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Ask HN: Could Europe build their own AI infrastructure?

I wonder how Europe is set up for the coming AI race around the world. What would happen if Europe were to be cut off from American supply of GPUs? As far as I know, Europe has control over one company that is involved in the supply chain to build AI hardware: ASML. They build the lithography equipment which is needed to produce the wafers which are needed to produce the processors. Are there companies around the world who can/could build this type of lithography equipment? If Europe loses this piece of control over the AI supply chain, would Europe then be at the mercy of the USA for AI hardware supply? How long would it take for Europe to produce their own GPUs?

belter 2y ago
> What would happen if Europe were to be cut off from American supply of GPUs? What would happen if America would be cut off of EU supply of ASML machines?
- ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
  That is the question I wanted to raise with "Are there companies around the world who can/could build this type of lithography equipment?". How hard would it for the rest of the world to build this type of lithography equipment?
  - belter 2y ago
    ASML? Some would say 10 to 15 years at least. But ASML had/has many Chinese and US employees so both countries probably have copies of the secret sauce. By what I heard their vetting of employees is minimal...
jeffreygoesto 2y ago
What would happen after the rush is over and the machines rot like old mining gear?
shoo 2y ago
if you're referring to Nvidia's GPUs - Nvidia doesn't have its own manufacturing capability, they outsource the semiconductor manufacturing to TSMC. Arguably they're better described as Taiwanese GPUs than American GPUs.
- ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
  Only the chips, right? I guess the rest of the GPU is made elsewhere? As for the chips - TSMC started to also make these in the USA last year. So the USA have brought this part of the manufacturing process inhouse already.
null_investor 2y ago
It doesn't matter. US companies will want to have consumers and Europe has them, so they would like to offer their services in the EU. AI hardware is also produced in China. Americans don't want to talk about it, but Huawei has good inference hardware and software.
- ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
  US companies will want to have consumers Consumers who can pay. If Europe falls behind and does not have the capability to produce goods or services that are in demand in the US and China, the European consumers might want those US/China products and services, but they can't pay them. Look at the German automotive industry. Once they produced something the world wanted. Will they still do that in the age of electric autonomy? Except for ASML's technology, which competitive advantage does the European industry have to stay relevant in international trade?
aristofun 2y ago
No. There is no Europe as a single entity with its own individual agency. Even if only for that reason - the answer is "no". On top of that European governments got very good at banning and regulating things, not so much at innovating or creating a good climate for innovators and entrepreneurs.
BjoernKW 2y ago
In terms of resources currently still available and if they put their will to it: perhaps. It might be an uphill battle, but it could still be possible. However, given the current environment, it's impossible for this to happen, because the EU (which is largely equivalent with Europe in this context) is obsessed with regulating everything to death instead of creating opportunities for future prosperity. They're literally doing the exact opposite of what is needed.
- ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
  What resources are there? Could any company in the EU make the wafers needed to build GPUs for example?
  - BjoernKW 2y ago
    Financial resources, mostly. The EU is still one of the richest regions in the world, the emphasis being on 'still' here. If they don't act now and if they don't act decisively, the EU will be economic backwater in a few years.
    - ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
      What type of financial resources? If you mean Euro balances - that is worth nothing in the context of what Europe can produce. If state currency could be converted to production capabilities, countries could just print money to increase production.
      - BjoernKW 2y ago
        Money. It's as simple as that. Europe (glossing over relatively minor regional differentials here) still is one of the richest places in the world. They just decided to use those resources for the wrong purposes. Again, it's as simple as that.
        ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago

belter 2y ago

> What would happen if Europe were to be cut off from American supply of GPUs? What would happen if America would be cut off of EU supply of ASML machines?

ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
That is the question I wanted to raise with "Are there companies around the world who can/could build this type of lithography equipment?". How hard would it for the rest of the world to build this type of lithography equipment?
- belter 2y ago
  ASML? Some would say 10 to 15 years at least. But ASML had/has many Chinese and US employees so both countries probably have copies of the secret sauce. By what I heard their vetting of employees is minimal...

jeffreygoesto 2y ago

What would happen after the rush is over and the machines rot like old mining gear?

shoo 2y ago

if you're referring to Nvidia's GPUs - Nvidia doesn't have its own manufacturing capability, they outsource the semiconductor manufacturing to TSMC. Arguably they're better described as Taiwanese GPUs than American GPUs.

ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
Only the chips, right? I guess the rest of the GPU is made elsewhere? As for the chips - TSMC started to also make these in the USA last year. So the USA have brought this part of the manufacturing process inhouse already.

null_investor 2y ago

It doesn't matter. US companies will want to have consumers and Europe has them, so they would like to offer their services in the EU. AI hardware is also produced in China. Americans don't want to talk about it, but Huawei has good inference hardware and software.

ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
US companies will want to have consumers Consumers who can pay. If Europe falls behind and does not have the capability to produce goods or services that are in demand in the US and China, the European consumers might want those US/China products and services, but they can't pay them. Look at the German automotive industry. Once they produced something the world wanted. Will they still do that in the age of electric autonomy? Except for ASML's technology, which competitive advantage does the European industry have to stay relevant in international trade?

aristofun 2y ago

No. There is no Europe as a single entity with its own individual agency. Even if only for that reason - the answer is "no". On top of that European governments got very good at banning and regulating things, not so much at innovating or creating a good climate for innovators and entrepreneurs.

BjoernKW 2y ago

In terms of resources currently still available and if they put their will to it: perhaps. It might be an uphill battle, but it could still be possible. However, given the current environment, it's impossible for this to happen, because the EU (which is largely equivalent with Europe in this context) is obsessed with regulating everything to death instead of creating opportunities for future prosperity. They're literally doing the exact opposite of what is needed.

ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
What resources are there? Could any company in the EU make the wafers needed to build GPUs for example?
- BjoernKW 2y ago
  Financial resources, mostly. The EU is still one of the richest regions in the world, the emphasis being on 'still' here. If they don't act now and if they don't act decisively, the EU will be economic backwater in a few years.
  - ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
    What type of financial resources? If you mean Euro balances - that is worth nothing in the context of what Europe can produce. If state currency could be converted to production capabilities, countries could just print money to increase production.
    - BjoernKW 2y ago
      Money. It's as simple as that. Europe (glossing over relatively minor regional differentials here) still is one of the richest places in the world. They just decided to use those resources for the wrong purposes. Again, it's as simple as that.
      - ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago