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I'm convinced that Waymo will quietly continue to roll out self driving taxi's to ever increasing areas in "beta" until one day they're covering a significant p

I'm convinced that Waymo will quietly continue to roll out self driving taxi's to ever increasing areas in "beta" until one day they're covering a significant percentage of the most profitable areas to be a taxi in. Instead of trying for universal self driving, they're going to prioritise being self driving taxi's for the most profitable areas.

fooblaster 2y ago
yeah, that's exactly what they are going to do. It's how Uber worked as well.
kart23 2y ago
Are they even profitable in SF or LA? I don't disagree with you, but if being profitable means charging more than Uber/Lyft and having slower trips on average than a human, thats not gonna work out too well. And these are the highest CoL cities in the us, meaning that if its not profitable there, might not be profitable anywhere.
- asdasdsddd 2y ago
  >but if being profitable means charging more than Uber/Lyft and having slower trips on average than a human thats just a function of the numbers of cars on the road
- dageshi 2y ago
  I'm pretty certain they won't undercut Uber or other taxi services any time soon because they don't want to provoke the political headache that comes with it. That type of politics could shutdown their licenses, I'm sure they want to avoid that at all costs so they're pricing above existing services. What they may do is refuse to raise prices and eventually inflation will make them the cheapest.
  - Rodeoclash 2y ago
    They can charge more in Melbourne and I'll happily pay it to avoid drivers that cancel the trip after accepting or accept the trip and drive away from me until I cancel.
  - RivieraKid 2y ago
    Charging about as much as their competitors is probably the profit-maximizing strategy.
  - standardUser 2y ago
    They're already the cheapest if they match prices because there is no tip required. In the long run they'll inevitably be cheaper because of higher utilization of their vehicles and (vastly) lower labor costs.
    - rwmj 2y ago
      This is a misunderstanding of the economics of taxi firms. Taxi companies don't pay for purchase or depreciation of their cars (the drivers do), but Waymo does.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - standardUser 2y ago
        There are no drivers with Waymo. Believe it or not, a living annual wage for a person (or close to it) is vastly more expensive than the annual maintenance and depreciation on even a very expensive vehicle.
- aiauthoritydev 2y ago
  Operational profits is not really a goal for Waymo in near term. The current goal is to be many years ahead of competition, getting permits to operate in major profitable cities with profitable routes. The cost of a Waymo car right now is around $150K. Soon, Waymo will build its own cars (with partnership with some car manufacturer) from scratch which will bring this cost to around $40K. currently WayMo has around 2 people per car employed in service roles which will be like 2 people per 50 cars. At that point they will be swimming in profits.
  - ugh123 2y ago
    > currently WayMo has around 2 people per car employed in service roles Do you have a source for this? I'm curious about their operations
    - RivieraKid 2y ago
      It's almost certainly not true.
  - rob74 2y ago
    > The current goal is to be many years ahead of competition The problem with this is that one of their competitors (Tesla) now has very powerful friends in the government which are certainly not above using that power in their favor...
    - dageshi 2y ago
      This is another reason why I think they will remain low key. They'll perpetually be in "beta" until they're so ubiquitous that the idea of getting rid of them is unthinkable.
- spjt 2y ago
  I would pay more for a slower ride just to avoid having to pay a tip.
  - lopkeny12ko 2y ago
    You will certainly be happy to learn that Waymo is in fact introducing tipping. https://x.com/wongmjane/status/1884136644238008334 https://x.com/wongmjane/status/1884136644238008334
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      It goes to a charity of the rider's choice [1]. [1] https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/28/waymo-is-reportedly-building-a-charity-tipping-feature-into-its-robotaxi-app/ https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/28/waymo-is-reportedly-buildi...
  - rwmj 2y ago
    I will pay more to avoid having to talk to the driver. Last taxi I took, the driver started talking to me about all the different world religions.
- AlotOfReading 2y ago
  They're probably within reasonable distance of gross profit, and much farther from net profit because of the imbalance between their current fleet size and the massive ongoing manufacturing and R&D costs. The organizational goal is not immediate net profits though. Take this with the grain of salt it deserves. No one relying solely on publicly available information can give you anything more than highly speculative guesses.
- jedberg 2y ago
  Why do you think the trips are slower than a human? I've only taken one Waymo trip (and my wife two) but in each case it didn't feel any slower than a Lyft. But it felt a lot safer! They definitely drive better than any human Lyft driver I've ever had. And the prices seems to roughly match Uber/Lyft. Sometimes they're higher sometimes lower. The one ride I took I chose the more expensive Waymo just for the better experience. You don't have to worry about what the driver might say or do that makes you uncomfortable or unsafe.
  - someperson 2y ago
