3 ms·

As impressive as this is, it is below analyst consensus, and the stock is down 5% afterhours :-(

elithrar 14y ago
> As impressive as this is, it is below analyst consensus, and the stock is down 5% afterhours :-( This happens every time. Apple exceeds their own guidance; grows at a rate faster than nearly anyone else in the Fortune 500, and yet still fall short of the (insane) analyst guesses (predictions would be unsuitable). I believe Horace Dediu did an article some time ago on amateur vs professional analysts and their track records against Apple's earnings calls. I can't seem to find the link but the degree at which some were off (with regularity) would be concerning if I were paying them for the advice.
- mckilljoy 14y ago
  I remember that as well -- bloggers got it right, analysts got it wrong. This morning I read "somewhere on the internet" that bloggers were predicting ~$10 while analysts where predicting ~$12. If I didn't just imagine that, this would remarkable in that even the bloggers overestimated.
  - hkmurakami 14y ago
    This reminds me of "The Wisdom of Crowds"[1]. Could it be a case of the masses collectively being more intelligent than the so called experts? [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
    - Steko 14y ago
      The experts are generally over-conservative for a reason. The tldr reason is that they get fired for losing people's money so absolute accuracy (where misses are 50% high and 50% low) is not their incentive.
    - mrkmcknz 14y ago
      Check out: http://www.estimize.com/ http://www.estimize.com/ Wisdom of Crowds for earnings calls.
  - elithrar 14y ago
    Here's the data for this year - it looks like it was Philip Elmer-DeWitt who may have compiled the data. Interestingly, the independent analysts (oft. "bloggers") were much further off base as an aggregate than the institutional analysts: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/24/all-eyes-on-apples-earnings-estimates-are-sharply-divided/ http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/24/all-eyes-on-apples-ea...
- acchow 14y ago
  "fall short of the analyst guesses" every time? Not every time. Jan 2011: "Apple turned in results that easily surpassed Street expectations" http://www.cnbc.com/id/41137612/Apple_Profit_Revenue_Outstrip_Wall_Street_Forecasts http://www.cnbc.com/id/41137612/Apple_Profit_Revenue_Outstri... April 2012: "Apple posted quarterly results that blew past expectations" http://www.cnbc.com/id/47161478/Apple_Earnings_Surprise_Why_Was_Wall_Street_So_Wrong http://www.cnbc.com/id/47161478/Apple_Earnings_Surprise_Why_...
antr 14y ago
In line with Apple's guidance. Who should we trust?
- usaar333 14y ago
  Apple's guidance is incredibly conservative. I don't believe they've ever been under their guidance for years. On the other hand, they normally blow it out. The best thing to "trust" is the market. Apple underperformed what the market was expecting. It happens once in awhile..

> As impressive as this is, it is below analyst consensus, and the stock is down 5% afterhours :-( This happens every time. Apple exceeds their own guidance; grows at a rate faster than nearly anyone else in the Fortune 500, and yet still fall short of the (insane) analyst guesses (predictions would be unsuitable). I believe Horace Dediu did an article some time ago on amateur vs professional analysts and their track records against Apple's earnings calls. I can't seem to find the link but the degree at which some were off (with regularity) would be concerning if I were paying them for the advice.

mckilljoy 14y ago
I remember that as well -- bloggers got it right, analysts got it wrong. This morning I read "somewhere on the internet" that bloggers were predicting ~$10 while analysts where predicting ~$12. If I didn't just imagine that, this would remarkable in that even the bloggers overestimated.
- hkmurakami 14y ago
  This reminds me of "The Wisdom of Crowds"[1]. Could it be a case of the masses collectively being more intelligent than the so called experts? [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
  - Steko 14y ago
    The experts are generally over-conservative for a reason. The tldr reason is that they get fired for losing people's money so absolute accuracy (where misses are 50% high and 50% low) is not their incentive.
  - mrkmcknz 14y ago
    Check out: http://www.estimize.com/ http://www.estimize.com/ Wisdom of Crowds for earnings calls.
- elithrar 14y ago
  Here's the data for this year - it looks like it was Philip Elmer-DeWitt who may have compiled the data. Interestingly, the independent analysts (oft. "bloggers") were much further off base as an aggregate than the institutional analysts: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/24/all-eyes-on-apples-earnings-estimates-are-sharply-divided/ http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/24/all-eyes-on-apples-ea...
acchow 14y ago
"fall short of the analyst guesses" every time? Not every time. Jan 2011: "Apple turned in results that easily surpassed Street expectations" http://www.cnbc.com/id/41137612/Apple_Profit_Revenue_Outstrip_Wall_Street_Forecasts http://www.cnbc.com/id/41137612/Apple_Profit_Revenue_Outstri... April 2012: "Apple posted quarterly results that blew past expectations" http://www.cnbc.com/id/47161478/Apple_Earnings_Surprise_Why_Was_Wall_Street_So_Wrong http://www.cnbc.com/id/47161478/Apple_Earnings_Surprise_Why_...

antr 14y ago

In line with Apple's guidance. Who should we trust?

usaar333 14y ago
Apple's guidance is incredibly conservative. I don't believe they've ever been under their guidance for years. On the other hand, they normally blow it out. The best thing to "trust" is the market. Apple underperformed what the market was expecting. It happens once in awhile..