4 ms·

I've been poking at Uber forums and other places, and I'm noticing that a _lot_ of people are underestimating this. Waymo is growing by >100%/year at the moment

by _ea1k 2y ago

I've been poking at Uber forums and other places, and I'm noticing that a _lot_ of people are underestimating this. Waymo is growing by >100%/year at the moment and this is a significant part of that growth. It'll make a huge dent in demand for Uber/Lyft over the next five years.

sadeshmukh 2y ago
Interestingly, they're currently partnering with Uber in Florida if I remember correctly.
jillesvangurp 2y ago
Unless those companies stumble on competing solutions that they can use to level the playing field. Waymo doesn't have this market to itself in perpetuity. Uber and Lyft basically have lots of revenue and can afford to take some bets on experimenting with different partners for self driving at a relatively low risk. There are plenty of other companies experimenting with self driving taxis, cars, trucks, etc. And not just in the US. China is probably a lot further than Waymo on this front. In the end it boils down to cost at scale. Waymo has some early learnings for this, which is great, but it's no guarantee that somebody else won't come along and match what they are doing. Or massively improve on what and how they are doing what they are doing. Tesla is the controversial one to mention in this context but I no longer believe that they'll get there first or exclusively. They might still get there. And maybe it won't even take that long. But they have a lot to prove and there are lots of other companies field testing working taxis with real passengers (unlike Tesla) at this point. I wouldn't count Uber out. I'd say they are well aware of the challenges here and have a huge stake in ensuring that there will be multiple autonomy providers for them to choose from that all need the same thing to succeed: access to paying customers. Which is something that Uber has. The near future is likely to be mostly non-autonomous with specific geofences running experiments with autonomous driving in a limited number of places. Uber works in all those places and all they need is access to autonomous options in areas as that becomes available. They don't need to own or develop this in house. They just need access and some revenue share deal. More providers means more competitive deals. I wouldn't be surprised to seem them close multiple, non-exclusive deals on this front in the next years. Possibly even with Waymo or Tesla. Or both. And then some.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Uber and Lyft basically have lots of revenue Waymo is level with Lyft in San Francisco [1]. > plenty of other companies experimenting with self driving taxis, cars, trucks, etc. None with a track record. The only wild card is Tesla. [1] https://www.ktvu.com/news/waymo-ridership-skyrocketed-in-sf-this-year-heres-how-much https://www.ktvu.com/news/waymo-ridership-skyrocketed-in-sf-...
  - jillesvangurp 2y ago
    Chinese autonomous deployments are pretty substantial at this point. And compared to places like Beijing, San Francisco is a bit of a small & rural village. China is rolling out at a faster pace than Waymo. More vehicles, more cities, more companies, larger cities, etc.
- miki123211 2y ago
  I wouldn't be surprised if Uber/Lyft essentially end up as aggregators for autonomous cars. You'll have multiple (local) companies, possibly Uber franchisees, maintaining autonomous fleets and doing the low-margin work of car cleaning, acquiring the vehicles, servicing them etc. Uber will be the interface between the passenger and those companies. Uber could even keep some human drivers for peak-traffic situations that it would be uneconomical for a ppurely autonomous fleet to handle.

by _ea1k 2y ago

sadeshmukh 2y ago

Interestingly, they're currently partnering with Uber in Florida if I remember correctly.

jillesvangurp 2y ago

Unless those companies stumble on competing solutions that they can use to level the playing field. Waymo doesn't have this market to itself in perpetuity. Uber and Lyft basically have lots of revenue and can afford to take some bets on experimenting with different partners for self driving at a relatively low risk. There are plenty of other companies experimenting with self driving taxis, cars, trucks, etc. And not just in the US. China is probably a lot further than Waymo on this front. In the end it boils down to cost at scale. Waymo has some early learnings for this, which is great, but it's no guarantee that somebody else won't come along and match what they are doing. Or massively improve on what and how they are doing what they are doing. Tesla is the controversial one to mention in this context but I no longer believe that they'll get there first or exclusively. They might still get there. And maybe it won't even take that long. But they have a lot to prove and there are lots of other companies field testing working taxis with real passengers (unlike Tesla) at this point. I wouldn't count Uber out. I'd say they are well aware of the challenges here and have a huge stake in ensuring that there will be multiple autonomy providers for them to choose from that all need the same thing to succeed: access to paying customers. Which is something that Uber has. The near future is likely to be mostly non-autonomous with specific geofences running experiments with autonomous driving in a limited number of places. Uber works in all those places and all they need is access to autonomous options in areas as that becomes available. They don't need to own or develop this in house. They just need access and some revenue share deal. More providers means more competitive deals. I wouldn't be surprised to seem them close multiple, non-exclusive deals on this front in the next years. Possibly even with Waymo or Tesla. Or both. And then some.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Uber and Lyft basically have lots of revenue Waymo is level with Lyft in San Francisco [1]. > plenty of other companies experimenting with self driving taxis, cars, trucks, etc. None with a track record. The only wild card is Tesla. [1] https://www.ktvu.com/news/waymo-ridership-skyrocketed-in-sf-this-year-heres-how-much https://www.ktvu.com/news/waymo-ridership-skyrocketed-in-sf-...
- jillesvangurp 2y ago
  Chinese autonomous deployments are pretty substantial at this point. And compared to places like Beijing, San Francisco is a bit of a small & rural village. China is rolling out at a faster pace than Waymo. More vehicles, more cities, more companies, larger cities, etc.
miki123211 2y ago
I wouldn't be surprised if Uber/Lyft essentially end up as aggregators for autonomous cars. You'll have multiple (local) companies, possibly Uber franchisees, maintaining autonomous fleets and doing the low-margin work of car cleaning, acquiring the vehicles, servicing them etc. Uber will be the interface between the passenger and those companies. Uber could even keep some human drivers for peak-traffic situations that it would be uneconomical for a ppurely autonomous fleet to handle.