    Waymos are terrible at taking unprotected left turns into bumper to bumper traffic during peak hour. They aren't aggressive like a normal driver when traffic is stopped and there's a clear but small gap that would result in the car being at an angle crossing traffic. The lidar can't see any gap between cars when trying to turn into a more distant lane, so any obstruction to a close lane due to traffic kills them. Source: been stuck in and observed Waymo in this situation for 10+ minutes several times. A human driver is willing to make the turn much sooner. Don't take a Waymo if you're in a hurry and the route will have such a left turns.
    - strifey 2y ago
      Anecdotally, they've gotten much more proactive at taking unprotected lefts in my experience.
      - pesus 2y ago
        They seem to be getting more proactive in general. I was surprised last night when the one I was in went full barrel through a light that was already yellow and turned red while we were still in the intersection.
        usefulcat 2y ago
        I’ll definitely take that over the Lyft driver I once had who went through a red light 1-2 seconds after it turned red. Not that that’s typical for ride share drivers in my area, but still.
- Animats 2y ago
  Maybe not profitable yet. But each generation Waymo car seems to cost about half of the previous generation.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
RivieraKid 2y ago
They're already covering 0.25% of total US paved road network per my napkin calculation.
danvoell 2y ago
I feel like some people have been using "most profitable areas" instead of saying dense urban areas and upset that it might take a while to reach rural and suburban areas. Is that what you are saying? What business is not in the business of pursuing the most plausible profitable direction first?
- HPMOR 2y ago
  Most startups actually.
- dageshi 2y ago
  I think the general public has believed that self driving would arrive as some big bang moment where it just "worked" in 95%+ of environments where people drive. One morning there'd be an announcement it was cracked and then in six months you'd be able to buy a new car with it. I don't think from either a business, technical or legal perspective google ever wants to sell or license their tech directly to a car being sold to the public. They want to run a taxi service, they plan on running a taxi service, they're never going to sell it directly to consumers but they don't want consumers thinking about the implications of that. They're just going to keep expanding Waymo in the background till it's ubiquitous.
  - kevlened 2y ago
    This doesn't align with what they've said publicly. The intent is to eventually make this technology available to own: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCY214KiwNs&t=1329s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCY214KiwNs&t=1329s
    - dageshi 2y ago
      Yes, I know they've said that. I don't believe them. Or rather even if they do sell them I think it will be at a point where their robo taxi's are complete ubiquitous already.
    - dtmooreiv 2y ago
      I think you mean their stated intent is to eventually make this technology available to own (I haven’t watched the video you linked but I’m going to charitably assume they say what you’re asserting). I, and many others, are past the point of trusting their words.
simonw 2y ago
I honestly don't understand the appeal of a private self-driving vehicle as opposed to a taxi-style rental service. I like that Waymo has human backup! Knowing that if the car gets into a tricky situation there's someone who can remote control it back out again is very reassuring. I also like not having to think about where it parks, what it's doing when I'm not in it etc.
- jedberg 2y ago
  I would love to have one! Imagine all the benefits you just listed, but it's just mine so I can keep my stuff in it. Maybe my car seat or my work equipment or my shopping bags. I get where I'm going and I send it over the the parking garage a mile away that's cheap, and then summon it back when I'm done with my event, so I never have to circle for parking. If enough people to it, they would probably develop a protocol so that they can be parked at a lot that is super dense and it's a puzzle to get the cars in and out. And they could still be sold with remote human backup services (as well as giving you the owner the ability to take over if you want to). I could also send it on errands. Go to Target and pick up my curbside order. Go to the pizza place and have them drop it on the front seat. Pick up my kid from school and bring her home. Go pick up my mother in law and bring her to my house so I don't have to go get her! And I could use it to drive me to my parents house 350 miles away while I sleep. I can think of a million reasons I'd want one.
  - AlotOfReading 2y ago
    Maintaining an autonomous vehicle comes with a significantly higher maintenance burden than a regular car right now. Even if the sticker price were the same, would you be willing to check the air pressure regularly, take the vehicle in for calibration, clean the sensors, do software updates, implement the legal reporting responsibilities, etc? That's the current reality. Most people don't want that and there's no market for it. Consumers (rightly) expect a vehicle that just works. It's still early days for this technology and building something that works as reliably/independently as the rest of a car isn't possible yet.
    - 2y ago
Animats 2y ago
> 'm convinced that Waymo will quietly continue to roll out self driving taxi's to ever increasing areas in "beta" until one day they're covering a significant percentage of the most profitable areas to be a taxi in. Makes sense. Ten cities are most of the US taxi market.[1] New York City alone is about a third. New York will be tough in several directions, but Waymo will probably succeed there eventually. Meanwhile, they can just scale up in LA. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxis_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxis_of_the_United_States

fooblaster 2y ago

yeah, that's exactly what they are going to do. It's how Uber worked as well.

kart23 2y ago

Are they even profitable in SF or LA? I don't disagree with you, but if being profitable means charging more than Uber/Lyft and having slower trips on average than a human, thats not gonna work out too well. And these are the highest CoL cities in the us, meaning that if its not profitable there, might not be profitable anywhere.

asdasdsddd 2y ago
>but if being profitable means charging more than Uber/Lyft and having slower trips on average than a human thats just a function of the numbers of cars on the road
dageshi 2y ago
I'm pretty certain they won't undercut Uber or other taxi services any time soon because they don't want to provoke the political headache that comes with it. That type of politics could shutdown their licenses, I'm sure they want to avoid that at all costs so they're pricing above existing services. What they may do is refuse to raise prices and eventually inflation will make them the cheapest.
- Rodeoclash 2y ago
  They can charge more in Melbourne and I'll happily pay it to avoid drivers that cancel the trip after accepting or accept the trip and drive away from me until I cancel.
- RivieraKid 2y ago
  Charging about as much as their competitors is probably the profit-maximizing strategy.
- standardUser 2y ago
  They're already the cheapest if they match prices because there is no tip required. In the long run they'll inevitably be cheaper because of higher utilization of their vehicles and (vastly) lower labor costs.
  - rwmj 2y ago
    This is a misunderstanding of the economics of taxi firms. Taxi companies don't pay for purchase or depreciation of their cars (the drivers do), but Waymo does.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - standardUser 2y ago
      There are no drivers with Waymo. Believe it or not, a living annual wage for a person (or close to it) is vastly more expensive than the annual maintenance and depreciation on even a very expensive vehicle.
aiauthoritydev 2y ago
Operational profits is not really a goal for Waymo in near term. The current goal is to be many years ahead of competition, getting permits to operate in major profitable cities with profitable routes. The cost of a Waymo car right now is around $150K. Soon, Waymo will build its own cars (with partnership with some car manufacturer) from scratch which will bring this cost to around $40K. currently WayMo has around 2 people per car employed in service roles which will be like 2 people per 50 cars. At that point they will be swimming in profits.
- ugh123 2y ago
  > currently WayMo has around 2 people per car employed in service roles Do you have a source for this? I'm curious about their operations
  - RivieraKid 2y ago
    It's almost certainly not true.
- rob74 2y ago
  > The current goal is to be many years ahead of competition The problem with this is that one of their competitors (Tesla) now has very powerful friends in the government which are certainly not above using that power in their favor...
  - dageshi 2y ago
    This is another reason why I think they will remain low key. They'll perpetually be in "beta" until they're so ubiquitous that the idea of getting rid of them is unthinkable.
spjt 2y ago
I would pay more for a slower ride just to avoid having to pay a tip.
- lopkeny12ko 2y ago
  You will certainly be happy to learn that Waymo is in fact introducing tipping. https://x.com/wongmjane/status/1884136644238008334 https://x.com/wongmjane/status/1884136644238008334
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    It goes to a charity of the rider's choice [1]. [1] https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/28/waymo-is-reportedly-building-a-charity-tipping-feature-into-its-robotaxi-app/ https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/28/waymo-is-reportedly-buildi...
- rwmj 2y ago
  I will pay more to avoid having to talk to the driver. Last taxi I took, the driver started talking to me about all the different world religions.
AlotOfReading 2y ago
They're probably within reasonable distance of gross profit, and much farther from net profit because of the imbalance between their current fleet size and the massive ongoing manufacturing and R&D costs. The organizational goal is not immediate net profits though. Take this with the grain of salt it deserves. No one relying solely on publicly available information can give you anything more than highly speculative guesses.
jedberg 2y ago
Why do you think the trips are slower than a human? I've only taken one Waymo trip (and my wife two) but in each case it didn't feel any slower than a Lyft. But it felt a lot safer! They definitely drive better than any human Lyft driver I've ever had. And the prices seems to roughly match Uber/Lyft. Sometimes they're higher sometimes lower. The one ride I took I chose the more expensive Waymo just for the better experience. You don't have to worry about what the driver might say or do that makes you uncomfortable or unsafe.
- someperson 2y ago
  Waymos are terrible at taking unprotected left turns into bumper to bumper traffic during peak hour. They aren't aggressive like a normal driver when traffic is stopped and there's a clear but small gap that would result in the car being at an angle crossing traffic. The lidar can't see any gap between cars when trying to turn into a more distant lane, so any obstruction to a close lane due to traffic kills them. Source: been stuck in and observed Waymo in this situation for 10+ minutes several times. A human driver is willing to make the turn much sooner. Don't take a Waymo if you're in a hurry and the route will have such a left turns.
  - strifey 2y ago
    Anecdotally, they've gotten much more proactive at taking unprotected lefts in my experience.
    - pesus 2y ago
      They seem to be getting more proactive in general. I was surprised last night when the one I was in went full barrel through a light that was already yellow and turned red while we were still in the intersection.
      - usefulcat 2y ago
        I’ll definitely take that over the Lyft driver I once had who went through a red light 1-2 seconds after it turned red. Not that that’s typical for ride share drivers in my area, but still.
Animats 2y ago
Maybe not profitable yet. But each generation Waymo car seems to cost about half of the previous generation.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

