3 ms·

I remember that as well -- bloggers got it right, analysts got it wrong. This morning I read "somewhere on the internet" that bloggers were predicting ~$10 whil

I remember that as well -- bloggers got it right, analysts got it wrong. This morning I read "somewhere on the internet" that bloggers were predicting ~$10 while analysts where predicting ~$12. If I didn't just imagine that, this would remarkable in that even the bloggers overestimated.

hkmurakami 14y ago
This reminds me of "The Wisdom of Crowds"[1]. Could it be a case of the masses collectively being more intelligent than the so called experts? [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
- Steko 14y ago
  The experts are generally over-conservative for a reason. The tldr reason is that they get fired for losing people's money so absolute accuracy (where misses are 50% high and 50% low) is not their incentive.
- mrkmcknz 14y ago
  Check out: http://www.estimize.com/ http://www.estimize.com/ Wisdom of Crowds for earnings calls.
elithrar 14y ago
Here's the data for this year - it looks like it was Philip Elmer-DeWitt who may have compiled the data. Interestingly, the independent analysts (oft. "bloggers") were much further off base as an aggregate than the institutional analysts: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/24/all-eyes-on-apples-earnings-estimates-are-sharply-divided/ http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/24/all-eyes-on-apples-ea...