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Are people getting hung up on NVDA's fall? It feels like most aren't drawing direct logical links - the Jevons paradox doesn't apply directly to stock prices.
by creamyhorror 2y ago
Are people getting hung up on NVDA's fall? It feels like most aren't drawing direct logical links - the Jevons paradox doesn't apply directly to stock prices.
I think the situation is fairly clear with some understanding of finance / equity markets. My analysis of the market and competitive situation:
Deepseek's cheaper LLM services + providing open models for other hosts to provide
=> overall prices for using LLM services will fall due to competition (lower prices + more hosts entering the market); AI users won't pay so much for LLM services
=> the major LLM hosts/providers won't be able to project such high revenues or even have the funds to purchase as many GPUs (they will receive less capital investment to buy GPUs since revenues per dollar invested are lower; their stock valuations will fall)
=> corporate demand for Nvidia cards will fall (AND consumer demand will not rise as much to counteract it for multiple reasons)
On the basis of this possible logic, portfolio managers and algorithms project lower growth/revenue for Nvidia and sell off its stock, setting off the usual chain reaction as other managers notice the downward price action and follow suit in order to stop further losses.
Now, if the new hosts entering the market with lower prices attract significantly more users (instead of merely competing away margins) as we might expect by the paradox, then demand for GPUs might grow instead of shrink instead. If more portfolio managers think this is likely, then it's likely for NVDA's price to recover, and it would be wise to get back into the stock once the worst of the fall is over.
- crazygringo 2y agoNo, this isn't directly about Nvidia or stock prices at all -- it's about the emergence of much lower-cost AI models. So the way Jevon's paradox could apply is that if an AI model only costs 10% of the energy+GPU to train (or run), then we might not get 90% energy+GPU savings... we might actually wind up consuming more energy+GPU on the whole because the models become so much cheaper, we use them more than 10x as much. Obviously this will affect Nvidia's price, but this principle absolutely does not apply to stock prices directly.
- empath75 2y agoThe way the market reacted is completely illogical. If Nvidia announced a new chip that was 10x more effective at the same price, the market would be like WOW they're going to sell so many of those! But a software advance that achieves the same effect somehow causes the opposite reaction.
- aurareturn 2y agoExactly. The only thing that matters is AI adoption rate and training scaling laws right now.