RivieraKid 2y ago

They're already covering 0.25% of total US paved road network per my napkin calculation.

danvoell 2y ago

I feel like some people have been using "most profitable areas" instead of saying dense urban areas and upset that it might take a while to reach rural and suburban areas. Is that what you are saying? What business is not in the business of pursuing the most plausible profitable direction first?

HPMOR 2y ago
Most startups actually.
dageshi 2y ago
I think the general public has believed that self driving would arrive as some big bang moment where it just "worked" in 95%+ of environments where people drive. One morning there'd be an announcement it was cracked and then in six months you'd be able to buy a new car with it. I don't think from either a business, technical or legal perspective google ever wants to sell or license their tech directly to a car being sold to the public. They want to run a taxi service, they plan on running a taxi service, they're never going to sell it directly to consumers but they don't want consumers thinking about the implications of that. They're just going to keep expanding Waymo in the background till it's ubiquitous.
- kevlened 2y ago
  This doesn't align with what they've said publicly. The intent is to eventually make this technology available to own: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCY214KiwNs&t=1329s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCY214KiwNs&t=1329s
  - dageshi 2y ago
    Yes, I know they've said that. I don't believe them. Or rather even if they do sell them I think it will be at a point where their robo taxi's are complete ubiquitous already.
  - dtmooreiv 2y ago
    I think you mean their stated intent is to eventually make this technology available to own (I haven’t watched the video you linked but I’m going to charitably assume they say what you’re asserting). I, and many others, are past the point of trusting their words.

simonw 2y ago

I honestly don't understand the appeal of a private self-driving vehicle as opposed to a taxi-style rental service. I like that Waymo has human backup! Knowing that if the car gets into a tricky situation there's someone who can remote control it back out again is very reassuring. I also like not having to think about where it parks, what it's doing when I'm not in it etc.

jedberg 2y ago
I would love to have one! Imagine all the benefits you just listed, but it's just mine so I can keep my stuff in it. Maybe my car seat or my work equipment or my shopping bags. I get where I'm going and I send it over the the parking garage a mile away that's cheap, and then summon it back when I'm done with my event, so I never have to circle for parking. If enough people to it, they would probably develop a protocol so that they can be parked at a lot that is super dense and it's a puzzle to get the cars in and out. And they could still be sold with remote human backup services (as well as giving you the owner the ability to take over if you want to). I could also send it on errands. Go to Target and pick up my curbside order. Go to the pizza place and have them drop it on the front seat. Pick up my kid from school and bring her home. Go pick up my mother in law and bring her to my house so I don't have to go get her! And I could use it to drive me to my parents house 350 miles away while I sleep. I can think of a million reasons I'd want one.
- AlotOfReading 2y ago
  Maintaining an autonomous vehicle comes with a significantly higher maintenance burden than a regular car right now. Even if the sticker price were the same, would you be willing to check the air pressure regularly, take the vehicle in for calibration, clean the sensors, do software updates, implement the legal reporting responsibilities, etc? That's the current reality. Most people don't want that and there's no market for it. Consumers (rightly) expect a vehicle that just works. It's still early days for this technology and building something that works as reliably/independently as the rest of a car isn't possible yet.
  - 2y ago

Animats 2y ago

> 'm convinced that Waymo will quietly continue to roll out self driving taxi's to ever increasing areas in "beta" until one day they're covering a significant percentage of the most profitable areas to be a taxi in. Makes sense. Ten cities are most of the US taxi market.[1] New York City alone is about a third. New York will be tough in several directions, but Waymo will probably succeed there eventually. Meanwhile, they can just scale up in LA. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxis_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxis_of_the_United_States