enough to power hundreds of homes most of the time and 2) one that shows GDP flying off with no regard for per capital use of consumption of power. I feel compelled to ask, how are you using your personal 400 kW today? Surely you must be using that amount since you think it’s vital to your personal prosperity. Is it Bitcoin mining or… honestly I can’t think of anything else? > That would increase measured energy consumption per capita. Not if the water is heated I would have thought is the understood assumption. But if you want to wash them in near enough ice water while pumping a substation into your crypto operation, then you do you. Also, congrats. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bolder claim than calling the US stock market since 1970 an underperformer. Let us know that we evidently don’t, but make sure you’re not backtesting there with 50 years of hindsight. Make a prediction of similar boldness. I’m probably not gonna put money on that though, just wanna put that up my index fund investing front.
    - roenxi 2y ago
      1. It is "per capita" not "per capital". 2. All the graphs relate to energy, energy is the economy. It is literally impossible to fabricate/transport any good or run any service without some sort of energy consumption happening. The reason the energy trend matters so much is because it leads every activity. > I feel compelled to ask, how are you using your personal 400 kW today? There is, and I speak with a great deal of literalness when I say this, no aspect of either of our lifestyles that doesn't involve consuming energy. I suspect you have a poor understanding of what energy is. > Also, congrats. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bolder claim than calling the US stock market since 1970 an underperformer An economy isn't the stock market. And I don't know how you made that mistake since just in another of your post you were complaining that too much money was going to billionaires! The stock market has been going great, the economy has been going so-so trending towards poorly.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]